PHO -4.0 o222.0
CHA 4.0 u222.0
HOU -12.0 o225.0
WAS 12.0 u225.0
LAL -7.0 o218.5
DAL 7.0 u218.5
MIN -5.0 o221.0
NO 5.0 u221.0
ATL -6.5 o236.5
UTA 6.5 u236.5
MIA 9.5 o218.0
GS -9.5 u218.0
BOS -6.0 o235.5
DEN 6.0 u235.5
Miami 9th EASTERN CONFERENCE17-17
Sacramento 11th WESTERN CONFERENCE18-19

Miami @ Sacramento props

Golden 1 Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

De'Aaron Fox Points Scored Props • Sacramento

D. Fox
point guard PG • Sacramento
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
23.7
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
20.5 Points Scored
Projection
23.7
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

De'Aaron Fox has attempted 22.4 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games, 2.1 higher than he's attempted overall this season. De'Aaron Fox has attempted 6.0 shots from downtown per game while playing at home this year, placing him in the 84th percentile among all players in the league. De'Aaron Fox has been on the court for 37.3 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 100th percentile. The matchup vs. the Miami Heat is a favorable one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the league to opposing starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1). The Sacramento Kings have played at the 9th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 15 games.

De'Aaron Fox

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 23.7
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
23.7

De'Aaron Fox has attempted 22.4 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games, 2.1 higher than he's attempted overall this season. De'Aaron Fox has attempted 6.0 shots from downtown per game while playing at home this year, placing him in the 84th percentile among all players in the league. De'Aaron Fox has been on the court for 37.3 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 100th percentile. The matchup vs. the Miami Heat is a favorable one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the league to opposing starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1). The Sacramento Kings have played at the 9th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 15 games.

Haywood Highsmith Points Scored Props • Miami

H. Highsmith
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
5.5
Points Scored
Projection
6.6
Best Odds
Over
+108
Prop
5.5 Points Scored
Projection
6.6
Best Odds
Over
+108
Projection Rating

Haywood Highsmith has sunk 53.9% of his field goals away from home this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile out of all players in the league. The Miami Heat have been the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. This year when they are away from home, opposing starting SFs have averaged 6.1 3-point attempts per game (2nd-most in the NBA) against the Sacramento Kings, designating this as a positive matchup. The Kings have played at the 9th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to increased plays for the Miami Heat. Haywood Highsmith has converted 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 10 games on the road, 20.8% higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year while on the road.

Haywood Highsmith

Prop: 5.5 Points Scored
Projection: 6.6
Prop:
5.5 Points Scored
Projection:
6.6

Haywood Highsmith has sunk 53.9% of his field goals away from home this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile out of all players in the league. The Miami Heat have been the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. This year when they are away from home, opposing starting SFs have averaged 6.1 3-point attempts per game (2nd-most in the NBA) against the Sacramento Kings, designating this as a positive matchup. The Kings have played at the 9th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to increased plays for the Miami Heat. Haywood Highsmith has converted 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 10 games on the road, 20.8% higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year while on the road.

Nikola Jović Points Scored Props • Miami

N. Jović
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.3
Best Odds
Over
-114
Prop
8.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.3
Best Odds
Over
-114
Projection Rating

Nikola Jovic has averaged 26.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.3 more than he's averaged overall this year. The Miami Heat have been the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The matchup vs. the Sacramento Kings is a favorable one for field goals; the opposing team's starting PFs have posted the 6th-highest field goal percentage in the league this year (52.6%). The Kings have played at the 9th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to increased plays for the Miami Heat. Nikola Jovic has successfully made 3.8 foul shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.6 more than he's converted overall this year away from his home court.

Nikola Jović

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.3
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.3

Nikola Jovic has averaged 26.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.3 more than he's averaged overall this year. The Miami Heat have been the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The matchup vs. the Sacramento Kings is a favorable one for field goals; the opposing team's starting PFs have posted the 6th-highest field goal percentage in the league this year (52.6%). The Kings have played at the 9th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to increased plays for the Miami Heat. Nikola Jovic has successfully made 3.8 foul shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.6 more than he's converted overall this year away from his home court.

