Boston 1st EASTERN CONFERENCE64-18
Miami 8th EASTERN CONFERENCE46-36
TNT, TSN

Boston @ Miami props

Kaseya Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Caleb Martin Points Scored Props • Miami

C. Martin
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.3
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.3
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

Caleb Martin has sunk 56.5% of his treys over the last 10 games, 16.8% higher than he's converted from beyond the arc overall this season. When it comes to shots from downtown, the Heat's stellar 40.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 20 games. The matchup vs. the Celtics is a hard one; they have given up the 3rd-least points per game in the league to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (102.6). The Boston Celtics have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Heat. Caleb Martin has made 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 21.4% more than he's put through the net over the course of the year.

Caleb Martin

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.3
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.3

Caleb Martin has sunk 56.5% of his treys over the last 10 games, 16.8% higher than he's converted from beyond the arc overall this season. When it comes to shots from downtown, the Heat's stellar 40.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 20 games. The matchup vs. the Celtics is a hard one; they have given up the 3rd-least points per game in the league to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (102.6). The Boston Celtics have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Heat. Caleb Martin has made 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 21.4% more than he's put through the net over the course of the year.

Payton Pritchard Points Scored Props • Boston

P. Pritchard
point guard PG • Boston
Prop
5.5
Points Scored
Projection
6.9
Best Odds
Over
-105
Prop
5.5 Points Scored
Projection
6.9
Best Odds
Over
-105
Projection Rating

Payton Pritchard has sunk 2.2 three-pointers per game over the last 15 games on the road, 0.6 more than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the season away from home. Payton Pritchard has been on the court for 26.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 5.6 higher than he's been on the court for in all games this year on the road. The 4th-fastest tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics rank 6thbest in in the league with 11.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.6) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Payton Pritchard

Prop: 5.5 Points Scored
Projection: 6.9
Prop:
5.5 Points Scored
Projection:
6.9

Payton Pritchard has sunk 2.2 three-pointers per game over the last 15 games on the road, 0.6 more than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the season away from home. Payton Pritchard has been on the court for 26.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 5.6 higher than he's been on the court for in all games this year on the road. The 4th-fastest tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics rank 6thbest in in the league with 11.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.6) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Terry Rozier Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Rozier
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
18
Best Odds
Over
-120

Out of all players in the league, Terry Rozier comes in at the 96th percentile for shots from the field with the home court advantage, totaling 18.0 per game since the start of last season. Out of all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier rates in the 95th percentile for three-point attempts, tallying 7.7 per game this year. Terry Rozier has tallied 35.6 minutes per game playing at home since the start of last season, putting him in the 97th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA. When it comes to shots from downtown, the Heat's stellar 40.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 20 games. The Boston Celtics have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Heat.

Terry Rozier

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18

Out of all players in the league, Terry Rozier comes in at the 96th percentile for shots from the field with the home court advantage, totaling 18.0 per game since the start of last season. Out of all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier rates in the 95th percentile for three-point attempts, tallying 7.7 per game this year. Terry Rozier has tallied 35.6 minutes per game playing at home since the start of last season, putting him in the 97th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA. When it comes to shots from downtown, the Heat's stellar 40.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 20 games. The Boston Celtics have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Heat.

Haywood Highsmith Points Scored Props • Miami

H. Highsmith
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
4.5
Points Scored
Projection
5.9
Best Odds
Over
-125
Prop
4.5 Points Scored
Projection
5.9
Best Odds
Over
-125
Projection Rating

In comparison to last season's 1.7 clip, Haywood Highsmith's shots from behind the three-point arc have risen this season to 3.0 per game. Haywood Highsmith has tallied 26.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 7.0 higher than he's tallied overall this year at home. When it comes to shots from downtown, the Heat's stellar 40.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 20 games. The Boston Celtics have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Heat. Haywood Highsmith stands to see an increase in output in all facets of the game considering controlling the home court advantage in this game.

Haywood Highsmith

Prop: 4.5 Points Scored
Projection: 5.9
Prop:
4.5 Points Scored
Projection:
5.9

In comparison to last season's 1.7 clip, Haywood Highsmith's shots from behind the three-point arc have risen this season to 3.0 per game. Haywood Highsmith has tallied 26.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 7.0 higher than he's tallied overall this year at home. When it comes to shots from downtown, the Heat's stellar 40.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 20 games. The Boston Celtics have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Heat. Haywood Highsmith stands to see an increase in output in all facets of the game considering controlling the home court advantage in this game.

