Buffalo @ Seattle props

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the model to have only 126.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week. The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness. When talking about pass protection (and the importance it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Seattle Seahawks grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year. The Bills pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.1%) vs. RBs this year (78.1%).

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the model to have only 126.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week. The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness. When talking about pass protection (and the importance it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Seattle Seahawks grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.

Khalil Shakir has been a much bigger part of his team's passing offense this season (18.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (7.8%). Khalil Shakir's receiving skills have gotten better this season, averaging 4.6 adjusted receptions compared to just 2.4 last season. Khalil Shakir's 97.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a noteworthy boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 86.7% figure. This year, the anemic Seattle Seahawks pass defense has surrendered a massive 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 9th-biggest rate in the league.

The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.5% pass rate. The 8th-most plays in football have been run by the Seahawks this year (a colossal 59.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL. Noah Fant's 3.5 adjusted receptions per game this season signifies a substantial progression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 2.3 rate.

James Cook has been in the 78th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) with a massive 15.1 mark this year.

In this game, Dalton Kincaid is expected by the projection model to slot into the 90th percentile among tight ends with 5.5 targets. Dalton Kincaid's 44.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 35.1. This year, the anemic Seahawks pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 83.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 4th-biggest rate in the NFL.