ATL 9.5 o238.5
BOS -9.5 u238.5
PHI 10.5 o225.5
IND -10.5 u225.5
WAS 13.0 o230.0
GS -13.0 u230.0
CLE -6.0 o226.5
MIN 6.0 u226.5
HOU -11.0 o223.0
POR 11.0 u223.0
Final Jan 18
PHO 125 -1.0 o227.0
DET 121 1.0 u227.0
Miami 8th EASTERN CONFERENCE46-36
Indiana 6th EASTERN CONFERENCE47-35
BSN

Miami @ Indiana props

Gainbridge Fieldhouse

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Andrew Nembhard Points Scored Props • Indiana

A. Nembhard
point guard PG • Indiana
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.4
Best Odds
Over
-130

Andrew Nembhard has attempted 3.8 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 1.3 higher than he's attempted overall this year at home. Andrew Nembhard has averaged 29.5 minutes per game over the last 10 games on his home court, 4.7 higher than he's averaged overall this season at home. In terms of scoring, the Indiana Pacers's terrific 122.6 points per game comes in as the highest in the NBA this year. This year, the other team's starting SGs have totaled 6.3 3-point attempts per game (highest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat, marking this as a positive matchup. The Pacers have played at the speediest tempo in the league with the home court advantage this year.

Andrew Nembhard

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.4
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.4

Andrew Nembhard has attempted 3.8 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 1.3 higher than he's attempted overall this year at home. Andrew Nembhard has averaged 29.5 minutes per game over the last 10 games on his home court, 4.7 higher than he's averaged overall this season at home. In terms of scoring, the Indiana Pacers's terrific 122.6 points per game comes in as the highest in the NBA this year. This year, the other team's starting SGs have totaled 6.3 3-point attempts per game (highest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat, marking this as a positive matchup. The Pacers have played at the speediest tempo in the league with the home court advantage this year.

Terry Rozier Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Rozier
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.2
Best Odds
Over
-120

Terry Rozier has sunk 5.6 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 3.1 more than he's converted from three overall this season. Among all players in the league, Terry Rozier measures in the 92nd percentile for playing time, tallying a monstrous 33.7 minutes per game this year. The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest tempo in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which ought to boost plays for the Heat. In contrast to last year's 80.9% mark, Terry Rozier's free-throw effectiveness has increased this year to 88.6%.

Terry Rozier

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.2
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.2

Terry Rozier has sunk 5.6 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 3.1 more than he's converted from three overall this season. Among all players in the league, Terry Rozier measures in the 92nd percentile for playing time, tallying a monstrous 33.7 minutes per game this year. The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest tempo in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which ought to boost plays for the Heat. In contrast to last year's 80.9% mark, Terry Rozier's free-throw effectiveness has increased this year to 88.6%.

Tyrese Haliburton Points Scored Props • Indiana

T. Haliburton
point guard PG • Indiana
Prop
18.5
Points Scored
Projection
19.8
Best Odds
Over
-104

Tyrese Haliburton has attempted 9.2 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's attempted overall this season. Among all players in the league, Tyrese Haliburton comes in at the 85th percentile for playing time, registering a massive 31.8 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year. In terms of scoring, the Indiana Pacers's terrific 122.6 points per game comes in as the highest in the NBA this year. The Pacers have played at the speediest tempo in the league with the home court advantage this year. Tyrese Haliburton has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games at home, 11.0% more than he's made over the course of the season with the home court advantage.

Tyrese Haliburton

Prop: 18.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19.8
Prop:
18.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19.8

Tyrese Haliburton has attempted 9.2 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's attempted overall this season. Among all players in the league, Tyrese Haliburton comes in at the 85th percentile for playing time, registering a massive 31.8 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year. In terms of scoring, the Indiana Pacers's terrific 122.6 points per game comes in as the highest in the NBA this year. The Pacers have played at the speediest tempo in the league with the home court advantage this year. Tyrese Haliburton has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games at home, 11.0% more than he's made over the course of the season with the home court advantage.

Jimmy Butler Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Butler
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
21.5
Points Scored
Projection
20.3
Best Odds
Under
-115

Compared to last season's 15.6 mark, Jimmy Butler's shots taken have tailed off this season to 13.4 per game. This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have totaled 2.9 3-point attempts per game (lowest in the league) against the Indiana Pacers, resulting in a hard matchup. The most lethargic tempo visiting offense in the league this year has been the Heat. Offensive rebounds continue possession and generate further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 2ndworst in in the league away from their home court with just 7.6 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games. Jimmy Butler figures to experience a decrease in efficiency in all facets of the game on account of playing away from home in this contest.

