Posted:
#151
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:
Took half my position at -165. I agree with Van that lots can happen between now and then, but my gut says it's more likely something on Trump's side that happens to send this thing back to the -300 range. His news conference today was so unhinged that I wonder how he'll hold up emotionally under the onslaught that's heading his way. He takes things very personally and that isn't attractive in a presidential aspirant. He looked pretty crazy. Add that to the math and this is a very attractive bet. BTW this thread is not so different from the Obama-Romney thread of 4 years ago. Emotions got out of control on Covers and wishful thinking ruled the day (remember "unskewed" polling?). Once the Dems coalesce behind Clinton, she should show a significant advantage over Trump (8% I'm guessing). That will change the betting odds considerably. Maybe we see better numbers after the GOP convention but I don't know. Of course, Trump has a chance to win. That's why it's called gambling, but I think Van's 10-1 shot is about right.
Took half my position at -165. I agree with Van that lots can happen between now and then, but my gut says it's more likely something on Trump's side that happens to send this thing back to the -300 range. His news conference today was so unhinged that I wonder how he'll hold up emotionally under the onslaught that's heading his way. He takes things very personally and that isn't attractive in a presidential aspirant. He looked pretty crazy. Add that to the math and this is a very attractive bet. BTW this thread is not so different from the Obama-Romney thread of 4 years ago. Emotions got out of control on Covers and wishful thinking ruled the day (remember "unskewed" polling?). Once the Dems coalesce behind Clinton, she should show a significant advantage over Trump (8% I'm guessing). That will change the betting odds considerably. Maybe we see better numbers after the GOP convention but I don't know. Of course, Trump has a chance to win. That's why it's called gambling, but I think Van's 10-1 shot is about right.
This sounds pretty well thought out and you're getting a good price
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