NBA Picks

The Heat finally have their lineup healthy after a month of players coming in and out. That takes pressure off Bam Adebayo, who has seen his minutes and usage soar the past month. Bam's totals are still kind of cooked since his 83-point performance but I expect a return to the norm tonight, with projections below 19 points at Cleveland.

I make this matchup closer to a pick’em between the Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday, so getting the Heat at +3.5 is a number I’m comfortable backing. This sets up as a difficult spot for Cleveland, coming off a highly competitive game against the Orlando Magic on Tuesday and now facing another physical opponent in Miami on the second night of a back-to-back. From a matchup standpoint, I like Miami’s ability to create problems at the point of attack, with Davion Mitchell capable of making things uncomfortable for Donovan Mitchell. Even if Jarrett Allen returns, the Heat have the size to hold up, with Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware giving them a frontcourt that can match Cleveland physically. After dealing with constant lineup turnover all season, they’re finally playing at full strength. With Andrew Wiggins back and Norman Powell and Jaime Jaquez providing scoring off the bench, this roster looks far more complete. 

The Thunder are on a roll and fully healthy heading into tonight's matchup with the Celtics. Boston also has a complete lineup with Jayson Tatum back in the lineup, but he's not yet playing to his standard in his return from injury. Until Tatum is back to 100%, the Thunder have a clear advantage in this matchup. I'm taking Oklahoma City to win outright.

Oklahoma City’s elite defense and Boston’s league-slowest pace create a half-court battle. Both teams are comfortable grinding possessions, and their last meeting totaled just 206 points. Expect a playoff-style game where scoring efficiency drops and possessions become limited.

Stephon Castle is averaging 16.5 points per game in 2025-26, starting 59 of the 60 games he’s appeared in. He's cashed the Over in points in five of his last seven contests as well. 

Bilal Coulibaly has compiled 19.2 points per game over the last 5 games, 7.9 higher than he's compiled overall this year.. The Washington Wizards have been the 5th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court with respect to shot attempts from beyond the arc.. The matchup vs. Utah is a favorable one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when the Utah Jazz are at home, the opposition's starting SGs have tallied the 2nd-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (7.3).. The Washington Wizards have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games as the visting team.. The Jazz have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to raise possessions for the Wizards.

The Washington Wizards have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games as the visting team.. The Jazz have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to raise possessions for the Wizards.

Kevin Durant is averaging 24.2 points per game at home, but he’s scoring 27.7 on the road this season. The Slim Reaper has scored 27+ in 31 of 68 games, reaching that mark in 18 of 33 road contests. Durant has found success against the Wolves in recent matchups. Across his last five regular-season tilts with the Wolves, he’s averaged 30.4 points and scored 27+ three times, including a 39-point performance in his first meeting of 2025-26.

When it comes to shot attempts from beyond the arc, the 5th-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Timberwolves.. The matchup against the Houston Rockets is a tough one; they have allowed the least points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting SGs over the last 20 games (12.6).. Over the last 5 games when they are playing at home, opposing starting SGs have attempted 1.0 free throws per game (4th-lowest in the league) against the Rockets, struggling to draw fouls.

Nikola Jokic is averaging 10.5 assists per game along with 17.7 potential assists, which shows how often he is creating scoring chances for teammates. Jokic has recorded at least 11 assists in seven of his last nine games. Against a Dallas defense that leaks like a sieve, his assist total should soar. 

The Nuggets have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Portland has been the NBA’s best first half team lately, ranking first in both net rating and point differential over the last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Bucks are spiraling, sitting near the bottom in those same categories and 29th in offensive rating. With Portland’s elite defense and recent dominant halftime leads, this is a great spot to back the Blazers.
 
 
 

The Milwaukee Bucks rank 29th in scoring at a paltry 107.2 points per game. They scored 106 points or fewer in five of their last 10, and they were held under 100 points in two of their last three. On the flip side, the Portland Trail Blazers have allowed the fifth-fewest points to opponents across their last 10 games (108.8) and sport the second-best defensive rating at 106.9. The Blazers have held opponents to 106 points or fewer in five of their last 10 outings, including two of their last three overall and two of their last three at home.

Golden State has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 11 home games. 

The 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play offense in the NBA this year has been the Nets.. Offensive rebounds save possession and spark extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Nets rank 5thworst in in the NBA without the home court advantage with a mere 10.0 offensive boards per game this year.. The matchup vs. Golden State is a tough one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a lowly 3.1 free throws per game this year when the Golden State Warriors are at home (9th-least in the NBA).

All-Star break and fourth over this six-game stretch, where they are 5-1 ATS. The Clippers rank just 19th in defensive rating over that same stretch and are 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven games as favorites.

You can play the over 6.5 assists at -140 for Darius Garland, but I much prefer attacking the alternate line of 8+ assists at +130. I price 8+ closer to -145, so there’s a clear edge on the alternate number. This matchup sets up well for Garland’s playmaking. The Raptors run a heavy switching scheme, which should allow him to hunt mismatches and dictate the offense as the primary ball handler. If he can force smaller defenders onto bigs like Brook Lopez and John Collins, it creates easy scoring opportunities around the rim—and high-value assist chances. Toronto’s aggressive approach on the offensive glass is another factor. It often leads to transition opportunities going the other way, where Garland can push the pace and generate easy assists with hit-ahead passes. When you combine the matchup dynamics with his role, this profiles as a strong spot for Garland to clear his higher assist ceiling.

New Orleans may be paltry, but the Pelicans are 9-1 ATS over their last 10, and the Pistons team will once again be without superstar point guard Cade Cunningham. Take NOLA to make it a game in the Motor City.