The New York Yankees have put a few wins together and will look to continue that when they open up a series with the Houston Astros.
My Astros vs. Yankees predictions determine if New York will keep the good times rolling after sweeping the Detroit Tigers or if Houston can finally start putting its early-season problems in the rearview mirror.
Find out where I land in my MLB picks for Tuesday, May 7th.
Astros vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Astros F5 +0.5 (-145 at BetMGM)
My analysis
After shoulder inflammation delayed the start of his 2024 campaign, Justin Verlander mainly looked like himself when he finally took the mound.
The 41-year-old opened the season two weeks ago in impressive fashion when he allowed just two earned runs over six sharp innings. He'll look to build on that here, and I'm backing him to have success. My best bet is grabbing the Astros early on the spread in the first five innings.
The New York Yankees have blown primarily hot and cold over the last month. As mentioned, they got a nice sweep of the Detroit Tigers heading into this series, but that came on the heels of being outclassed by the Baltimore Orioles. I'm concerned that their offensive issues will carry over for a bit, which rings even truer when facing a future first-ballot Hall-of-Fame pitcher.
Verlander has had great success against the Yankees throughout his career. He's allowed two earned runs or less and delivered "quality starts" in each of his last three outings against the Bombers. He should succeed against this year's iteration, at least for now. Surprisingly, this Yankees team hasn't hit the fastball well this year. That's a pitch that Verlander leans on and I expect him to do a solid job of holding this offense down today because of it. The Houston Astros ace has enough tools in the toolbox to shift gears if that approach falters.
On the other hand, Luis Gil will take the mound for New York, and while the metrics are impressive, the matchup for Houston is solid. Like his counterpart, Gil will throw many fastballs, which makes up even more of his pitching arsenal than Verlander's. Unlike their opponents, this is a pitch that the Astros have hit quite well this season.
Overall, the Astros have a distinct advantage between these two pitchers, and we projected this number at -167 because of it, giving us a decisive edge in the first half of the game.
Astros vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Astros F5 +0.5
Under 8.5
Our best bet handicap primarily focuses on Verlander's ability to tame the Yankees offense. Thus, we're pairing it with a highly correlated play by the Under for today's same-game parlay. This Astros offense has yet to explode on anyone lately and ranks near the bottom of baseball, averaging three runs in its last three games. A handicap that expects them to win will also envision a low-scoring contest. This is the best way to capture that.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Yankees odds
Astros vs Yankees live odds
Astros vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Houston +1.5 (-205) | New York -1.5 (+182)
- Moneyline: Houston +102 | New York -111
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Astros vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- Bettors are up +2.5 units on the season by backing New York.
- Conversely, bettors are down -2.9 units in the season when backing Houston.
- New York has recently dominated in this matchup with an 8-2 record in the last 10.
- The total in that same timeframe is 3-5-2 to the Over.
Astros vs Yankees trend
The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 48 away games (+20.35 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Yankees
Astros vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, YES |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Justin Verlander (1-0, 2.08 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (2-1, 3.19 ERA) |
Astros vs Yankees latest injuries
Astros vs Yankees weather
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