MIA 2.5 o225.0
ATL -2.5 u225.0
OKC -11.5 o219.0
CHA 11.5 u219.0
NY -12.5 o228.0
WAS 12.5 u228.0
MIL -3.5 o230.0
CHI 3.5 u230.0
PHO 6.0 o220.0
GS -6.0 u220.0
DET 5.5 o232.0
DEN -5.5 u232.0
PHI -6.5 o223.5
UTA 6.5 u223.5
DAL -4.5 o222.5
POR 4.5 u222.5
SAC 2.0 o221.5
LAL -2.0 u221.5
Miami 6th EASTERN CONFERENCE15-13
Atlanta 7th EASTERN CONFERENCE16-15

Miami @ Atlanta props

State Farm Arena

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Jalen Johnson Points Scored Props • Atlanta

J. Johnson
small forward SF • Atlanta
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
18
Best Odds
Under
-110

The Hawks will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this contest from sharing the court with the 2nd-most lethargic tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Miami Heat). The Hawks check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). Over the last 10 games, opposing starting PFs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (2nd-fewest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.

Jalen Johnson

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18

The Hawks will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this contest from sharing the court with the 2nd-most lethargic tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Miami Heat). The Hawks check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). Over the last 10 games, opposing starting PFs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (2nd-fewest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.

Zaccharie Risacher Points Scored Props • Atlanta

Z. Risacher
small forward SF • Atlanta
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.2
Best Odds
Under
+100
Prop
10.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.2
Best Odds
Under
+100
Projection Rating

Zaccharie Risacher has made 38.3% of his shot attempts from the field this year, ranking him in the 17th percentile among all players in the NBA. The Hawks will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this contest from sharing the court with the 2nd-most lethargic tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Miami Heat). The Hawks check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). Among all players in the league, Zaccharie Risacher slots into the 81st percentile for failed foul shots, compiling a colossal 0.7 per game this year.

Zaccharie Risacher

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.2
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.2

Zaccharie Risacher has made 38.3% of his shot attempts from the field this year, ranking him in the 17th percentile among all players in the NBA. The Hawks will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this contest from sharing the court with the 2nd-most lethargic tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Miami Heat). The Hawks check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). Among all players in the league, Zaccharie Risacher slots into the 81st percentile for failed foul shots, compiling a colossal 0.7 per game this year.

Trae Young Points Scored Props • Atlanta

T. Young
point guard PG • Atlanta
Prop
23.5
Points Scored
Projection
21.8
Best Odds
Under
-106
Prop
23.5 Points Scored
Projection
21.8
Best Odds
Under
-106
Projection Rating

The matchup vs. Miami is a difficult one; when the Miami Heat are away from home, they have given up the 10th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PGs over the last 25 games (17.9). The Hawks will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this contest from sharing the court with the 2nd-most lethargic tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Miami Heat). The Hawks check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against Miami may be a difficult one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposition's starting PGs have attempted a mere 4.0 free throws per game over the last 10 games when the Heat are away from home (7th-least in the league).

Trae Young

Prop: 23.5 Points Scored
Projection: 21.8
Prop:
23.5 Points Scored
Projection:
21.8

The matchup vs. Miami is a difficult one; when the Miami Heat are away from home, they have given up the 10th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PGs over the last 25 games (17.9). The Hawks will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this contest from sharing the court with the 2nd-most lethargic tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Miami Heat). The Hawks check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against Miami may be a difficult one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposition's starting PGs have attempted a mere 4.0 free throws per game over the last 10 games when the Heat are away from home (7th-least in the league).

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
19.8
Best Odds
Over
-120
Prop
17.5 Points Scored
Projection
19.8
Best Odds
Over
-120
Projection Rating

Bam Adebayo has made 51.5% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games, 6.1% higher than he's converted in all games this year. Among all players in the league, Bam Adebayo ranks in the 93rd percentile for playing time, totaling a massive 35.0 minutes per game this year. With respect to three-pointers, the Miami Heat's superb 37.7% rate of made threes ranks 6th-strongest in the league this year. The matchup against Clint Capela is a strong one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when facing fellow starting Cs this year, they have attempted a whopping 2.7 shots from behind the three-point arc per game (93rd percentile). The Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the league over the last 10 games in their home city, which should raise plays for the Miami Heat.

