Phoenix 6th WESTERN CONFERENCE49-33
Miami 8th EASTERN CONFERENCE46-36
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Phoenix @ Miami props

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Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Terry Rozier Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Rozier
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.7
Best Odds
Over
-112
Prop
15.5 Points Scored
Projection
17.7
Best Odds
Over
-112
Projection Rating

Among all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier slots into the 88th percentile for field goal attempts at home, tallying 14.5 per game this year. Among all players in the league, Terry Rozier lands in the 93rd percentile for shot attempts from downtown on his home court, averaging 6.5 per game this year. Terry Rozier has been on the court for 32.5 minutes per game when playing at home this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 20 games on their home court. The Miami Heat will likely see an increase in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 9th-quickest tempo visiting team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Suns).

Terry Rozier

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.7
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.7

Among all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier slots into the 88th percentile for field goal attempts at home, tallying 14.5 per game this year. Among all players in the league, Terry Rozier lands in the 93rd percentile for shot attempts from downtown on his home court, averaging 6.5 per game this year. Terry Rozier has been on the court for 32.5 minutes per game when playing at home this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 20 games on their home court. The Miami Heat will likely see an increase in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 9th-quickest tempo visiting team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Suns).

Devin Booker Points Scored Props • Phoenix

D. Booker
shooting guard SG • Phoenix
Prop
29.5
Points Scored
Projection
27.8
Best Odds
Under
-115

The Phoenix Suns will likely experience a decrease in plays in this contest from sharing the court with the least up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 25 games (the Heat). The Phoenix Suns check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Devin Booker will not hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium tends to worsen stat production across the board.

Devin Booker

Prop: 29.5 Points Scored
Projection: 27.8
Prop:
29.5 Points Scored
Projection:
27.8

The Phoenix Suns will likely experience a decrease in plays in this contest from sharing the court with the least up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 25 games (the Heat). The Phoenix Suns check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Devin Booker will not hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium tends to worsen stat production across the board.

Bradley Beal Points Scored Props • Phoenix

B. Beal
shooting guard SG • Phoenix
Prop
16.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.1
Best Odds
Over
-115

Bradley Beal has successfully made 6.9 shots made from the field per game this year, ranking in the 88th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Out of all players in the league, Bradley Beal ranks in the 86th percentile for playing time, averaging a whopping 32.7 minutes per game this year. The Suns rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a favorable one for shots from behind the three-point arc; the other team's starting SGs have averaged the 30th-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (6.3). The 9th-most up-tempo pace-of-play visiting offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Suns.

Bradley Beal

Prop: 16.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.1
Prop:
16.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.1

Bradley Beal has successfully made 6.9 shots made from the field per game this year, ranking in the 88th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Out of all players in the league, Bradley Beal ranks in the 86th percentile for playing time, averaging a whopping 32.7 minutes per game this year. The Suns rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a favorable one for shots from behind the three-point arc; the other team's starting SGs have averaged the 30th-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (6.3). The 9th-most up-tempo pace-of-play visiting offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Suns.

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
19.3
Best Odds
Under
-122

Bam Adebayo has attempted 0.3 three-point shots per game this year, ranking him in the 13th percentile out of all players in the NBA. The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and bring about added chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat rank 6thworst in in the league with only 9.6 offensive boards per game this year. Over the last 5 games, opposing teams have collected 14.0 offensive rebounds per game (2nd-highest in the league) vs. the Suns (retaining possessions that can spark extra chances for offense). The number of fouls drawn by opposing starting Cs vs. Jusuf Nurkic has been very low this year (2.8 free throws per game: 17th percentile).

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19.3
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19.3

Bam Adebayo has attempted 0.3 three-point shots per game this year, ranking him in the 13th percentile out of all players in the NBA. The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and bring about added chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat rank 6thworst in in the league with only 9.6 offensive boards per game this year. Over the last 5 games, opposing teams have collected 14.0 offensive rebounds per game (2nd-highest in the league) vs. the Suns (retaining possessions that can spark extra chances for offense). The number of fouls drawn by opposing starting Cs vs. Jusuf Nurkic has been very low this year (2.8 free throws per game: 17th percentile).

Haywood Highsmith Points Scored Props • Miami

H. Highsmith
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
4.5
Points Scored
Projection
5.4
Best Odds
Over
-128
Prop
4.5 Points Scored
Projection
5.4
Best Odds
Over
-128
Projection Rating

The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 20 games on their home court. The Miami Heat will likely see an increase in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 9th-quickest tempo visiting team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Suns). Haywood Highsmith has sunk 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games at home, 33.3% higher than he's put through the net in all games this year at home. The matchup vs. Phoenix may be a strong one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 7.5 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Phoenix Suns are on the road (29th-most in the league). Haywood Highsmith will likely see a rise in efficiency in all stat categories due to owning the home court advantage in this contest.