Jimmy Butler

Prop: 21.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20.3
Prop:
21.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20.3

Compared to last season's 15.6 mark, Jimmy Butler's shots taken have tailed off this season to 13.4 per game. This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have totaled 2.9 3-point attempts per game (lowest in the league) against the Indiana Pacers, resulting in a hard matchup. The most lethargic tempo visiting offense in the league this year has been the Heat. Offensive rebounds continue possession and generate further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 2ndworst in in the league away from their home court with just 7.6 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games. Jimmy Butler figures to experience a decrease in efficiency in all facets of the game on account of playing away from home in this contest.

Aaron Nesmith Points Scored Props • Indiana

A. Nesmith
shooting guard SG • Indiana
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.1
Best Odds
Under
-106

Aaron Nesmith has committed 3.1 personal fouls per game with the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 96th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league without the home court advantage this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Indiana Pacers. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers rank 9thworst in in the league as the home team with just 9.9 offensive boards per game this year.

Aaron Nesmith

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.1
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.1

Aaron Nesmith has committed 3.1 personal fouls per game with the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 96th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league without the home court advantage this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Indiana Pacers. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers rank 9thworst in in the league as the home team with just 9.9 offensive boards per game this year.

Myles Turner Points Scored Props • Indiana

M. Turner
center C • Indiana
Prop
14.5
Points Scored
Projection
14.1
Best Odds
Under
-107

Myles Turner has been called for 3.0 personal fouls per game while playing at home this year, putting him in the 95th percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling. The clash with Bam Adebayo registers in the 3rd percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting Cs tallying only 12.4 points per game this year. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league without the home court advantage this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Indiana Pacers. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers rank 9thworst in in the league as the home team with just 9.9 offensive boards per game this year. The faceoff with Bam Adebayo with respect to getting to the charity stripe registers in the 3rd percentile for difficulty with rival starting Cs attempting a mere 2.2 free throws per game this year when they are on their home court.

Myles Turner

Prop: 14.5 Points Scored
Projection: 14.1
Prop:
14.5 Points Scored
Projection:
14.1

Myles Turner has been called for 3.0 personal fouls per game while playing at home this year, putting him in the 95th percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling. The clash with Bam Adebayo registers in the 3rd percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting Cs tallying only 12.4 points per game this year. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league without the home court advantage this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Indiana Pacers. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers rank 9thworst in in the league as the home team with just 9.9 offensive boards per game this year. The faceoff with Bam Adebayo with respect to getting to the charity stripe registers in the 3rd percentile for difficulty with rival starting Cs attempting a mere 2.2 free throws per game this year when they are on their home court.

Duncan Robinson Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Robinson
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.8
Best Odds
Over
+105

Duncan Robinson has attempted 10.0 shots per game this season, significantly more than his 6.1 mark last season. Compared to last year's 4.7 rate, Duncan Robinson's shot attempts from beyond the arc have spiked this year to 7.0 per game. Out of all players in the league, Duncan Robinson comes in at the 75th percentile for playing time, tallying a monstrous 28.2 minutes per game this year. The matchup vs. the Pacers is a good one; they have allowed the most points per game in the league to the other team's starting SGs this year (19.0). The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest tempo in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which ought to boost plays for the Heat.

Duncan Robinson

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.8
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.8

Duncan Robinson has attempted 10.0 shots per game this season, significantly more than his 6.1 mark last season. Compared to last year's 4.7 rate, Duncan Robinson's shot attempts from beyond the arc have spiked this year to 7.0 per game. Out of all players in the league, Duncan Robinson comes in at the 75th percentile for playing time, tallying a monstrous 28.2 minutes per game this year. The matchup vs. the Pacers is a good one; they have allowed the most points per game in the league to the other team's starting SGs this year (19.0). The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest tempo in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which ought to boost plays for the Heat.

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
15.4
Best Odds
Under
+100

The most lethargic tempo visiting offense in the league this year has been the Heat. Offensive rebounds continue possession and generate further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 2ndworst in in the league away from their home court with just 7.6 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games. Tyler Herro will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city tends to lower player production across the board.

Tyler Herro

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 15.4
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
15.4

The most lethargic tempo visiting offense in the league this year has been the Heat. Offensive rebounds continue possession and generate further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 2ndworst in in the league away from their home court with just 7.6 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games. Tyler Herro will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city tends to lower player production across the board.

