Cool_Arrow

Cool_Arrow
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replied to Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
in NFL Betting
One of the worst beats in a while. Blocked Xp was the difference with pushing at least. Doesn't happen much. Tough loss. Get them next time!
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EastsideBangers 12
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replied to Clinton -300 = $
in Politics
Quote Originally Posted by StanThaCaddy:


Rubio will wipe the floor with Hillary in 2020. I think its a pretty safe bet neither candidate this year will end up being re elected

Problem is that he would have to get through a GOP primary first. Doubt he is able to do that. Rubio is the ultimate light weight who can't think for himself. He couldn't even stand up to Chris Christie and had to repeat the same line 3 times. I bet he says something like "Hillary Clinton knows exactly what she is doing...." Most likely scenario is that they screw themselves with another unelectable clown like Ted Cruz. 

People afterwards said that same thing about George W Bush after he lost the popular vote in 2000; he won in 2004 fair and square. Hillary will be judged on her 4 years as President. Add another 4 years of demographics and she starts off not too bad. 


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Cool_Arrow 12
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replied to Election Betting Question...
in Politics
Quote Originally Posted by DiverRon:

First election I have not had a wager on and 
never lost a presidential election bet to date.
I want to lay some $ on HRC and thinks she takes this
BUT this is Unknown ground with HRC dirt and I'm a bit 
nervous putting $ on her for one reason although I think 
it's a medium to long shot: HRC indictment b4 election? 
What is the % of this before election day? Is it basically nonexistent?
 


Ron - Being a gambler I hate to use the word that begins with "L" but Hillary is going to win this. She is going to be the next President. Don't listen to the posters here who are bed wetting themselves about a Trump win, won't happen. Just look at the early voting numbers in Nevada & Florida. If Trump can't win either, he is done. I wish the odds were a little better but Hillary is as close to "easy money" as you can get. Good luck my friend. 




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DiverRon 5
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replied to Clinton -300 = $
in Politics
Quote Originally Posted by Sabanesque:

 

Don't trust media polls. They over sample democrats and women.



So despite Democrats out performing polls in all of the examples I gave, you think polls over sample them? I wish you luck my friend, you can make a lot of money betting on Trump. 
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Cool_Arrow 12
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created a topic Clinton -300 = $
in Politics

I’m not here to change anyone’s opinion. I’m here to make some money. All lines are from 5Dimes. Some may not like it but she is going to win. With Comey’s statement, she is no longer -600 territory, she is at -300 now.

To win Trump needs 270 electoral votes. I’m starting him with every state McCain won, 179 votes. I’m giving him Indiana, Ohio & Iowa; 56 shy. This is where the math really sinks in. Actual results are never too far from the polling averages. Competitive states:

FL (29) – Real Clear Politics (RCP) – average Trump +0.6%. 2012 Obama outperformed by 2.4%. 

NC (15) – RCP – Tie. 2012 Obama outperformed by 1.0%

PA (20) – RCP – C +4.9%. 2012  Obama outperformed by 2.6%. 

CO (9) – RCP – C +1.7%. 2012 Obama outperformed by 3.9%.

WI (10) – RCP – C +5.4%. 2012 Obama outperformed by 2.7%.

MI (16) – RCP – C +5.7%. 2012 Obama outperformed by 4.5%.

VA (13) – RCP – C +4.7%. 2012 Obama outperformed by 3.6%.

NV (6) – RCP – T +1.6%. 2012 Obama outperformed by 3.9%.

To win Trump needs multiple of these states that he is down. History shows that Republicans rarely out perform their polling averages. 2008 is much of the same too. Changing demographics and a flawed candidate are going to elect a very beatable Hillary Clinton.