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19.8
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19.8

Bam Adebayo has made 51.5% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games, 6.1% higher than he's converted in all games this year. Among all players in the league, Bam Adebayo ranks in the 93rd percentile for playing time, totaling a massive 35.0 minutes per game this year. With respect to three-pointers, the Miami Heat's superb 37.7% rate of made threes ranks 6th-strongest in the league this year. The matchup against Clint Capela is a strong one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when facing fellow starting Cs this year, they have attempted a whopping 2.7 shots from behind the three-point arc per game (93rd percentile). The Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the league over the last 10 games in their home city, which should raise plays for the Miami Heat.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Jaquez Jr.
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
13.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.5
Best Odds
Under
-115
Prop
13.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.5
Best Odds
Under
-115
Projection Rating

Among all players in the NBA, Jaime Jaquez Jr. lands in the 17th percentile for 3-point prowess with a feeble 23.9% rate this year. The 2nd-least up-tempo tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Miami Heat. Offensive rebounds continue possession and create added chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 1stworst in in the league with only 7.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games. The matchup vs. the Hawks may be a challenging one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a measly 2.0 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (least in the NBA). Jaime Jaquez Jr. figures to see a decline in effectiveness in all facets of the game considering playing on the visting team in this contest.

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Prop: 13.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.5
Prop:
13.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.5

Among all players in the NBA, Jaime Jaquez Jr. lands in the 17th percentile for 3-point prowess with a feeble 23.9% rate this year. The 2nd-least up-tempo tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Miami Heat. Offensive rebounds continue possession and create added chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 1stworst in in the league with only 7.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games. The matchup vs. the Hawks may be a challenging one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a measly 2.0 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (least in the NBA). Jaime Jaquez Jr. figures to see a decline in effectiveness in all facets of the game considering playing on the visting team in this contest.

Duncan Robinson Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Robinson
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.6
Best Odds
Over
-113
Prop
11.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.6
Best Odds
Over
-113
Projection Rating

Out of all players in the NBA, Duncan Robinson measures in the 90th percentile for three-pointers drained, registering 2.5 per game this year. With respect to three-pointers, the Miami Heat's superb 37.7% rate of made threes ranks 6th-strongest in the league this year. The matchup vs. Atlanta is a strong one for shots from the field; when the Atlanta Hawks are playing at home, the other team's starting SGs have tallied the 9th-most shot attempts per game in the league this year (13.6). The Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the league over the last 10 games in their home city, which should raise plays for the Miami Heat. Duncan Robinson has successfully made 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 14.8% more than he's put through the net overall this year.

Duncan Robinson

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.6
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.6

Out of all players in the NBA, Duncan Robinson measures in the 90th percentile for three-pointers drained, registering 2.5 per game this year. With respect to three-pointers, the Miami Heat's superb 37.7% rate of made threes ranks 6th-strongest in the league this year. The matchup vs. Atlanta is a strong one for shots from the field; when the Atlanta Hawks are playing at home, the other team's starting SGs have tallied the 9th-most shot attempts per game in the league this year (13.6). The Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the league over the last 10 games in their home city, which should raise plays for the Miami Heat. Duncan Robinson has successfully made 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 14.8% more than he's put through the net overall this year.

Dyson Daniels Points Scored Props • Atlanta

D. Daniels
point guard PG • Atlanta
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
12
Best Odds
Under
-115
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
12
Best Odds
Under
-115
Projection Rating

The Hawks will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this contest from sharing the court with the 2nd-most lethargic tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Miami Heat). The Hawks check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). Dyson Daniels has made 66.3% of his foul shot attempts this year, ranking in the 21st percentile among all players in the NBA. Over the last 5 games when they are at home, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 1.0 free throws per game (4th-lowest in the league) vs. the Heat, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line.

Dyson Daniels

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12

The Hawks will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this contest from sharing the court with the 2nd-most lethargic tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Miami Heat). The Hawks check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). Dyson Daniels has made 66.3% of his foul shot attempts this year, ranking in the 21st percentile among all players in the NBA. Over the last 5 games when they are at home, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 1.0 free throws per game (4th-lowest in the league) vs. the Heat, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line.

