Denver @ Buffalo props

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a huge favorite this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan. The projections expect the Bills to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) usually mean lessened passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher rush volume. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: fewest in football.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a massive -7.5-point underdog in this week's game. Our trusted projections expect Javonte Williams to accumulate 3.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile when it comes to RBs. With a terrific 2.4 adjusted catches per game (77th percentile) this year, Javonte Williams stands as one of the top RB receiving threats in football. Javonte Williams's 83.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a meaningful gain in his receiving proficiency over last season's 77.6% mark.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a massive -7.5-point underdog in this week's game. Adam Trautman has gone out for fewer passes this year (72.5% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (28.5%).

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a huge favorite this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan. The projections expect the Bills to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) usually mean lessened passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher rush volume. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: fewest in football.

Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-focused team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 68.9% pass rate. Our trusted projections expect Stefon Diggs to notch 10.3 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers. With a RATE1-RATE2 point boost in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Stefon Diggs has been more heavily featured in his team's passing offense. When talking about pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the 6th-best in football this year. Stefon Diggs's receiving skills have gotten a boost this season, averaging 7.8 adjusted catches compared to a measly 6.8 last season.

The Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context). Our trusted projections expect the Broncos as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 57.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the projections to run just 60.8 total plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week. The Broncos have called the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 52.2 plays per game. Opposing teams have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: fewest in the league.