lordzud

Sounds like you are on a meth bender. If you are toothless and look like an Ethiopian it will be confirmed.  Placing those MLB bets. 

Looks good, on two of those four and lean your way on the other two. 

No play. Great game to watch, coin flip to bet on. The over would look better if Corral wasn’t gimpy. 

That fat slob did a great coaching job this year. You lost your bet and you are being irrational 

Every time I read Bookie Assassins thread it reminds how much of how much I have to learn about situational betting. The number cruncher guys like Phil Steele and Brad Powers of Powers Picks newsletter have great analysis but they leave out the situational angles that BA has figured out. Anyway  and keep it up.

Wait and bet ML before kick off, line is moving a lot. or get scared and don’t bet it at all because when when the line moves like this it often means key players are out for NIU and some high rollers have inside information 

Always a good read

“The huskies have four wins of 1 or 2 points.” 

That is amazing, the cardiac kids have returned. I live in Illinois so I can’t bet this game but if I could I would bet a fun same game parlay. Don’t get in the habit of betting those, books love them for good reason, extra juice, but anyway I’d bet NIU ML +160 with the over -110. That’s nearly 4 to 1 bet. 

Georgia has 19 5 star athletes not 10. My take is the #1 seed has a big advantage in the 4 team playoff. While the #2 and #3 seeds are beating each other up they get to play the 4th seed, a much less talented opponent. But I’d really like to be wrong, I’m sick of the top SEC teams and Ohio State hoarding all the best athletes and winning every year. 

I respectfully disagree and will back it up with hard data, not just my personal half assed opinion. 24/7 sports has assembled a cool tool which I use to help me cap some games a team talent list that counts every teams 5-4-3 star athletes. Here’s what it has to say.

1) Bama.  14-50-11

2)Georgia  10-47-19

3)Ohio St  16-49-20

54)Cincy.  0-7-72

The big three’s third string were more highly recruited than Cincy’s first string. One can counter that Cincy has top tier skill position players and I wouldn’t argue. But anyone of these teams can grind Cincy down in the trenches over the course of a game. What I like doing is betting second half in these games matching teams with a big talent difference if it’s close first half. The better team recruiting wise can afford to send in replacements that are fresh while the less talented team has to keep their exhausted first string in the whole game. 

Martinez threw one costly interception a game, it’s true. Besides that he is one hell of a lot better than the Iowa quarterback  His yards per game are actually impressive. 2800 yards passing and the leading rusher for the team as well. 

I gamble looking at the odds, the new Nebraska QB will likely be ineffective and if so Nebraska can’t move the ball. But I also look at the odds another way, I have to win 55% of the time or my account doesn’t grow. So a no play decision is a good one as well, most of the time. So I never argue with people who look at a game and say no play here. If you don’t reduce your bets to a small number you aren’t going to win long term.

First of all, Martinez is definitely out for Fridays game. Confirmed by coach and multiple reliable media sources.

Second of all the line moved 5 points after the announcement was made, so that confirms it further. 

I always look at the numbers, specifically average yards per game divided into 4 categories, rushing and passing offense and yards given up rushing and passing defense. BIG difference between these two teams. Nebraska passed for 280 yards per game and has a huge offensive yards per game advantage. A lot of this was because they usually are coming from behind and had to be chucking the ball a lot more. Iowa has a much better defense and only gives up a little more than 100 yards per game rushing, an elite number. Martinez was fast and a very good scrambler as well, he was the teams leading rusher. 

Let’s take Martinez out of the game and replace him with a redshirt freshman going up against that Iowa defense. If he can’t be an effective passer than Nebraska is forced to run the ball against one of the best rushing defenses in the country. It is very rare for an inexperienced QB to be good his first start against an elite defense. Especially when he has only one week with the offense to prepare. Iowa has been exposed as not that good. They will probably grind out 20 plus points against Nebraska, like they do most weeks, but I’ll gladly take my chances. 

Don’t overthink it.

 Now let’s get them greedy stinkin books owned by billionaires who disdain you

You cannot predict the teams from the worst FCS conferences year to year, I gave up trying. The better teams in stronger conferences have depth at every position. So when the injuries start to mount, and they do for every team, these teams take a much bigger hit. Take out one dominant linebacker along with a couple of dependable O linemen and suddenly the team goes from good to below average. What also happens with the new transfer rules is these really good players transfer to better programs. Do you want to play in front of 3000 fans at Ball State or 80,000? Do you want to walk or do you want a nice new leased car that a car dealer that just loves his team lends you free of charge. Wouldn’t you prefer a coffee cup full of hundreds handed to you after every start, or do you want to be a very broke college kid at some second rate college.