Haywood Highsmith Points Scored Props • Miami

H. Highsmith
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.1
Best Odds
Over
-113
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.1
Best Odds
Over
-113
Projection Rating

Among all players in the NBA, Haywood Highsmith comes in at the 76th percentile for field goal efficiency on the road with a remarkable 50.8% rate this year. With respect to three-pointers, the Miami Heat's superb 37.7% rate of made threes ranks 6th-strongest in the league this year. This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have shot 54.1% on field goal attempts (3rd-highest in the NBA) vs. the Hawks, making this a positive matchup. The Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the league over the last 10 games in their home city, which should raise plays for the Miami Heat. The clash with Jalen Johnson when it comes to getting to the free-throw line rates in only the 93rd percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting PFs attempting a massive 4.2 foul shots per game this year.

Haywood Highsmith

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.1
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.1

Among all players in the NBA, Haywood Highsmith comes in at the 76th percentile for field goal efficiency on the road with a remarkable 50.8% rate this year. With respect to three-pointers, the Miami Heat's superb 37.7% rate of made threes ranks 6th-strongest in the league this year. This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have shot 54.1% on field goal attempts (3rd-highest in the NBA) vs. the Hawks, making this a positive matchup. The Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the league over the last 10 games in their home city, which should raise plays for the Miami Heat. The clash with Jalen Johnson when it comes to getting to the free-throw line rates in only the 93rd percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting PFs attempting a massive 4.2 foul shots per game this year.

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
24.5
Points Scored
Projection
24.2
Best Odds
Under
-109
Prop
24.5 Points Scored
Projection
24.2
Best Odds
Under
-109
Projection Rating

The 2nd-least up-tempo tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Miami Heat. Offensive rebounds continue possession and create added chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 1stworst in in the league with only 7.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games. The matchup vs. the Atlanta Hawks may be a hard one for drawing fouls; opposing starting PGs have attempted a lowly 3.3 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (3rd-least in the NBA). Tyler Herro ought to suffer a drop-off in efficiency across the board considering playing on the visting team in this matchup.

Tyler Herro

Prop: 24.5 Points Scored
Projection: 24.2
Prop:
24.5 Points Scored
Projection:
24.2

The 2nd-least up-tempo tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Miami Heat. Offensive rebounds continue possession and create added chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 1stworst in in the league with only 7.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games. The matchup vs. the Atlanta Hawks may be a hard one for drawing fouls; opposing starting PGs have attempted a lowly 3.3 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (3rd-least in the NBA). Tyler Herro ought to suffer a drop-off in efficiency across the board considering playing on the visting team in this matchup.

Terry Rozier Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Rozier
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.1
Best Odds
Over
-120
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
13.1
Best Odds
Over
-120
Projection Rating

With respect to three-pointers, the Miami Heat's superb 37.7% rate of made threes ranks 6th-strongest in the league this year. The Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the league over the last 10 games in their home city, which should raise plays for the Miami Heat. Terry Rozier has sunk 2.8 foul shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.8 higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season while playing on the road.

Terry Rozier

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.1
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.1

With respect to three-pointers, the Miami Heat's superb 37.7% rate of made threes ranks 6th-strongest in the league this year. The Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the league over the last 10 games in their home city, which should raise plays for the Miami Heat. Terry Rozier has sunk 2.8 foul shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.8 higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season while playing on the road.

Clint Capela Points Scored Props • Atlanta

C. Capela
center C • Atlanta
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.8
Best Odds
Over
-132
Prop
9.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.8
Best Odds
Over
-132
Projection Rating

When it comes to offense, the Atlanta Hawks's excellent 123.0 points per game while at home places 2nd-strongest in the league over the last 5 games. The rate of three-pointers hit against Bam Adebayo has been remarkably high (52.2%) when defending other starting Cs this year (100th percentile). The quickest tempo home team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Atlanta Hawks. Clint Capela ought to get a boost in production in all facets of the game due to possessing the home court advantage in this game.

Clint Capela

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.8
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.8

When it comes to offense, the Atlanta Hawks's excellent 123.0 points per game while at home places 2nd-strongest in the league over the last 5 games. The rate of three-pointers hit against Bam Adebayo has been remarkably high (52.2%) when defending other starting Cs this year (100th percentile). The quickest tempo home team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Atlanta Hawks. Clint Capela ought to get a boost in production in all facets of the game due to possessing the home court advantage in this game.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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