Final OT Nov 21
DET 121 -2.0 o222.0
CHA 123 2.0 u222.0
Final Nov 21
MIN 105 -7.0 o226.0
TOR 110 7.0 u226.0
Final Nov 21
UTA 118 3.0 o224.0
SA 126 -3.0 u224.0
Final Nov 21
ORL 119 5.0 o216.0
LAL 118 -5.0 u216.0
Miami 8th Eastern Conference44-38
Boston 2nd Eastern Conference57-25

Miami @ Boston props

TD Garden

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Derrick White Points Scored Props • Boston

D. White
point guard PG • Boston
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.9
Best Odds
Over
-155
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
11.9
Best Odds
Over
-155
Projection Rating

Derrick White has successfully made 1.8 three-pointers per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 79th percentile among all players in the league. The Boston Celtics rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year. The matchup vs. the Heat is a strong one for attempts from beyond the arc; the opposing team's starting SGs have totaled the 30th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.9). The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). Derrick White has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 13.4% more than he's put through the net over the course of the year.

Derrick White

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.9
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.9

Derrick White has successfully made 1.8 three-pointers per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 79th percentile among all players in the league. The Boston Celtics rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year. The matchup vs. the Heat is a strong one for attempts from beyond the arc; the opposing team's starting SGs have totaled the 30th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.9). The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). Derrick White has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 13.4% more than he's put through the net over the course of the year.

Max Strus Points Scored Props • Miami

M. Strus
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.3
Best Odds
Under
-130
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.3
Best Odds
Under
-130
Projection Rating

The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home. The Celtics have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists). Max Strus will not possess the home court advantage in this game. Playing while traveling usually lowers player production in all facets of the game.

Max Strus

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.3
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.3

The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home. The Celtics have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists). Max Strus will not possess the home court advantage in this game. Playing while traveling usually lowers player production in all facets of the game.

Marcus Smart Points Scored Props • Boston

M. Smart
point guard PG • Boston
Prop
14.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.3
Best Odds
Under
-128
Prop
14.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.3
Best Odds
Under
-128
Projection Rating

Marcus Smart has accumulated 2.7 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the highest-fouling players in the league (88th percentile). The matchup vs. Miami is a challenging one for field goals; when the Heat are the visiting team, the other team's starting PGs have totaled the 14th-least baskets per game in the league this year (5.7). The Boston Celtics have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Heat have played at the slowest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home city, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Celtics. The Boston Celtics rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Marcus Smart

Prop: 14.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.3
Prop:
14.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.3

Marcus Smart has accumulated 2.7 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the highest-fouling players in the league (88th percentile). The matchup vs. Miami is a challenging one for field goals; when the Heat are the visiting team, the other team's starting PGs have totaled the 14th-least baskets per game in the league this year (5.7). The Boston Celtics have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Heat have played at the slowest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home city, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Celtics. The Boston Celtics rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Kyle Lowry Points Scored Props • Miami

K. Lowry
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.1
Best Odds
Under
-112
Prop
10.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.1
Best Odds
Under
-112
Projection Rating

Kyle Lowry has tallied 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (85th percentile). The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home. The Celtics have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists). Kyle Lowry will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling generally worsens player performance for all stats.

Kyle Lowry

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.1
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.1

Kyle Lowry has tallied 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (85th percentile). The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home. The Celtics have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists). Kyle Lowry will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling generally worsens player performance for all stats.

Kevin Love Points Scored Props • Miami

K. Love
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.2
Best Odds
Over
-127
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.2
Best Odds
Over
-127
Projection Rating

Kevin Love has attempted 6.4 threes per game over the last 5 games while playing on the road, 1.4 more than he's attempted overall this season on the road. The Miami Heat rank as the 2nd-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage in terms of 3-point attempts. While playing at home, the Celtics have allowed the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (7.2) in the NBA to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Kevin Love

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.2
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.2

Kevin Love has attempted 6.4 threes per game over the last 5 games while playing on the road, 1.4 more than he's attempted overall this season on the road. The Miami Heat rank as the 2nd-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage in terms of 3-point attempts. While playing at home, the Celtics have allowed the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (7.2) in the NBA to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Malcolm Brogdon Points Scored Props • Boston

M. Brogdon
shooting guard SG • Boston
Prop
14.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.4
Best Odds
Under
-110
Prop
14.5 Points Scored
Projection
13.4
Best Odds
Under
-110
Projection Rating

The matchup vs. Miami is a challenging one for field goals; when the Heat are the visiting team, the other team's starting PGs have totaled the 14th-least baskets per game in the league this year (5.7). The Boston Celtics have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Heat have played at the slowest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home city, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Celtics. The Boston Celtics rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). Malcolm Brogdon has attempted just 2.6 free throws per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 4.6 rate last season.