DeMar DeRozan Points Scored Props • Sacramento

D. DeRozan
shooting guard SG • Sacramento
Prop
19.5
Points Scored
Projection
21.2
Best Odds
Over
-105
Prop
19.5 Points Scored
Projection
21.2
Best Odds
Over
-105
Projection Rating

DeMar DeRozan has attempted 14.5 field goals per game with the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 87th percentile out of all players in the NBA. DeMar DeRozan has averaged 33.7 minutes per game while on his home court this year, putting him in the 91st percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA. The matchup vs. Miami is a favorable one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when the Miami Heat are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting SFs have totaled the 3rd-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (5.8). The Sacramento Kings have played at the 9th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 15 games. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, and the Kings grade out 3rd-best in in the league with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

DeMar DeRozan

Prop: 19.5 Points Scored
Projection: 21.2
Prop:
19.5 Points Scored
Projection:
21.2

DeMar DeRozan has attempted 14.5 field goals per game with the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 87th percentile out of all players in the NBA. DeMar DeRozan has averaged 33.7 minutes per game while on his home court this year, putting him in the 91st percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA. The matchup vs. Miami is a favorable one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when the Miami Heat are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting SFs have totaled the 3rd-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (5.8). The Sacramento Kings have played at the 9th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 15 games. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, and the Kings grade out 3rd-best in in the league with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Keon Ellis Points Scored Props • Sacramento

K. Ellis
shooting guard SG • Sacramento
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.2
Best Odds
Under
-103
Prop
9.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.2
Best Odds
Under
-103
Projection Rating

In regard to shot attempts from downtown, the 5th-least aggressive offense in the league at home this year has been the Sacramento Kings. The Heat have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Sacramento Kings. The matchup vs. Miami may be a difficult one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted a measly 1.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Miami Heat are the visiting squad (4th-least in the league).

Keon Ellis

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.2
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.2

In regard to shot attempts from downtown, the 5th-least aggressive offense in the league at home this year has been the Sacramento Kings. The Heat have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Sacramento Kings. The matchup vs. Miami may be a difficult one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted a measly 1.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Miami Heat are the visiting squad (4th-least in the league).

Malik Monk Points Scored Props • Sacramento

M. Monk
shooting guard SG • Sacramento
Prop
19.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.8
Best Odds
Under
-110
Prop
19.5 Points Scored
Projection
18.8
Best Odds
Under
-110
Projection Rating

Malik Monk has tallied 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (84th percentile). In regard to shot attempts from downtown, the 5th-least aggressive offense in the league at home this year has been the Sacramento Kings. The Heat have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Sacramento Kings.

Malik Monk

Prop: 19.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.8
Prop:
19.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.8

Malik Monk has tallied 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (84th percentile). In regard to shot attempts from downtown, the 5th-least aggressive offense in the league at home this year has been the Sacramento Kings. The Heat have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Sacramento Kings.

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
16.9
Best Odds
Over
-130
Prop
15.5 Points Scored
Projection
16.9
Best Odds
Over
-130
Projection Rating

Bam Adebayo has attempted 13.4 field goals per game this year, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among all players in the league. Out of all players in the league, Bam Adebayo lands in the 92nd percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 34.3 minutes per game this year. The Miami Heat have been the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The Kings have played at the 9th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to increased plays for the Miami Heat.

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 16.9
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
16.9

Bam Adebayo has attempted 13.4 field goals per game this year, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among all players in the league. Out of all players in the league, Bam Adebayo lands in the 92nd percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 34.3 minutes per game this year. The Miami Heat have been the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The Kings have played at the 9th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to increased plays for the Miami Heat.

Domantas Sabonis Points Scored Props • Sacramento

D. Sabonis
center C • Sacramento
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
21.1
Best Odds
Over
-102
Prop
20.5 Points Scored
Projection
21.1
Best Odds
Over
-102
Projection Rating

Among all players in the NBA, Domantas Sabonis slots into the 93rd percentile for shots from the field made with the home court advantage, logging a whopping 7.9 per game this year. Domantas Sabonis has averaged 35.4 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 95th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA. The clash with Bam Adebayo places in the 100th percentile with the opposing team's starting Cs draining a whopping 47.6% of their shots from downtown this year. The Sacramento Kings have played at the 9th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 15 games. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, and the Kings grade out 3rd-best in in the league with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Domantas Sabonis

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 21.1
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
21.1

Among all players in the NBA, Domantas Sabonis slots into the 93rd percentile for shots from the field made with the home court advantage, logging a whopping 7.9 per game this year. Domantas Sabonis has averaged 35.4 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 95th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA. The clash with Bam Adebayo places in the 100th percentile with the opposing team's starting Cs draining a whopping 47.6% of their shots from downtown this year. The Sacramento Kings have played at the 9th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 15 games. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, and the Kings grade out 3rd-best in in the league with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Trey Lyles Points Scored Props • Sacramento

T. Lyles
power forward PF • Sacramento
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.9
Best Odds
Over
-114
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.9
Best Odds
Over
-114
Projection Rating

Trey Lyles has successfully made 52.4% of his 3-point shots over the last 10 games at home, 11.2% higher than he's made in all games this year at home. The Sacramento Kings have played at the 9th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 15 games. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, and the Kings grade out 3rd-best in in the league with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games. Trey Lyles has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 20.0% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this year. Trey Lyles will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home city generally raises player production in all stat categories.