Haywood Highsmith

Prop: 4.5 Points Scored
Projection: 5.4
Prop:
4.5 Points Scored
Projection:
5.4

The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 20 games on their home court. The Miami Heat will likely see an increase in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 9th-quickest tempo visiting team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Suns). Haywood Highsmith has sunk 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games at home, 33.3% higher than he's put through the net in all games this year at home. The matchup vs. Phoenix may be a strong one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 7.5 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Phoenix Suns are on the road (29th-most in the league). Haywood Highsmith will likely see a rise in efficiency in all stat categories due to owning the home court advantage in this contest.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Jaquez Jr.
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.3
Best Odds
Over
-109

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has averaged 20.0 points per game over the last 5 games while on his home court, 5.1 more than he's averaged in all games this year at home. Out of all players in the NBA, Jaime Jaquez Jr. places in the 76th percentile for playing time, compiling a massive 29.9 minutes per game when playing at home this year. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 20 games on their home court. This year when they are playing at home, opposing teams have shot 46.2% on field goals (4th-weakest in the league) against the Phoenix Suns, designating this as a hard matchup. The Miami Heat will likely see an increase in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 9th-quickest tempo visiting team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Suns).

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.3
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.3

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has averaged 20.0 points per game over the last 5 games while on his home court, 5.1 more than he's averaged in all games this year at home. Out of all players in the NBA, Jaime Jaquez Jr. places in the 76th percentile for playing time, compiling a massive 29.9 minutes per game when playing at home this year. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 20 games on their home court. This year when they are playing at home, opposing teams have shot 46.2% on field goals (4th-weakest in the league) against the Phoenix Suns, designating this as a hard matchup. The Miami Heat will likely see an increase in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 9th-quickest tempo visiting team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Suns).

Grayson Allen Points Scored Props • Phoenix

G. Allen
shooting guard SG • Phoenix
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.5
Best Odds
Over
-118

Grayson Allen has sunk 72.8% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games, 20.7% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this year. Grayson Allen has converted 57.5% of his shots from downtown over the last 15 games, 8.9% higher than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the season. Grayson Allen has played 32.9 minutes per game on the road this year, placing him in the 87th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the league. The Suns rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road. This year, the other team's starting SFs have totaled 12.2 shot attempts per game (24th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Heat, identifying this as a favorable matchup.

Grayson Allen

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.5
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.5

Grayson Allen has sunk 72.8% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games, 20.7% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this year. Grayson Allen has converted 57.5% of his shots from downtown over the last 15 games, 8.9% higher than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the season. Grayson Allen has played 32.9 minutes per game on the road this year, placing him in the 87th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the league. The Suns rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road. This year, the other team's starting SFs have totaled 12.2 shot attempts per game (24th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Heat, identifying this as a favorable matchup.

Kevin Durant Points Scored Props • Phoenix

K. Durant
small forward SF • Phoenix
Prop
22.5
Points Scored
Projection
23.8
Best Odds
Over
-120

Kevin Durant has attempted 6.5 shots from downtown per game over the last 10 games, 1.5 higher than he's attempted in all games this season. Among all players in the league, Kevin Durant slots into the 99th percentile for playing time, averaging an enormous 37.2 minutes per game this year. The Suns rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road. The matchup vs. Miami is a positive one for 3-point shots; when the Miami Heat are playing at home, the opposition's starting PFs have compiled the 30th-highest three percentage in the NBA this year (46.4%). The 9th-most up-tempo pace-of-play visiting offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Suns.

Kevin Durant

Prop: 22.5 Points Scored
Projection: 23.8
Prop:
22.5 Points Scored
Projection:
23.8

Kevin Durant has attempted 6.5 shots from downtown per game over the last 10 games, 1.5 higher than he's attempted in all games this season. Among all players in the league, Kevin Durant slots into the 99th percentile for playing time, averaging an enormous 37.2 minutes per game this year. The Suns rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road. The matchup vs. Miami is a positive one for 3-point shots; when the Miami Heat are playing at home, the opposition's starting PFs have compiled the 30th-highest three percentage in the NBA this year (46.4%). The 9th-most up-tempo pace-of-play visiting offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Suns.

