NBA Picks

Amen Thompson is one of Houston's best rebounders, pulling down a career-high 7.9 boards per game. He's recorded at least eight rebounds in 36 of 70 games overall, going for exactly seven rebounds 13 more times. Thompson has corralled 8.3 rebounds on the road compared to 7.4 at home, and he's gone for 8+ in 21 of 36 away from Toyota Center.

Since the All-Star break, Thompson has pulled down 8.7 rebounds per game and recorded 8+ in nine of 18 appearances. He leads the team in rebounds over the Rockets' last seven games at 10.3, and he's hit the Over on this line five times in that span.

The Memphis Grizzlies sport one of the thinnest and smallest frontcourt lineups in the Association, and Thompson should have no problem taking advantage of a highly favorable matchup on the road.

This matchup heavily favors Houston, starting with Alperen Sengun against Olivier-Maxence Prosper at center. At 6'11" vs. 6'8", it’s a clear size and strength advantage, and the Rockets should look to establish Sengun early and often inside. Memphis’ pace also works in Houston’s favor. The Grizzlies like to push the tempo, but that plays right into the hands of the Rockets—especially for Amen Thompson, who thrives in transition and adds another layer to their offense in an up-tempo game. From a game script standpoint, Memphis being on the front end of a back-to-back only adds to the blowout risk. They’re already limiting minutes, and if things get out of hand, there’s even more incentive to pull starters early. All signs point to a strong Houston performance—I make this line closer to -15.5.

OKC is a Top 5 scoring team in the NBA, that’s also allowed just 106.3 points per game in their last 13.

The Thunder have played at the 8th-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 15 games with the home court advantage, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Chicago Bulls.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, but the Bulls grade out 5thworst in in the league away from home with a mere 10.1 offensive rebounds per game this year.

The Raps big man is averaging 12.7 points per game over his last 12 games with a .688 effective field goal percentage while the Pelicans rank 24th in opponent points in the paint per game.

The matchup vs. the Toronto Raptors is a favorable one for shot attempts from downtown; the opposing team's starting PFs have totaled the 5th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (4.9).. Offensive rebounds retain possession and create extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Pelicans grade out 4th-best in in the NBA as the away team with 13.4 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

Utah is 3-10 outright in March, but it has won six of 13 first halves, including on March 2 against the Denver Nuggets despite the Jazz being 11.5-point underdogs. With the Nuggets on the third game in four nights, a similar early surprise is far more plausible than these odds suggest.

The Denver Nuggets are trading as 18-point favorites, but I make the number closer to -22 against the Jazz on Friday. The matchup itself is extremely lopsided, starting with Nikola Jokic going up against Kyle Filipowski in the paint. That’s one of the biggest mismatches you’ll see, and it’s a spot where Denver should be able to generate offense at will. Beyond the starters, Denver’s health is a major factor. When you’re laying a number this large, bench production becomes critical, and the Nuggets are in a great position there. With a fully healthy rotation, players like Peyton Watson, Bruce Brown, and Tim Hardaway Jr. should be able to come in and maintain—or even extend—the lead. On the other side, Utah is on the front end of a back-to-back, which only adds to the risk of this game getting out of hand early. When you combine the matchup, depth, and scheduling spot, this spread still feels too low.

As it relates to scoring, the Trail Blazers's feeble 45.4% field goal percentage measures as the 2nd-weakest in the league this year.

The matchup vs. the Portland Trail Blazers is a challenging one for 3-pointers; opposing starting PGs have shot for the 3rd-lowest three rate in the NBA this year (29.8%).. The Mavericks check in as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over his last 12 games, Gui Santos has averaged 16.5 points, going for 16+ seven times and exactly 15 points once more. Santos has scored at least 16 in two straight games, including his career-high 31-point eruption against the Nets on Wednesday.

In terms of shots from downtown, the Golden State Warriors's subpar 33.5% rate of converted threes comes in as the 3rd-lowest in the NBA over the last 20 games.. The 7th-most lethargic pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Warriors.

With the lowly Nets in town and the Lakers laying -16.5, Luka Doncic could sit out after playing major minutes this month. Without Luka, LeBron James slides into a primary ball-handling role and with those touches comes a boost in potential assists. James has dished out 12, 10, 10 and eight assists the last four games without Doncic and his projections already sit north of seven assists - with Luka in the lineup. I like the value of grabbing this now before official news on Luka comes out.

With respect to 3-point attempts, the 10th-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year has been the Brooklyn Nets.. The matchup against Los Angeles may be a strong one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting SGs have attempted a monstrous 3.2 foul shots per game over the last 17 games when the Los Angeles Lakers have the home court advantage (10th-most in the NBA).