Trey Lyles

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.9
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.9

Trey Lyles has successfully made 52.4% of his 3-point shots over the last 10 games at home, 11.2% higher than he's made in all games this year at home. The Sacramento Kings have played at the 9th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 15 games. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, and the Kings grade out 3rd-best in in the league with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games. Trey Lyles has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 20.0% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this year. Trey Lyles will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home city generally raises player production in all stat categories.

Terry Rozier Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Rozier
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.8
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.8
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

The Miami Heat have been the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The matchup against the Sacramento Kings is a strong one; they have given up the 2nd-most points per game in the league to the other team's starting SGs this year (18.1). The Kings have played at the 9th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to increased plays for the Miami Heat. Terry Rozier has converted 86.2% of his free throw attempts this year, ranking him in the 79th percentile among all players in the NBA. This year, opposing starting SGs have attempted 4.7 free throws per game (most in the league) against the Sacramento Kings, making it fairly effortless to get to the foul line.

Terry Rozier

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.8
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.8

The Miami Heat have been the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The matchup against the Sacramento Kings is a strong one; they have given up the 2nd-most points per game in the league to the other team's starting SGs this year (18.1). The Kings have played at the 9th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to increased plays for the Miami Heat. Terry Rozier has converted 86.2% of his free throw attempts this year, ranking him in the 79th percentile among all players in the NBA. This year, opposing starting SGs have attempted 4.7 free throws per game (most in the league) against the Sacramento Kings, making it fairly effortless to get to the foul line.

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
23.5
Points Scored
Projection
23.7
Best Odds
Over
-105
Prop
23.5 Points Scored
Projection
23.7
Best Odds
Over
-105
Projection Rating

Tyler Herro has totaled 23.8 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the NBA by this standard: 94th percentile. Tyler Herro has sunk 3.9 treys per game this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among all players in the NBA. Tyler Herro has played 35.2 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 95th percentile. The Miami Heat have been the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The Kings have played at the 9th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to increased plays for the Miami Heat.

Tyler Herro

Prop: 23.5 Points Scored
Projection: 23.7
Prop:
23.5 Points Scored
Projection:
23.7

Tyler Herro has totaled 23.8 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the NBA by this standard: 94th percentile. Tyler Herro has sunk 3.9 treys per game this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among all players in the NBA. Tyler Herro has played 35.2 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 95th percentile. The Miami Heat have been the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The Kings have played at the 9th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to increased plays for the Miami Heat.

Keegan Murray Points Scored Props • Sacramento

K. Murray
small forward SF • Sacramento
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.7
Best Odds
Over
-120
Prop
11.5 Points Scored
Projection
11.7
Best Odds
Over
-120
Projection Rating

Keegan Murray has attempted 5.2 3-point shots per game playing at home this year, putting him in the 78th percentile among all players in the league. Keegan Murray has played 35.2 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 94th percentile. The matchup vs. the Miami Heat is a positive one for threes; opposing starting PFs have posted the 2nd-highest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (43.4%). The Sacramento Kings have played at the 9th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 15 games. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, and the Kings grade out 3rd-best in in the league with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Keegan Murray

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.7
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.7

Keegan Murray has attempted 5.2 3-point shots per game playing at home this year, putting him in the 78th percentile among all players in the league. Keegan Murray has played 35.2 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 94th percentile. The matchup vs. the Miami Heat is a positive one for threes; opposing starting PFs have posted the 2nd-highest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (43.4%). The Sacramento Kings have played at the 9th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 15 games. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, and the Kings grade out 3rd-best in in the league with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Jaime Jaquez Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Jaquez
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.5
Best Odds
Over
-120
Prop
11.5 Points Scored
Projection
11.5
Best Odds
Over
-120
Projection Rating

The Miami Heat have been the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. This year when they are away from home, opposing starting SFs have averaged 6.1 3-point attempts per game (2nd-most in the NBA) against the Sacramento Kings, designating this as a positive matchup. The Kings have played at the 9th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to increased plays for the Miami Heat. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has made 91.7% of his foul shots over the last 5 games on the road, 16.7% more than he's put through the hoop overall this season when playing away from home. Over the last 5 games when they are away from home, opposing starting SFs have attempted 4.2 free throws per game (7th-highest in the NBA) against the Sacramento Kings, succeeding in their efforts to get to the foul line.

Jaime Jaquez

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.5
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.5

The Miami Heat have been the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. This year when they are away from home, opposing starting SFs have averaged 6.1 3-point attempts per game (2nd-most in the NBA) against the Sacramento Kings, designating this as a positive matchup. The Kings have played at the 9th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to increased plays for the Miami Heat. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has made 91.7% of his foul shots over the last 5 games on the road, 16.7% more than he's put through the hoop overall this season when playing away from home. Over the last 5 games when they are away from home, opposing starting SFs have attempted 4.2 free throws per game (7th-highest in the NBA) against the Sacramento Kings, succeeding in their efforts to get to the foul line.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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