State plays:

Clinton +110 in FL

Clinton -120 in NC

Clinton -300 in PA

Clinton -280 in NV

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Cool_Arrow 12
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replied to 18-3-2 ATS Trend In Play This Week
in NFL Betting

  • The Dallas Cowboys in 2007 beat the Bears 34-10, then beat the Rams 35-7, and then beat the Bills in Buffalo 25-24 (but didn't cover as an 11-point favorite).
  • The Baltimore Ravens in 2008 beat the Eagles 36-7, then beat the Bengals 34-3, and then beat the Redskins at home 24-10 (as a 6.5-point favorite). 
  • The Minnesota Vikings in 2009 beat the Seahawks 35-9, then beat the Bears 36-10, and then lost to the Cardinals in Arizona 30-17 (as a 3-point favorite).
  • The Indianapolis Colts in 2009 beat the Titans 31-9, then beat the Rams 42-6, and then beat the 49ers at home 18-14 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite).
  • The Baltimore Ravens in 2009 beat the Lions 48-3, then beat the Bears 31-7, and then lost in Pittsburgh 23-20 (pushing as a 3-point underdog).
  • The New England Patriots in 2009 beat the Titans 59-0, then beat the Buccaneers 35-7, and then beat the Dolphins 27-17 (but didn't cover as an 11-point favorite).
  • The Green Bay Packers in 2009 beat the Seahawks 48-10, then beat the Cardinals 33-7, then returned to Arizona one week later for a wild card playoff game and lost 51-45 in overtime (as a 2.5-point favorite).
  • The Green Bay Packers in 2010 beat the Cowboys 45-7 then beat the Vikings 31-3. There was a bye week sandwiched between those games but their next game they lost to Atlanta 20-17. This was a push as Atlanta was a 3 point favorite. 
  • The New England Patriots in 2010 beat the NY Jets 45-3 then beat the Bears 36-7. Their next game they beat the Aaron Rodgers less Packers 31-27 but didn't cover the 14 point line. 
  • The San Diego Chargers in 2010 beat the Chiefs 31-0 then beat the 49ers 34-7. Their next game they lost SU as an 8 point favorite to the Bengals who had nothing to play for 34-20. 
  • The New England Patriots in 2010 beat the Bills 34-3 then beat the Dolphins 38-7 to close out the season. Their next game was the divisional round of the playoffs where they lost SU as a 9 point favorite to the NY Jets 28-21. 
  • The San Francisco 49ers in 2012 beat the Jets 34-0 then beat the Bills 45-3, and then lost at home to the Giants 26-3. 
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    		Cool_Arrow 9
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    replied to 18-3-2 ATS Trend In Play This Week
    in NFL Betting

  • The St. Louis Rams in 1999 beat the Falcons 35-7, then beat the Bengals 38-10, and then beat the 49ers 42-20. 
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars in 1999 beat the Bengals 41-10, then beat the Falcons 30-7, and then beat the Ravens 6-3 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite).
  • The Kansas City Chiefs in 1999 beat the Ravens 35-8, then beat the Chargers 34-0, and then lost to the Colts in Indianapolis 25-17.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2000 beat the Bears 41-0, then beat the Lions 31-10, and then lost at home to the Jets 21-17.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars in 2000 beat the Browns 48-0, then beat the Cardinals 44-10, and then lost 17-14 to the Bengals in Cincinnati.
  • The St. Louis Rams in 2001 beat the Dolphins 42-10, then beat the Lions 35-0, and then beat the Giants at home 15-14 (but didn't cover as a 14.5 point favorite).
  • The Kansas City Chiefs in 2002 beat the Cardinals 49-0, then beat the Rams 49-10, and then lost to the Broncos in Denver, 31-24.
  • The Green Bay Packers in 2003 beat the Raiders 41-7, then beat the Broncos 31-3, and then beat the Seahawks in a wild card playoff game at home in overtime 33-27 (but didn't cover as a 6.5 point favorite).
  • The Indianapolis Colts in 2004 beat the Bears 41-10, then beat the Lions 41-9, and then beat the Titans at home 51-24. COVER
  • The Seattle Seahawks in 2005 beat the Eagles 42-0, then beat the 49ers 41-3, and then beat the Titans in Tennessee 28-24 (but didn't cover as a 7-point favorite).
  • The Chicago Bears in 2006 beat the Seahawks 37-6, then beat the Bills 40-7, and then beat the Cardinals in Arizona 24-23 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite)
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    		Cool_Arrow 9
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    created a topic 18-3-2 ATS Trend In Play This Week
    in NFL Betting

    Long time reader but I don’t post as much. FWIW, a rare and logical (to me at least) trend is in play this week. I found this years ago from the poster MrBator who I haven't seen in a while so the credit goes to him! As far as I can see, the trend is 18-3-2. Teams that win two games in a row by scoring 30+ points and giving up 10 or fewer points are likely to be inflated favorites and they regress to the "normal" their next game allowing them to be faded. The Bengals have won their last two games 31-7 and 37-3. I’m seeing  around -3 for Cincy this week, which isn't as high as I wish it would be but Pitt is a play for me this week. 