Kristaps Porzingis Points Scored Props • Boston

K. Porzingis
power forward PF • Boston
Prop
16.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.1
Best Odds
Over
-120

Kristaps Porzingis has converted 2.6 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 higher than he's made from beyond the arc overall this year. Kristaps Porzingis has tallied 30.0 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 78th percentile. The 4th-fastest tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics rank 6thbest in in the league with 11.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.6) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Kristaps Porzingis

Prop: 16.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.1
Prop:
16.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.1

Kristaps Porzingis has converted 2.6 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 higher than he's made from beyond the arc overall this year. Kristaps Porzingis has tallied 30.0 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 78th percentile. The 4th-fastest tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics rank 6thbest in in the league with 11.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.6) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Derrick White Points Scored Props • Boston

D. White
point guard PG • Boston
Prop
14.5
Points Scored
Projection
15.4
Best Odds
Over
+100

Derrick White has attempted 15.2 shots per game over the last 5 games, 3.5 higher than he's attempted in all games this season. Derrick White has attempted 8.6 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 2.0 more than he's attempted over the course of the year. Out of all players in the league, Derrick White registers in the 85th percentile for playing time, averaging a whopping 32.2 minutes per game this year. The matchup vs. the Miami Heat is a positive one; they have allowed the 27th-most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1). The 4th-fastest tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics.

Derrick White

Prop: 14.5 Points Scored
Projection: 15.4
Prop:
14.5 Points Scored
Projection:
15.4

Derrick White has attempted 15.2 shots per game over the last 5 games, 3.5 higher than he's attempted in all games this season. Derrick White has attempted 8.6 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 2.0 more than he's attempted over the course of the year. Out of all players in the league, Derrick White registers in the 85th percentile for playing time, averaging a whopping 32.2 minutes per game this year. The matchup vs. the Miami Heat is a positive one; they have allowed the 27th-most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1). The 4th-fastest tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics.

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
18.5
Points Scored
Projection
19.8
Best Odds
Over
-110

Tyler Herro has sunk 3.2 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, placing him in the 98th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Among all players in the NBA, Tyler Herro measures in the 92nd percentile for playing time, totaling a monstrous 34.2 minutes per game this year. When it comes to shots from downtown, the Heat's stellar 40.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 20 games. The matchup vs. the Boston Celtics is a positive one for threes; the opposing team's starting PGs have tallied the 30th-most three-pointers per game in the NBA this year (3.0). The Boston Celtics have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Heat.

Tyler Herro

Prop: 18.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19.8
Prop:
18.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19.8

Tyler Herro has sunk 3.2 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, placing him in the 98th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Among all players in the NBA, Tyler Herro measures in the 92nd percentile for playing time, totaling a monstrous 34.2 minutes per game this year. When it comes to shots from downtown, the Heat's stellar 40.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 20 games. The matchup vs. the Boston Celtics is a positive one for threes; the opposing team's starting PGs have tallied the 30th-most three-pointers per game in the NBA this year (3.0). The Boston Celtics have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Heat.

Duncan Robinson Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Robinson
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.5
Best Odds
Over
-125
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.5
Best Odds
Over
-125
Projection Rating

Duncan Robinson has played a whopping 28.2 minutes per game this season, quite a bit more than his 17.2 minutes per game last season. When it comes to shots from downtown, the Heat's stellar 40.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 20 games. The matchup vs. the Celtics is a hard one; they have given up the 3rd-least points per game in the league to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (102.6). The Boston Celtics have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Heat. Duncan Robinson has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 17.1% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this season.

Duncan Robinson

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.5
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.5

Duncan Robinson has played a whopping 28.2 minutes per game this season, quite a bit more than his 17.2 minutes per game last season. When it comes to shots from downtown, the Heat's stellar 40.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 20 games. The matchup vs. the Celtics is a hard one; they have given up the 3rd-least points per game in the league to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (102.6). The Boston Celtics have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Heat. Duncan Robinson has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 17.1% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this season.

Jrue Holiday Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Holiday
point guard PG • Boston
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.9
Best Odds
Over
+102
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.9
Best Odds
Over
+102
Projection Rating

Jrue Holiday has sunk 3.4 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's converted from downtown in all games this year. Jrue Holiday has tallied 33.8 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 91st percentile. This year, opposing starting SGs have tallied 6.3 3-point attempts per game (30th-most in the league) against the Heat, labeling this as a good matchup. The 4th-fastest tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics rank 6thbest in in the league with 11.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.

Jrue Holiday

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.9
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.9

Jrue Holiday has sunk 3.4 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's converted from downtown in all games this year. Jrue Holiday has tallied 33.8 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 91st percentile. This year, opposing starting SGs have tallied 6.3 3-point attempts per game (30th-most in the league) against the Heat, labeling this as a good matchup. The 4th-fastest tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics rank 6thbest in in the league with 11.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.

Jimmy Butler Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Butler
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.5
Best Odds
Over
-124

Jimmy Butler has made 58.2% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 9.7% higher than he's converted in all games this year. Jimmy Butler has sunk 55.0% of his shots from downtown over the last 5 games, 16.1% higher than he's sunk over the course of the year. Among all players in the NBA, Jimmy Butler measures in the 90th percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 33.7 minutes per game this year. When it comes to shots from downtown, the Heat's stellar 40.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 20 games. This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 6.7 three attempts per game (30th-most in the league) against the Celtics, creating a good matchup.

