The Houston Astros (24-32) are in danger of a four-game sweep after dropping the first three against the Seattle Mariners (31-26).
Game 4 gets underway Thursday afternoon in Seattle and according to the MLB odds, the Mariners (-140) are favored to sweep.
The first three games of the series all flew Under the total, and our MLB picks and predictions for Thursday, May 30 believe that will be the case once more today.
Astros vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (+100 at Caesars)
My analysis
Each of the first three games of this series between the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners has cashed the Under. Offense has been at a premium for two teams combining to average just 4.7 runs per game in the series.
Seattle superstar pitcher Logan Gilbert gets the call on Thursday and looks to continue both his — and his team’s — success on the mound. The tall righty has been superb at T-Mobile Park with a 2.36 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. The Mariners have tended to play in low-scoring games when the 6-foot-6 hurler is on the bump, going 0-4 O/U in his four starts at home.
Gilbert doesn’t do any one thing particularly well and not much jumps off the page about his analytical profile, but he’s a well-rounded pitcher. His off-speed pitches have been particularly lethal, placing him in the 97th percentile in breaking run value, but his entire arsenal is nasty as he ranks fifth among starters in Stuff+ (121).
The Stetson University product faces a Houston lineup that has scored more than five runs just once in its last seven games, so I like his chances of success again this afternoon.
Now let’s talk about something that hasn’t been quite as prolific on the diamond as Gilbert — the lineup behind him. Seattle has been lost at the plate against righties all year, posting a league-worst 29.2% K% that is two full ticks below the next-closest team. Across the last 15 days, the Mariners rank just 24th in wRC+ (89) and 26th in wOBA (.287) against righties.
Houston starter Spencer Arrighetti is a prospect that I hold in high regard despite his unseemly 6.93 ERA through his first eight starts in the big leagues. He’s still managed to be a high-strikeout guy, averaging 10.3 Ks per nine innings, but he’s been snakebit by an absurd .394 BABIP and 62.5% left-on-base %.
The rookie’s 4.55 xERA and 3.90 FIP are far more palatable, and the projection systems all call for an ERA and FIP in the mid-4.00s. He’s settled in some by allowing three earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts and I expect to see some positive regression here against a struggling Seattle lineup.
Astros vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Spencer Arrighetti Over 6.5 strikeouts
Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 hits
The Mariners have the league’s highest K% (28.2%) and are showing no signs of slowing down. Both Justin Verlander and Hunter Brown accumulated nine strikeouts in the last two games. I’ll bet on Arrighetti continuing this success considering he has a decent whiff% (26.7%) and has routinely punched out batters at every level.
Gilbert has been dominant against Jeremy Pena in his career, holding the Houston hitter to just 1-for-16 with a minuscule .180 OPS. I’ll bet on that run of futility continuing for a batter who has gone hitless in three of his last six games yet has juicy plus-money odds to do so again on Thursday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Mariners odds
Astros vs Mariners live odds
Astros vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Houston +1.5 | Seattle -1.5
- Moneyline: Houston +126 | Seattle -137
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Astros vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mariners are 14-4 in their last 18 home games and the Astros have struggled on the road all year (10-17).
- The Astros haven’t been able to get it going offensively on the road, cashing their team total Under in 19 of their last 27 away games.
- The Astros are 0-5 O/U in their last five games while the Mariners are 1-6 O/U in their last seven.
- The Mariners have hit the Under in 19 of their last 27 games at T-Mobile Park.
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Astros vs Mariners trend
The Mariners are 8-19-1 O/U at home while the Astros are 9-17-1 O/U on the road. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mariners
Astros vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, RSNW |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Spencer Arrighetti (2-5, 6.93 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Logan Gilbert (3-2, 3.06 ERA) |
Astros vs Mariners latest injuries
Astros vs Mariners weather
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