    My next post will give the games I am citing. 

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    		Cool_Arrow 9
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    created a topic 3rd and 2 Play
    in NFL Betting
    Hindsight is easy but its amazing to me how some of these coaches make the calls that they do. Bengals have 3rd and 2 with 1:14 to go and you are in FG range. Bengals have 2 time outs and the Cardinals have none. Running the ball and even if you are stuffed you basically give the Cardinals 30 seconds with no time outs to try and get into FG range. Make it and you have the 2 time outs to work with. Instead we saw what happened. Even if they score a TD the Cardinals still have time to answer with over a minute to go. 

    Nothing on the game but I don't get that call. 
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    		Cool_Arrow 3
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    replied to Come on ANDYYYY
    in NFL Betting
    Quote Originally Posted by CountCrisco:

    that was a bonehead call ....why the fukkk didnt you rush Benard there to get the first down

    Totally agree. Didn't have any money on this and hindsight is 20/20 but the Cardinals had no timeouts. Even if you are stuffed there you basically force overtime with the FG instead of giving them time to run down the field. Instead you give them time and even if the TD had worked they would have had time to score in regulation. I'm not paid the big bucks so what do I know. Just doesn't make sense.  
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    		Mancity 13
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    replied to All you "rules" followers !!
    in NFL Betting
    NFL Casebook -

    A.R. 8.12 GOING TO THE GROUND—COMPLETE PASS
    First-and-10-on B25. A1 throws a pass to A2 who controls the ball and gets one foot down before he is contacted by B1. He
    goes to the ground as a result of the contact, gets his second foot down, and with the ball in his right arm, he braces himself at
    the three-yard line with his left hand and simultaneously lunges forward toward the goal line. When he lands in the end zone,
    the ball comes out.
    Ruling: Touchdown Team A. Kickoff A35. The pass is complete. When the receiver hits the ground in the end zone, it is the
    result of lunging forward after bracing himself at the three-yard line and is not part of the process of the catch. Since the ball
    crossed the goal line, it is a touchdown. If the ball is short of the goal line, it is a catch, and A2 is down by contact.

    https://static.nfl.com/static/content/public/image/rulebook/pdfs/26_2012_Official_CaseBook.pdf
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    		booshnugs 32
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    created a topic Official Casebook of the NFL
    in NFL Betting
    First off, I think the overturned call on Dez was bad but wasn't why my Cowboys lost. Can't win when Murray fumbles in a critical spot, Bailey misses a FG and you don't recover a fumble on Cobb's kickoff. Additionally they could have stopped the Packers and forced a punt after but didn't. That said, here is the official casebook from NFL.com. I feel like it was tailored for this play. 

    Page 33
    https://static.nfl.com/static/content/public/image/rulebook/pdfs/26_2012_Official_CaseBook.pdf

    A.R. 8.12 GOING TO THE GROUND—COMPLETE PASS

    First-and-10-on B25. A1 throws a pass to A2 who controls the ball and gets one foot down before he is contacted by B1. He goes to the ground as a result of the contact, gets his second foot down, and with the ball in his right arm, he braces himself at the three-yard line with his left hand and simultaneously lunges forward toward the goal line. When he lands in the end zone, the ball comes out.

    Ruling: Touchdown Team A. Kickoff A35. The pass is complete. When the receiver hits the ground in the end zone, it is the

    result of lunging forward after bracing himself at the three-yard line and is not part of the process of the catch. Since the ball crossed the goal line, it is a touchdown. If the ball is short of the goal line, it is a catch, and A2 is down by contact.

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    		Cool_Arrow 1
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    replied to You call the Super Bowl winner right here
    in NFL Betting
    Suuma – long-time reader of your picks and I like your angles. I’ll admit to being a Cowboys fan but if you look back on the game @ Seattle, the Cowboys dominated it. Cowboys won 30-23 but Seattle had a blocked punt for a TD and a botched punt return inside their own red zone that gave Seattle a FG. That’s 10 points just about gifted right there. I do think Seattle is the team to beat right now but to beat Seattle you need to run the ball and control the line of scrimmage something that I think the Cowboys can do. Won’t be easy by any means. It is too bad that the Packers had the same record to force a 3 way tie otherwise the game would be in Dallas.
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    		Crashdavis565 59
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    replied to Dallas is trapped @ #3. Let the hating begin...
    in NFL Betting
    Cowboy fan here as well. 

