Pittsburgh @ Texas Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.353) provides evidence that Oneil Cruz has suffered from bad luck this year with his .330 actual wOBA. Oneil Cruz has compiled a .266 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. With a .353 BABIP this year, Oneil Cruz finds himself in the 96th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 88th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Nathaniel Lowe is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Nathaniel Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Nathaniel Lowe will hold that advantage in today's game. By putting up a 1.72 K/BB rate this year, Nathaniel Lowe has displayed strong plate discipline, checking in at the 87th percentile.

Josh Smith is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. Batting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Josh Smith will have an edge today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Josh Smith will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ranking in the 77th percentile, Josh Smith sits with a .337 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year. Josh Smith has posted a .266 batting average this year, checking in at the 76th percentile.

Corey Seager projects as the 8th-best batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Corey Seager is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Corey Seager will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game. Corey Seager will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Corey Seager's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 16.7% to 21.9%.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wyatt Langford will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Wyatt Langford has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 7.7% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the last week's worth of games. Wyatt Langford has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 91.5-mph. Over the last week, Wyatt Langford's 27.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Leody Taveras in the 78th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Leody Taveras will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past two weeks, Leody Taveras's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.8%. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Leody Taveras has had some very poor luck this year. His .282 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .323.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Marcus Semien ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Marcus Semien is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game. Marcus Semien will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Marcus Semien's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 41.9% to 47.1%. Marcus Semien's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, going from 47.1% on the season to 69.6% over the last 7 days.

Jonah Heim will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adolis Garcia is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Adolis Garcia will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Adolis Garcia's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.6% up to 30%. Adolis Garcia has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph to 97.1-mph over the last 7 days.

When it comes to his BABIP ability, Josh Jung is projected as the 18th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Josh Jung will hold that advantage in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.9°, Josh Jung has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 21.6° mark over the past 7 days. Last year, Josh Jung had an average launch angle of 14.8° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 19.3°. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Josh Jung grades out in the 79th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .266.

Joey Bart is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Joey Bart will hold the platoon advantage over Cody Bradford today. Joey Bart has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 11.3% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last 7 days. Joey Bart has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92.7-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 89.7-mph figure. In the past 7 days, Joey Bart's 50% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Bryan De La Cruz is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Bryan De La Cruz will have the handedness advantage over Cody Bradford today. Last year, Bryan De La Cruz had an average launch angle of 12.3° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 17.6°. Despite posting a .290 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Bryan De La Cruz has had bad variance on his side given the .024 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .314.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. Using Statcast data, Bryan Reynolds is in the 82nd percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .343. Using Statcast data, Bryan Reynolds ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .268. Sporting a .345 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Bryan Reynolds is ranked in the 83rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Batting from the opposite that Cody Bradford throws from, Jared Triolo will have an advantage today. Over the last week, Jared Triolo's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.5% up to 40%. Jared Triolo has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.5-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal mark of 89.8-mph. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.240) suggests that Jared Triolo has been unlucky this year with his .201 actual batting average.

Hitting from the opposite that Cody Bradford throws from, Michael A. Taylor will have an advantage in today's game. Despite posting a .247 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Michael A. Taylor has had bad variance on his side given the .039 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .286.

The switch-hitting Yasmani Grandal will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Cody Bradford. Yasmani Grandal has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.1-mph average to last year's 87.9-mph figure. Yasmani Grandal has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 101.4-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 92.2-mph. Compared to his seasonal average of 10.5°, Yasmani Grandal has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 34° angle in the last week's worth of games.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Carson Kelly will hold that advantage in today's game. Carson Kelly has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 91.9-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 88.5-mph average. Carson Kelly has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93.1-mph average to last year's 90.3-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today. Batting from the opposite that Cody Bradford throws from, Isiah Kiner-Falefa will have an edge today. Extreme flyball bats like Isiah Kiner-Falefa are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Cody Bradford. Over the last 7 days, Isiah Kiner-Falefa's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal mark of 87.4 mph to 82.5 mph.

Connor Joe is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Cody Bradford throws from, Connor Joe will have an advantage in today's matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Cody Bradford throws from, Alika Williams will have an advantage in today's game. In terms of his batting average, Alika Williams has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .207 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .239. Alika Williams grades out in the 94th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (50% rate since the start of last season).