Malcolm Brogdon

Prop: 14.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.4
Prop:
14.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.4

The matchup vs. Miami is a challenging one for field goals; when the Heat are the visiting team, the other team's starting PGs have totaled the 14th-least baskets per game in the league this year (5.7). The Boston Celtics have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Heat have played at the slowest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home city, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Celtics. The Boston Celtics rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). Malcolm Brogdon has attempted just 2.6 free throws per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 4.6 rate last season.

Jayson Tatum Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Tatum
small forward SF • Boston
Prop
28.5
Points Scored
Projection
30.4
Best Odds
Over
-119
Prop
28.5 Points Scored
Projection
30.4
Best Odds
Over
-119
Projection Rating

Jayson Tatum has attempted 21.1 shots from the field per game this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among all players in the NBA. Jayson Tatum has played 36.3 minutes per game on his home court this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA. The Boston Celtics rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year. The matchup vs. Miami is a strong one; when the Heat are the visiting squad, they have allowed the 30th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting SFs this year (17.2). The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Jayson Tatum

Prop: 28.5 Points Scored
Projection: 30.4
Prop:
28.5 Points Scored
Projection:
30.4

Jayson Tatum has attempted 21.1 shots from the field per game this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among all players in the NBA. Jayson Tatum has played 36.3 minutes per game on his home court this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA. The Boston Celtics rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year. The matchup vs. Miami is a strong one; when the Heat are the visiting squad, they have allowed the 30th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting SFs this year (17.2). The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Jimmy Butler Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Butler
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
27.5
Points Scored
Projection
29.2
Best Odds
Over
-115
Prop
27.5 Points Scored
Projection
29.2
Best Odds
Over
-115
Projection Rating

Jimmy Butler has posted 31.1 points per game over the last 10 games, 7.0 higher than he's posted in all games this year. Jimmy Butler has successfully made 60.8% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 15 games on the road, 6.0% more than he's put through the hoop overall this season on the road. Jimmy Butler has tallied 33.8 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 91st percentile. The Miami Heat rank as the 2nd-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage in terms of 3-point attempts. While playing at home, the Celtics have allowed the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (7.2) in the NBA to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Jimmy Butler

Prop: 27.5 Points Scored
Projection: 29.2
Prop:
27.5 Points Scored
Projection:
29.2

Jimmy Butler has posted 31.1 points per game over the last 10 games, 7.0 higher than he's posted in all games this year. Jimmy Butler has successfully made 60.8% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 15 games on the road, 6.0% more than he's put through the hoop overall this season on the road. Jimmy Butler has tallied 33.8 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 91st percentile. The Miami Heat rank as the 2nd-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage in terms of 3-point attempts. While playing at home, the Celtics have allowed the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (7.2) in the NBA to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
18.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.4
Best Odds
Under
-122
Prop
18.5 Points Scored
Projection
17.4
Best Odds
Under
-122
Projection Rating

Bam Adebayo has converted 12.5% of his 3-point shots while on the road this year, putting him in the 8th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Bam Adebayo has accumulated 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's accumulated over the course of the year. The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home. The Celtics have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 18.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.4
Prop:
18.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.4

Bam Adebayo has converted 12.5% of his 3-point shots while on the road this year, putting him in the 8th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Bam Adebayo has accumulated 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's accumulated over the course of the year. The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home. The Celtics have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Al Horford Points Scored Props • Boston

A. Horford
center C • Boston
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.4
Best Odds
Over
-121
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.4
Best Odds
Over
-121
Projection Rating

Al Horford has sunk a whopping 2.2 three-point shots per game this season, quite a bit more than his 1.5 mark last season. Al Horford has tallied 30.3 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 80th percentile. The Boston Celtics rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). The matchup against Miami may be a strong one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted an enormous 5.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Heat are the visiting team (29th-most in the NBA).

