It’s a battle of division leader vs. Wild Card leader when the Houston Astros visit the Baltimore Orioles for the third game of a four-game set this weekend.
With the teams splitting the first two games of this series, Houston is now a -130 moneyline road favorite on Saturday in the MLB odds.
Our Astros vs. Orioles prediction is targeting the Under as the starting pitchers are in a groove. Check out our MLB picks for August 24.
Astros vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
After winning 11 of 12 to move to a season-best 12 games over .500 and to the top of the AL West, the Houston Astros stumbled back to reality, dropping three of their last four. That includes last night's 7-5 defeat to the Baltimore Orioles.
The Astros' pitching has been getting knocked around, allowing 17 runs across their most recent three losses, but this club owns a Top 10 ERA, and they turn to veteran lefty Framber Valdez to get things back on track.
Valdez has been red hot in August, winning all three starts, allowing just three earned runs across the 21 1/3 innings he’s tossed. Last time out, Valdez threw seven innings of three-hit ball, giving up no runs, walking one, and striking out nine in a 2-0 win over the White Sox.
He’s had success against Baltimore already this season, giving up just one earned run over seven innings while striking out seven in an 8-1 win.
Can he do it again? Baltimore boasts one of the elite offenses in MLB, averaging five runs per contest, which ranks third. The Orioles also lead the majors in home runs and slugging percentage.
Then again, they might not need the bats as much as they think, if Albert Suarez pitches like he’s been pitching of late.
The right-hander has been a dynamo across his last three starts, giving up not a single run while throwing 17 2/3 innings. Last time out, Suarez scattered seven hits over six innings, not allowing a run or a walk while adding six punchouts and picking up the 4-2 win over Boston.
He was hit hard by the Astros in his lone start against them this season (10 hits and five earned runs over five innings), but he’s currently at his best this season and has a better chance of settling in against Houston at home where he’s 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA.
What sticks out most in each of the last three starts for both Valdez and Suarez is the total, which has not crossed Saturday’s set line of 8.5 runs. That’s where I’ll stay for my best bet.
Astros vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Anthony Santander 2+ total bases
Alex Bregman 2+ total bases
Outfielder Anthony Santander enters Saturday third in the home run chase, and he’s done well in his limited at-bats against Valdez, going 4-for-11 with a home run and one RBI.
Santander was a wrecking ball on Friday, going 2-for-4 with a home run, four RBI, and two runs scored. He has 15 home runs and 26 extra base hits at Camden Yards this year, and is a good candidate to gain two total bases.
Astros third baseman Alex Bregman had a rare off night in August when he went 0-for-5 in Friday’s loss to Baltimore. That’s just the second time in his last 12 games he’s failed to pick up a hit, picking up at least two total bases in six of those games.
Bregman has only faced Suarez twice, but he’s had the advantage, picking up a pair of doubles. It’s a small sample size, but enough to roll Bregman into this SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Orioles odds
Astros vs Orioles live odds
Astros vs Orioles opening odds
- Moneyline: Houston -1.5 (-105) | Baltimore +1.5 (-115)
- Run line: Houston -130 | Baltimore +110
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Astros vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Houston has won five of the last six vs. Baltimore.
- The Orioles are just 3-7-0 against the spread in their last 10.
- Baltimore has gone Under the total in five of its last seven.
Astros vs Orioles trend
The underdogs have won nine of the last 10 games between these teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Orioles.
Astros vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
SCHN, MASN2
|
| Astros starting pitcher: | Framber Valdez (13-5, 3.20 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Albert Suarez (6-4, 3.18 ERA) |
Astros vs Orioles latest injuries
Astros vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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