NBA Picks

Wednesday’s matchup at TD Garden will be a slow and methodical slugfest between hard-nosed defenses. The Boston Celtics sport the slowest pace in the Association, and the Golden State Warriors own the sixth-slowest pace across their last 10 games. 

The Nets have been a good bet of late, going 4-2-0 ATS in their last six, and they’ve hung with OKC, suffering just two 20+ point losses in the last eight.

Before locking this in, make sure to shop the alternate markets. Most books have Immanuel Quickley’s assists line at Over 5.5 with heavy juice, which often signals there’s a more appealing plus-money price on 7+ in the alt lines. I price Quickley at -145 for Over 6.5 assists, so there’s clear value here. From a matchup standpoint, Jalen Smith typically plays drop coverage, but Quickley’s floater and mid-range game will force him to step up in pick-and-roll situations. That’s where Quickley thrives—he’s excellent at using the snake dribble to get into the lane and manipulate defenders. Smith also struggles to defend in space, which should allow Quickley to break down the coverage and create easy passing opportunities for his bigs. On top of that, the Bulls offer very little resistance at the point of attack, giving Quickley the freedom to get wherever he wants on the floor and consistently generate assist chances.

Josh Giddey is logging 12 dimes and 11.7 boards per game in March – those numbers rank first and fourth, respectively, among all players.

The Bulls point guard has recorded Over 20.5 assists and rebounds in five straight and six of his last seven outings.

Johnson has hit the Over in assists in three straight appearances, dishing out 13 and 12 dimes across his previous two games. The Hawks take on the Dallas Mavericks this evening, and he had eight assists against them earlier this month. 

Atlanta’s smallest margin of victory in the last 10 in nine points

Nikola Jokic is truly a generational playmaker. He leads the Association in assists with 10.6 per night, and the Nuggets big man truly cannot be stopped right now. Jokic has comfortably cashed the Over in five straight appearances. In fact, he’s dished out 28 dimes across his previous two games alone. 

Jokic has hit the Over in five straight outings for the Denver Nuggets, and he’s dished out 28 assists across his last two contests alone. The Joker had 14 dimes on Tuesday against the Philadelphia 76ers. The Nuggets face the lowly Memphis Grizzlies this evening, and Jokic is averaging 12.5 assists against them across two meetings this season.

These teams just faced off on Monday, and the Los Angeles Lakers consistently blitzed Kevin Durant in the fourth quarter. That strategy led to multiple turnovers and completely stalled out the Rockets’ offense. The main issue was who Durant was forced to give the ball to. That’s where an adjustment should come into play. Expect the Rockets to put Reed Sheppard on the ball more—either as the primary initiator or as the immediate release valve for Durant. His shooting ability alone makes defenses think twice about sending aggressive doubles, and when he does receive the ball, he’ll often be operating in a 4-on-3 advantage. That setup should naturally lead to more playmaking opportunities. Sheppard recorded 10 potential assists in the last matchup, and with a likely shift in how Houston handles the blitz, that number could climb even higher. At +118 for Over 3.5 assists, this line stands out, especially with my price closer to -165.

The Slovenian leads the Association in points with 32.9 per game. Doncic is averaging 34.3 PPG in March so far, with a few massive outings. The former Mav has cashed the Over in points in four of his last six appearances, and he just erupted for 36 points on Monday versus the Houston Rockets. That’s who the Lakers are set to face again tonight.