NBA Picks

Atlanta has a point differential of +12.8 over its last 10 games. The Grizzlies are coming off a 23-point loss to the Charlotte Hornets, and have lost each of their last three road games by 16 points or more. I’m taking the Hawks to cover a big spread at home against a hobbled Memphis team.

The Hawks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite since the start of 2026. The gap in form is undeniable, with Atlanta ranking 1st in net rating over the last 10 games compared to Memphis at 25th. The Grizzlies have dropped 10 of their last 11, including five straight double-digit road losses. Atlanta’s last 13 wins have come by an average of 17 points, and with playoff seeding tightening up, don't expect them to take their foot off the gas.

Despite some of Houston’s flailing crunch-time efforts this month, I’m not ready to write off Ime Udoka’s squad, especially when the Rockets are allowing just 109.9 PPG, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. Defense is the visitors’ edge here, and Houston has won four straight meetings against the Bulls, and this spread could be bigger when you look at Chicago’s recent blowout losses against the Raptors, Lakers. and, somehow, Kings.

Though Josh Giddey is a threat, the Rockets have the perimeter hounds to limit his scoring, and they’re coming off encouraging victories over the Hawks and Heat.

I had absolutely zero hesitation hitting this number—this is my favorite prop on the board for Monday. Reed Sheppard has stepped into the starting lineup in place of Tari Eason and is now running the point, initiating a ton of the offense. In his last game against the Miami Heat, he dished out 14 assists on 21 potential assists, and now he draws a Chicago Bulls defense that lacks both point-of-attack resistance and rim protection—two things that are critical for slowing down a playmaker like him. In two-man actions with Sengun, Bulls guards will be forced to chase over the top because of Sheppard’s lethal jump shot. That opens up everything: his ability to snake the dribble, force Jalen Smith to commit, and create easy looks—whether it’s pocket passes to Sengun or drop-offs to Amen Thompson in the dunker spot. At +128 for over 5.5 assists, this line feels way off—I have it priced closer to -225.

I'm not sold on the Raptors laying this many points in this spot. While the Jazz are just 3-8 SU in March, they are 6-5 ATS and 21st in net rating. The Raptors are just 17th in net rating over that same period and 1-4 ATS in their last five games when double-digit favorites.

Immanuel Quickley is priced at +115 for over 6.5 assists, and we’re definitely hitting that number—I have it closer to -155. Quickley is on the second night of a back-to-back, but he didn’t log heavy minutes in the first game, as the Raptors were blown out by the Suns. His projected minutes here are also slightly below his season average. He’s facing a Utah Jazz team that has ruled out all of its primary rim protectors due to surgeries, clearly leaning into the tank. This is a young defensive unit that’s slow to rotate and offers virtually no rim protection on the back line. Quickley won’t need to do anything spectacular—this really comes down to his teammates. Jakob Poeltl and the wings should have an easy time converting his potential assists at the rim, with plenty of uncontested layups and dunks available due to blown rotations.

Podziemski has topped 10 points only once in that span after averaging just shy of 20 points in the first seven games of the month. A lineup of stingy opponents has worn down the Warriors guard, with five of the past six contests coming against Top 11 defenses. The Dallas Mavericks, however, are a welcome break. The Mavs are 25th in defensive rating since the All-Star break. Podziemski is getting the minutes and touches to top his scoring total, with most projections flirting with 16 points tonight.

In regard to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 119.4 points per game comes in as the 6th-best in the league over the last 5 games.. The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.

Portland has been dominant early, ranking 2nd in 1st half net rating and point differential over the last 10 games, while Brooklyn sits dead last in both categories. These teams just met a week ago in the exact same back-to-back, while coming off a loss spot that the Blazers are in tonight. Portland led by 24 at the half in that matchup. Add in Portland’s 3rd-ranked defense versus Brooklyn’s last-ranked offense over the 10-game span, and this sets up for another lopsided first half.
 
 
 

The matchup against Portland is a difficult one for shot attempts from the field; when the Trail Blazers are at home, the other team's starting SFs have totaled the least FG attempts per game in the NBA this year (8.4).. The 4th-slowest pace-of-play offense in the league this year has been the Brooklyn Nets.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Nets rank 5thworst in in the league as the visting team with just 10.0 offensive boards per game this year.

The Clippers boast the ninth-best offensive efficiency in the NBA, which will help against a Giannis-less Bucks team that can't stop anyone. Milwaukee has struggled recently, particularly against good teams. It had lost six of seven before winning Saturday.

This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting PGs have shot 42.1% on shot attempts from the field (8th-lowest in the NBA) against the Clippers, designating this as a difficult matchup.. The 6th-slowest pace team in the league over the last 25 games has been the Bucks.. Offensive rebounds save possession and generate additional chances for scoring and assists, but the Bucks rank 1stworst in in the league with only 8.7 offensive boards per game this year.. This year when they are away from home, opposing starting PGs have attempted 2.9 free throws per game (8th-lowest in the league) against the Clippers, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.