Eric Gordon Points Scored Props • Phoenix

E. Gordon
shooting guard SG • Phoenix
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.1
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
8.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.1
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

Eric Gordon has attempted 6.5 3-pointers per game this year, placing him in the 91st percentile out of all players in the league. Eric Gordon has been on the court for 30.2 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 79th percentile. Eric Gordon has tallied 0.0 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 0.1 lower than he's tallied over the course of the year on the road. The Suns rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road. The 9th-most up-tempo pace-of-play visiting offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Suns.

Eric Gordon

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.1
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.1

Eric Gordon has attempted 6.5 3-pointers per game this year, placing him in the 91st percentile out of all players in the league. Eric Gordon has been on the court for 30.2 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 79th percentile. Eric Gordon has tallied 0.0 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 0.1 lower than he's tallied over the course of the year on the road. The Suns rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road. The 9th-most up-tempo pace-of-play visiting offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Suns.

Caleb Martin Points Scored Props • Miami

C. Martin
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.4
Best Odds
Under
-110
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.4
Best Odds
Under
-110
Projection Rating

The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and bring about added chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat rank 6thworst in in the league with only 9.6 offensive boards per game this year. Over the last 5 games, opposing teams have collected 14.0 offensive rebounds per game (2nd-highest in the league) vs. the Suns (retaining possessions that can spark extra chances for offense).

Caleb Martin

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.4
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.4

The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and bring about added chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat rank 6thworst in in the league with only 9.6 offensive boards per game this year. Over the last 5 games, opposing teams have collected 14.0 offensive rebounds per game (2nd-highest in the league) vs. the Suns (retaining possessions that can spark extra chances for offense).

Jimmy Butler Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Butler
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
19.5
Points Scored
Projection
20.4
Best Odds
Over
-130

Jimmy Butler has registered 21.0 points per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the NBA by this standard: 90th percentile. Jimmy Butler has successfully made 56.8% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 7.5% more than he's put through the net in all games this year. Jimmy Butler has tallied 33.6 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 91st percentile. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 20 games on their home court. The matchup against Phoenix is a positive one for 3-pointers; when the Suns are on the road, opposing starting SFs have put up the 23rd-highest 3-point percentage in the league this year (41.1%).

Jimmy Butler

Prop: 19.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20.4
Prop:
19.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20.4

Jimmy Butler has registered 21.0 points per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the NBA by this standard: 90th percentile. Jimmy Butler has successfully made 56.8% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 7.5% more than he's put through the net in all games this year. Jimmy Butler has tallied 33.6 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 91st percentile. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 20 games on their home court. The matchup against Phoenix is a positive one for 3-pointers; when the Suns are on the road, opposing starting SFs have put up the 23rd-highest 3-point percentage in the league this year (41.1%).

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
19.5
Points Scored
Projection
19.6
Best Odds
Over
-105

Tyler Herro has attempted 9.4 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year. Among all players in the league, Tyler Herro registers in the 92nd percentile for playing time, posting a colossal 34.1 minutes per game this year. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 20 games on their home court. The Miami Heat will likely see an increase in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 9th-quickest tempo visiting team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Suns). Tyler Herro has made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 18.5% more than he's made in all games this season.

Tyler Herro

Prop: 19.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19.6
Prop:
19.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19.6

Tyler Herro has attempted 9.4 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year. Among all players in the league, Tyler Herro registers in the 92nd percentile for playing time, posting a colossal 34.1 minutes per game this year. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 20 games on their home court. The Miami Heat will likely see an increase in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 9th-quickest tempo visiting team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Suns). Tyler Herro has made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 18.5% more than he's made in all games this season.

Jusuf Nurkic Points Scored Props • Phoenix

J. Nurkic
center C • Phoenix
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.5
Best Odds
Over
-118

Jusuf Nurkic has made 58.4% of his field goals over the last 15 games, 9.6% more than he's made overall this year. Jusuf Nurkic has successfully made 50.0% of his 3-point attempts over the last 10 games on the road, 25.6% higher than he's made over the course of the season when playing away from home. The Suns rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road. The 9th-most up-tempo pace-of-play visiting offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Suns. While playing at home, the Miami Heat have given up the least offensive boards per game (8.6) in the league to their opposition over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Jusuf Nurkic

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.5
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.5

Jusuf Nurkic has made 58.4% of his field goals over the last 15 games, 9.6% more than he's made overall this year. Jusuf Nurkic has successfully made 50.0% of his 3-point attempts over the last 10 games on the road, 25.6% higher than he's made over the course of the season when playing away from home. The Suns rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road. The 9th-most up-tempo pace-of-play visiting offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Suns. While playing at home, the Miami Heat have given up the least offensive boards per game (8.6) in the league to their opposition over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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