Jimmy Butler

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.5
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.5

Jimmy Butler has made 58.2% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 9.7% higher than he's converted in all games this year. Jimmy Butler has sunk 55.0% of his shots from downtown over the last 5 games, 16.1% higher than he's sunk over the course of the year. Among all players in the NBA, Jimmy Butler measures in the 90th percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 33.7 minutes per game this year. When it comes to shots from downtown, the Heat's stellar 40.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 20 games. This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 6.7 three attempts per game (30th-most in the league) against the Celtics, creating a good matchup.

Al Horford Points Scored Props • Boston

A. Horford
center C • Boston
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
6.8
Best Odds
Over
+100
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
6.8
Best Odds
Over
+100
Projection Rating

Al Horford has converted 50.0% of his three-pointers over the last 15 games, 9.6% higher than he's made overall this year. The 4th-fastest tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics rank 6thbest in in the league with 11.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.6) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists). Al Horford has made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 14.3% higher than he's made over the course of the season.

Al Horford

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 6.8
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
6.8

Al Horford has converted 50.0% of his three-pointers over the last 15 games, 9.6% higher than he's made overall this year. The 4th-fastest tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics rank 6thbest in in the league with 11.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.6) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists). Al Horford has made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 14.3% higher than he's made over the course of the season.

Jaylen Brown Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Brown
shooting guard SG • Boston
Prop
21.5
Points Scored
Projection
22.4
Best Odds
Over
-120

Jaylen Brown has converted 10.8 shots made from the field per game over the last 5 games on the road, 2.2 higher than he's converted in all games this year when playing on the road. Jaylen Brown has converted 43.3% of his three-point attempts over the last 15 games, 8.7% more than he's converted from downtown in all games this season. Jaylen Brown has played 33.5 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 90th percentile. This year, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 12.2 shot attempts per game (24th-most in the league) vs. the Heat, labeling this as a strong matchup. The 4th-fastest tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics.

Jaylen Brown

Prop: 21.5 Points Scored
Projection: 22.4
Prop:
21.5 Points Scored
Projection:
22.4

Jaylen Brown has converted 10.8 shots made from the field per game over the last 5 games on the road, 2.2 higher than he's converted in all games this year when playing on the road. Jaylen Brown has converted 43.3% of his three-point attempts over the last 15 games, 8.7% more than he's converted from downtown in all games this season. Jaylen Brown has played 33.5 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 90th percentile. This year, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 12.2 shot attempts per game (24th-most in the league) vs. the Heat, labeling this as a strong matchup. The 4th-fastest tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics.

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
19.5
Points Scored
Projection
19.8
Best Odds
Over
-105

Bam Adebayo has successfully made 7.8 baskets per game this year, ranking in the 91st percentile out of all players in the NBA. Among all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo slots into the 92nd percentile for playing time, totaling a massive 34.6 minutes per game while on his home court this year. When it comes to shots from downtown, the Heat's stellar 40.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 20 games. The matchup vs. the Celtics is a challenging one for field goals; opposing teams have compiled the lowest FG% in the league over the last 20 games (45.5%). The number of 3-point shots attempted against Kristaps Porzingis has been quite high (2.8 per game) when away from his home court and squaring off against other starting Cs this year (97th percentile).

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 19.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19.8
Prop:
19.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19.8

Bam Adebayo has successfully made 7.8 baskets per game this year, ranking in the 91st percentile out of all players in the NBA. Among all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo slots into the 92nd percentile for playing time, totaling a massive 34.6 minutes per game while on his home court this year. When it comes to shots from downtown, the Heat's stellar 40.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 20 games. The matchup vs. the Celtics is a challenging one for field goals; opposing teams have compiled the lowest FG% in the league over the last 20 games (45.5%). The number of 3-point shots attempted against Kristaps Porzingis has been quite high (2.8 per game) when away from his home court and squaring off against other starting Cs this year (97th percentile).

Jayson Tatum Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Tatum
small forward SF • Boston
Prop
25.5
Points Scored
Projection
25.8
Best Odds
Over
-120

Jayson Tatum has totaled 27.0 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the league in this category: 98th percentile. Among all players in the league, Jayson Tatum lands in the 96th percentile for shot attempts from downtown away from home, averaging 7.8 per game this year. Jayson Tatum has been on the court for 36.0 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 98th percentile. This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing starting PFs have averaged 46.4% on threes (30th-best in the NBA) against the Heat, designating this as a strong matchup. The 4th-fastest tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics.

Jayson Tatum

Prop: 25.5 Points Scored
Projection: 25.8
Prop:
25.5 Points Scored
Projection:
25.8

Jayson Tatum has totaled 27.0 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the league in this category: 98th percentile. Among all players in the league, Jayson Tatum lands in the 96th percentile for shot attempts from downtown away from home, averaging 7.8 per game this year. Jayson Tatum has been on the court for 36.0 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 98th percentile. This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing starting PFs have averaged 46.4% on threes (30th-best in the NBA) against the Heat, designating this as a strong matchup. The 4th-fastest tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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