Al Horford

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.4
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.4

Al Horford has sunk a whopping 2.2 three-point shots per game this season, quite a bit more than his 1.5 mark last season. Al Horford has tallied 30.3 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 80th percentile. The Boston Celtics rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). The matchup against Miami may be a strong one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted an enormous 5.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Heat are the visiting team (29th-most in the NBA).

Gabe Vincent Points Scored Props • Miami

G. Vincent
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.2
Best Odds
Over
-111
Prop
9.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.2
Best Odds
Over
-111
Projection Rating

Gabe Vincent has attempted 9.6 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games while playing away from home, 3.8 more than he's attempted over the course of the year on the road. Gabe Vincent has played 31.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 5.9 higher than he's played overall this year on the road. The Miami Heat rank as the 2nd-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage in terms of 3-point attempts. The matchup vs. Boston is a favorable one for shots from the field; when the Celtics are at home, opposing starting PGs have tallied the 28th-most shot attempts per game in the NBA this year (15.8). While playing at home, the Celtics have allowed the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (7.2) in the NBA to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Gabe Vincent

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.2
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.2

Gabe Vincent has attempted 9.6 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games while playing away from home, 3.8 more than he's attempted over the course of the year on the road. Gabe Vincent has played 31.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 5.9 higher than he's played overall this year on the road. The Miami Heat rank as the 2nd-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage in terms of 3-point attempts. The matchup vs. Boston is a favorable one for shots from the field; when the Celtics are at home, opposing starting PGs have tallied the 28th-most shot attempts per game in the NBA this year (15.8). While playing at home, the Celtics have allowed the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (7.2) in the NBA to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Caleb Martin Points Scored Props • Miami

C. Martin
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
6.9
Best Odds
Over
-103
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
6.9
Best Odds
Over
-103
Projection Rating

Caleb Martin has attempted 4.6 threes per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 more than he's attempted in all games this season. Caleb Martin has tallied 28.5 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 75th percentile. The Miami Heat rank as the 2nd-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage in terms of 3-point attempts. The matchup against the Celtics is a good one for shots from the field; the opposition's starting SFs have tallied the 22nd-most FG attempts per game in the league this year (12.3). While playing at home, the Celtics have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (7.2) in the NBA to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Caleb Martin

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 6.9
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
6.9

Caleb Martin has attempted 4.6 threes per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 more than he's attempted in all games this season. Caleb Martin has tallied 28.5 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 75th percentile. The Miami Heat rank as the 2nd-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage in terms of 3-point attempts. The matchup against the Celtics is a good one for shots from the field; the opposition's starting SFs have tallied the 22nd-most FG attempts per game in the league this year (12.3). While playing at home, the Celtics have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (7.2) in the NBA to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Jaylen Brown Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Brown
shooting guard SG • Boston
Prop
24.5
Points Scored
Projection
24.5
Best Odds
Over
-109
Prop
24.5 Points Scored
Projection
24.5
Best Odds
Over
-109
Projection Rating

Jaylen Brown has attempted 20.2 shots per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 18.2 mark last year. Jaylen Brown has converted 50.3% of his 3-point attempts over the last 10 games, 15.7% higher than he's made over the course of the year. Jaylen Brown has played 35.5 minutes per game playing at home this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA. The Boston Celtics rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year. The matchup vs. the Heat is a strong one for attempts from beyond the arc; the opposing team's starting SGs have totaled the 30th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.9).

Jaylen Brown

Prop: 24.5 Points Scored
Projection: 24.5
Prop:
24.5 Points Scored
Projection:
24.5

Jaylen Brown has attempted 20.2 shots per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 18.2 mark last year. Jaylen Brown has converted 50.3% of his 3-point attempts over the last 10 games, 15.7% higher than he's made over the course of the year. Jaylen Brown has played 35.5 minutes per game playing at home this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA. The Boston Celtics rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year. The matchup vs. the Heat is a strong one for attempts from beyond the arc; the opposing team's starting SGs have totaled the 30th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.9).

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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