NBA Picks

Harris is averaging 6.5 rebounds over his last 12 games. Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, and Kelly Oubre Jr. are all out, and Andre Drummond has been downgraded to questionable. Philly already struggled on the glass, ranking 22nd in rebounding rate and 19th in opponent rebounds per game.

Cameron Payne has logged 12.0 points per game over the last 5 games, 5.1 more than he's logged overall this season.. The Philadelphia 76ers have been the 6th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court.. The matchup against the Pistons is a positive one; they have given up the 2nd-most points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PGs this year (21.2).. The 76ers have played at the 9th-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games.. This year, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 5.0 foul shots per game (4th-highest in the NBA) against the Detroit Pistons, finding it easy to get to the charity stripe.

The Duke product just dropped 25 on the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday. He also showed out for 35 on Sunday against the Milwaukee Bucks. Back on March 3, Banchero erupted for 37 against the lowly Wizards as well.

The Washington Wizards rank as the 5th-lowest scoring offense in the league away from their home court this year.. The Orlando Magic have played at the 7th-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 5 games at home, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Wizards.

The Pacers are 0-10 ATS during their 10-game losing streak, while Phoenix finally looks to have found an offensive spark led by Devin Booker. With Indiana still struggling with injuries, I love the Suns to cover on the road tonight.

This year when they are on their home court, the opposition's starting PGs have put up 12.2 points per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Suns, marking this as a challenging matchup for offensive output.. The Phoenix Suns have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should decrease opportunities for the Indiana Pacers.. Offensive rebounds save possession and result in further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA with only 8.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.. This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 2.1 foul shots per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) against the Suns, struggling to draw fouls.

The 24-year-old erupted for 35 against the Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday before dropping 27 points on Tuesday versus the Dallas Mavericks. Johnson is averaging 24.5 PPG this season against the Nets, who just allowed 138 points to the Detroit Pistons.

Johnson has also hit the Over in three of his last four home outings.

The Nets check in as the 9th-most aggressive offense in the league this year when it comes to shot attempts from beyond the arc.. The matchup vs. Atlanta is a favorable one for shots from the field; when the Hawks are playing at home, the opposing team's starting SGs have averaged the 9th-most shot attempts per game in the league this year (13.6).. The Hawks have played at the quickest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, which ought to lead to increased opportunities for the Brooklyn Nets.. The matchup against Atlanta may be a positive one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted a monstrous 4.8 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Atlanta Hawks are at home (3rd-most in the NBA).

Here come the Heat. Erik Spoelstra’s men enter with a 22-11 record at Kaseya Center, and they’re 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Despite key absences, Miami has scored 120+ points in five straight contests, and this spread feels even better with Kel’el Ware – and possibly Tyler Herro – returning here. 

But this pick is equally about Milwaukee’s woes. The Bucks are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 outings and 12-19 SU on the road. There’s only so much that Giannis Antetokounmpo can do to elevate a roster with major holes, and the visitors are in a 1-6 slump.

Miami is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, riding a 6-0 SU and ATS run with five double-digit wins. The gap in form is massive in March, with Miami ranking second in net rating while the Bucks sit dead last. Even with Giannis back, Milwaukee is just 1-3 in games he's played in, with three losses by 15+ points. Miami’s offense has surged to third in efficiency this month, while Milwaukee ranks near the bottom. With playoff positioning on the line, Miami should control this matchup.

Memphis has dominated this matchup, going 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven games against Dallas. Recent form also favors the Grizzlies, who rank higher in net rating over the last 10 games. Dallas has struggled since Cooper Flagg returned, losing four straight while ranking last in both net and offensive rating in that span. The Mavericks are also playing in their sixth straight road game, while Memphis holds a major edge in three-point shooting.

Memphis has lost five straight and will be missing as many as six regulars Thursday against Dallas

The Spurs rank third in defensive rating compared to the Nuggets' 21st. Denver is also playing the second half of a back-to-back. San Antonio continues its incredible run where its 16-1 SU and 12-4-1 ATS.

We’re going back to the well on De’Aaron Fox’s points prop, and it’s easy to see why. He’s been consistently cashing tickets, and the matchup against the Denver Nuggets on Thursday sets up well once again. Denver doesn’t have a true point-of-attack defender who can keep up with Fox’s speed. If he’s able to generate switches, he should be able to attack Jamal Murray, whose lateral quickness can be exploited in space. The Nuggets are also on the second night of a back-to-back, which could play right into Fox’s strengths. He thrives when pushing the pace in transition and attacking early in the shot clock before the defense is fully set. The injury report is another angle worth monitoring. Victor Wembanyama is currently listed as questionable, and if he were to sit, Fox’s usage would likely climb even higher. I price Fox at -175 to clear this total, and that projection already assumes Wembanyama is playing.

Chet Holmgren has missed the last two games with an illness but is expected to return on Thursday. Knowing how the Thunder typically handle their rotation, it’s reasonable to assume he’s close to full health, as they’re usually quick to rest their starters if there’s any concern. In his last game before the absence, Holmgren was extremely aggressive from deep against the Knicks, knocking down six three-pointers. Those perimeter looks should be available again in this matchup. Neemias Queta is a massive, high-energy rim protector who will likely be focused on slowing down the drives of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That attention should naturally open space for Holmgren, who often operates more like a movement shooter than a traditional big. Oklahoma City also has a couple of days off following this game, and with the matchup expected to be competitive, the minutes should be there for Holmgren. I price him at -165 to clear this total.

Neemias Queta is grabbing a career-high 8.3 rebounds per game, and he’s corralled at least nine in 23 appearances and exactly eight in 10 more. Quetta has averaged just 7.5 rebounds against Eastern Conference opponents but a whopping 9.6 against the West.

Over the last four games with Isaiah Hartenstein out or limited, the Oklahoma City Thunder have surrendered the second-most rebounds. Hartenstein is out again, and Queta should stay hot in this advantageous matchup after grabbing 9+ boards in two of his last three outings overall and three of his last six on the road.

Luka Doncic is trading at +118 for the Over 8.5 assists, and that’s a number worth attacking as I price it closer to -155. Simply put, the Bulls don’t have a point-of-attack defender capable of slowing down Doncic. He should be able to get into the lane at will, put defenders on his hip, and force the defense to collapse on his drives. When that happens, the passing lanes to his teammates will naturally open up, creating plenty of assist opportunities. Chicago also lacks the size and disciplined rim protection needed to avoid getting pulled out of position by Doncic’s playmaking. With Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes both healthy and available, the lob game should be there all night as well, giving Doncic multiple ways to generate assists.

Matas Buzelis posted a career-best 41 points on Tuesday against the Warriors, but I’m not chasing points after one big game. The second-year man has averaged 24 points across his last six outings, scoring 20+ in all five games in which he logged at least 30 minutes. 

In 35 games with 30+ minutes, he’s averaged 19 points, compared to just a 12-point average in games with fewer than 30 minutes. Buzelis averaged just 14.8 points across the first 50 games of the season, but he’s averaged 19.4 across his last 14.