Atlanta @ Chicago props

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 46.0% of their chances: the lowest frequency on the slate this week. Right now, the 10th-most sluggish paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chicago Bears. Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Falcons, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 34.8 per game) this year. The Chicago offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board. This year, the formidable Falcons defense has conceded a measly 60.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-lowest rate in the league.

The leading projections forecast Cole Kmet to earn 5.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile among TEs. The Atlanta Falcons linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.