Baltimore @ Jacksonville props

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 4 points. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 50.2% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week. The leading projections forecast the Ravens offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.09 seconds per play. The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers grade out as the 10th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

Windy weather conditions (like the 21-mph being called for in this game) generally cause lessened passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased run volume. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Baltimore's unit has been fantastic this year, projecting as the best in football.

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 4 points. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 50.2% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week. The leading projections forecast the Ravens offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.09 seconds per play. This year, the daunting Jaguars defense has given up a meager 68.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL. The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers grade out as the 10th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

Windy weather conditions (like the 21-mph being called for in this game) generally cause lessened passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased run volume. Calvin Ridley grades out as one of the worst possession receivers in the league, completing a measly 59.3% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 24th percentile among WRs This year, the stout Baltimore Ravens defense has surrendered a mere 61.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 6th-lowest rate in the league. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Baltimore's unit has been fantastic this year, projecting as the best in football.

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: 4th-most in the league. With an impressive 93.3% Route Participation Rate (93rd percentile) this year, Zay Flowers has been as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league. In this game, Zay Flowers is expected by the predictive model to position himself in the 84th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.5 targets. When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Ravens grades out as the best in the NFL this year. Zay Flowers checks in as one of the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging an impressive 5.0 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

This game's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Jaguars, who are -4-point underdogs. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jaguars to pass on 60.4% of their plays: the 10th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.49 seconds per play. Opposing QBs have averaged 39.6 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in football. Evan Engram's 6.4 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a material boost in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 4.3 mark.