    Only way the Cowboys get a bye is if:

    Seattle & AZ BOTH lose; Cowboys can lose as well here.

    OR

    Detroit/GB tie

    Both scenarios are unlikely. I blame this on a combo of losing to the lowly Redskins at home and the Dolphins collapse to the Packers. If the Cowboys had a one-on-one tie with Seattle they would prevail. 

    Road for the Cowboys probably begins with the Lions. Tough matchup as I'd much rather play AZ but last year it took an 80 yard drive in a minute with no timeouts for the Lions to win. Hopefully this year would be different. 
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    		DarkKnightBets 23
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    replied to Drew Brees question
    in NFL Betting
    Quote Originally Posted by Syddigs:

    Can someone tell me how Drew Brees manages to stay untouched by the media? The guy is a turnover machine and makes some ridiculous decisions. I am not talking about just today and him getting sacked when in field goal range. I am talking about over the past 3 or 4 seasons now. Compare Brees and how teflon he is to the flack that someone like Tony Romo cops every season.

    You look at Brees career stats and basically for every 2 TDs he throws he throws an INT. Those stats are pretty ordinary if you ask me. Not to mention that he just loves to fumble the ball. I'm just amazed at how he is NEVER criticized by anyone in the media while other similar QBs seem to constantly be hammered.



    I think that since Brees has won a championship that affords him a ton of slack in the media. He also gets a lot less flack then someone like Romo because nobody cares about the Saints the way they care about the Cowboys. Once Brees retires and their bandwagon falls apart even less people will care. Cowboys are a public team so everything good and bad gets much more publicity. 
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    		Syddigs 24
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    replied to Stay with Teams in Certain Situations for $$$
    in NFL Betting
    Thanks, love the analysis and the angles you have here. Good luck today!
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    		sdiamond7 7
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    replied to Election Day ** IN GAME **
    in Politics
    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    Quote Originally Posted by Cool_Arrow:

    I'm saying GOP +7 in the Senate, GOP +5 in the House and Dems +4 governors.

    Looks like you under estimated across the board. Really close to your call in the Senate, but I'm shocked at how well the Republicans did in the Gov. races. I thought they'd lose Florida and Kansas and didn't think they had much of a shot in Illinois given how blue that state is.

    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    Quote Originally Posted by Cool_Arrow:

    I'm saying GOP +7 in the Senate, GOP +5 in the House and Dems +4 governors.

    Looks like you under estimated across the board. Really close to your call in the Senate, but I'm shocked at how well the Republicans did in the Gov. races. I thought they'd lose Florida and Kansas and didn't think they had much of a shot in Illinois given how blue that state is.


    Yep you are correct, really didn't see it this bad. I thought Udall and hagan would hang on but didn't. I'm shocked about the MD Gov race. Didn't even know that was competitive. Dems botched it in Florida as Scott narrowly prevails again. The House is so hard to predict but several races that didn't look like they were on the radar went south.
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    		dytide 61
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    replied to Senate Race Forecast
    in Politics
    Quote Originally Posted by canovsp:

    Was Virginia even on the map of "Up for Grabs"?

    No it wasn't. It was something like -3,000 for Warner so I didn't even bother putting it here since those are insane odds. This one is a shocker. Looks like Warner will be able to very, very narrowly win but this is definitely recount territory. Warner was up around 8-10% in polling aggregates. I have to give the GOP base credit tonight. They showed up and voted. 
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    		Cool_Arrow 6
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    replied to Colorado US Senate Race
    in Politics
    Call me surprised. I didn't see this one coming at all. Hopefully you guys faded me to make some money. 
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    		Cool_Arrow 12
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    replied to Election Day ** IN GAME **
    in Politics
    @ Sundance if Walker wins I think he is the GOP's best candidate. Conservative enough to win a primary but not Ted Cruz/Rand Paul where you polarize the masses. I think he wins by about 2% tonight. 
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    		dytide 61
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