Caleb Martin Points Scored Props • Miami

C. Martin
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.7
Best Odds
Over
+104
Prop
8.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.7
Best Odds
Over
+104
Projection Rating

Caleb Martin has attempted 5.0 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 1.3 higher than he's attempted in all games this season on the road. The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest tempo in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which ought to boost plays for the Heat.

Caleb Martin

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.7
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.7

Caleb Martin has attempted 5.0 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 1.3 higher than he's attempted in all games this season on the road. The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest tempo in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which ought to boost plays for the Heat.

Nikola Jovic Points Scored Props • Miami

N. Jovic
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
5.5
Points Scored
Projection
5.9
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
5.5 Points Scored
Projection
5.9
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

Relative to last year's 21.7% rate, Nikola Jovic's 3-point effectiveness has spiked this year to 39.8%. Nikola Jovic has been on the court for 23.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games away from home, 5.3 more than he's been on the court for overall this season on the road. The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest tempo in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which ought to boost plays for the Heat. Nikola Jovic has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 34.7% more than he's made over the course of the year. The matchup against the Pacers is a positive one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 5.8 foul shots per game this year (most in the NBA).

Nikola Jovic

Prop: 5.5 Points Scored
Projection: 5.9
Prop:
5.5 Points Scored
Projection:
5.9

Relative to last year's 21.7% rate, Nikola Jovic's 3-point effectiveness has spiked this year to 39.8%. Nikola Jovic has been on the court for 23.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games away from home, 5.3 more than he's been on the court for overall this season on the road. The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest tempo in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which ought to boost plays for the Heat. Nikola Jovic has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 34.7% more than he's made over the course of the year. The matchup against the Pacers is a positive one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 5.8 foul shots per game this year (most in the NBA).

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.9
Best Odds
Over
-105

Bam Adebayo has sunk 60.8% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 8.0% more than he's converted in all games this season. Bam Adebayo has sunk 59.1% of his 3-pointers over the last 15 games, 25.0% higher than he's made from downtown in all games this season. Bam Adebayo has been on the court for 34.2 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 93rd percentile. The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest tempo in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which ought to boost plays for the Heat. The number of fouls drawn by opposing starting Cs vs. Myles Turner has been very high (3.7 free throw attempts per game) when squaring off against opposing starting Cs this year (80th percentile).

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.9
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.9

Bam Adebayo has sunk 60.8% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 8.0% more than he's converted in all games this season. Bam Adebayo has sunk 59.1% of his 3-pointers over the last 15 games, 25.0% higher than he's made from downtown in all games this season. Bam Adebayo has been on the court for 34.2 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 93rd percentile. The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest tempo in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which ought to boost plays for the Heat. The number of fouls drawn by opposing starting Cs vs. Myles Turner has been very high (3.7 free throw attempts per game) when squaring off against opposing starting Cs this year (80th percentile).

T.J. McConnell Points Scored Props • Indiana

T. McConnell
point guard PG • Indiana
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.4
Best Odds
Under
-125
Prop
10.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.4
Best Odds
Under
-125
Projection Rating

The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league without the home court advantage this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Indiana Pacers. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers rank 9thworst in in the league as the home team with just 9.9 offensive boards per game this year.

T.J. McConnell

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.4
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.4

The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league without the home court advantage this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Indiana Pacers. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers rank 9thworst in in the league as the home team with just 9.9 offensive boards per game this year.

Pascal Siakam Points Scored Props • Indiana

P. Siakam
power forward PF • Indiana
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
20.6
Best Odds
Over
-110

Pascal Siakam has sunk 8.5 baskets per game this year, placing him in the 95th percentile out of all players in the league. Pascal Siakam has sunk 62.5% of his attempts from downtown over the last 5 games, 29.0% more than he's made in all games this year. Pascal Siakam has tallied 32.4 minutes per game playing at home this year, placing him in the 86th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league. In terms of scoring, the Indiana Pacers's terrific 122.6 points per game comes in as the highest in the NBA this year. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a favorable one for three-point shots; opposing starting PFs have shot for the 2nd-highest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (43.4%).

Pascal Siakam

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20.6
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20.6

Pascal Siakam has sunk 8.5 baskets per game this year, placing him in the 95th percentile out of all players in the league. Pascal Siakam has sunk 62.5% of his attempts from downtown over the last 5 games, 29.0% more than he's made in all games this year. Pascal Siakam has tallied 32.4 minutes per game playing at home this year, placing him in the 86th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league. In terms of scoring, the Indiana Pacers's terrific 122.6 points per game comes in as the highest in the NBA this year. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a favorable one for three-point shots; opposing starting PFs have shot for the 2nd-highest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (43.4%).

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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