Iowa -1.5

One of the most over rated teams in the country, Iowa, going up against one of the most under rated teams Nebraska and I’m picking Iowa???

Sure Am. Martinez the Nebraska QB is out. He has thrown for 2800 yards and is a good scrambler and the teams leading rusher He is being replaced by a guy that has thrown 11 passes for the year. You tell me how Nebraska is going to move the ball against a very stout Iowa defense.

Iowa has pretty disappointing offense, they are not worth betting on if the spread is large, but 1.5 points and the opposing breaking in a new quarterback? Looks good to me.

 and get them greedy stinkin books

With Martinez out this changes this bet from a no play to betting Iowa -1.5. Martinez threw too many interceptions but he was overall a very good QB passing for 2800 yards and a good scrambler as well, being this teams leading rusher. You replace him with a guy that has 11 passes for the year going up against a very stout defense, looks like a no brainer, Iowa -1.5. 

I completely understand betting on Nebraska before this news, Iowa is over rated and Nebraska is under rated, but not now. I don’t see how Nebraska moves the ball.

  Everybody and get those greedy stinkin books

you might be right VeryBlueJay but looking through all these newsletters has confirmed my suspicions about touts in general. Most of them are two bit hustlers that constantly lie about their records. The purpose of this thread is to tell gamblers information is free if you know where to look for it.

I hope you are everything you say you are but my bullshite antennae have a mind of their own and they are waving frantically 

Phil Steele’s newsletter Inside the Pressbox is always a good read but he is only available at the RX forum in the forum titled Rubber Room and then under Newsletters. 

He likes a handful of teams but the 3 I am following him on are Wisconsin, East Carolina, and North Texas. Go read the entire paragraph for his explanations.

Wisky is playing Nebraska who hasn’t lost by more than 9 points all year and the spread is 9.5. Some of our best cappers are on Nebraska so be cautious. But Steele says Wisconsin’s defense is comparable to Georgia’s and that is some high praise indeed. The Wisconsin QB has sorted out his early season problems but the Nebraska QB is going the other direction presumably because he isn’t 100%. The dude is playing with a broken jaw.

East Carolina has been an ATS cash machine the last five weeks and Steele always uses informative metrics to support his picks. He compares yards per game against conference foes and East Carolina is clearly better than Navy.

The last game I like he picked has a goofy soap opera going on in the background that sealed the deal for me. North Texas is not a good team but they are playing much better late in the season. FIU is horrible AND they just fired their coach in a completely classless manner. The fired coach rightfully badmouthed the program, their equipment is shabby, not fit for a high school program. This week the players found out their coach was fired because the University posted his job was vacant. Do you think the FIU players will be motivated this week?

Scuse me, Southern Miss isn’t playing Georgia State, Arkansas State is. Another point utterly unrelated but important to cappers is home field advantage doesn’t mean nearly as much when it’s a couple of podunk teams playing in November and no one is in the stands. But the books still shade the line 3 points because of home field advantage. I bet against home dogs, a big no no among cappers, all the time. But only with teams that I know have little home field advantage because no one is in the stands. I played football, you play harder when you are winning. When you are losing all the time, everyone is going through the motions, teammates bicker with each other, back door covers are caused not by the players but the damn coaches who phuck up the offense by playing conservative. 

The losing teams on the other side of Skipsters picks have been very good to me. I’ve faded Southern Mississippi and Temple a bunch of times. ATS those teams are both 2-8 against the spread. Other teams that have been cash cows to fade and I have done so repeatedly are Indiana, Kansas, Rice, and Missouri. 

The problem is it’s week twelve and the word is out that these teams stink. The lines are much higher and I choose to make them no plays now and save my money for next year. You have got to win 55% of the time to build a bankroll and it’s damned hard. Earlier in the season the sharper newsletters were fading these terrible teams a bunch of times and the lines were much lower because the word wasn’t out about just how bad these teams are this year. Next year it will be different teams that stink and I’ll be fading them again thanks to the newsletters pointing out who they are.