It was a great start in the opener as I went 2-0 for +2.3 units on Tuesday morning. I'm already on the Under 8.5 for Wednesday's game but looking to bet some pitcher props in the Tokyo finale between Justin Steele and Roki Sasaki.
These are my best pitcher edges and MLB picks for Wednesday, March 19.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: March 19
Sasaki u1.5 walks allowed (+135 at bet365)
Today’s best SP angles
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The angle: Roki Sasaki could have a short leash even if he is pitching well
The move: Roki Sasaki Under 1.5 walks allowed (+135 at bet365)
Los Angeles Dodgers hurler Roki Sasaki will be pitching on a familiar mound in the Tokyo Dome but might not see a lot of work in his MLB debut. The exciting rookie has dominated over his seven innings in spring training (0 ER, 7:3 K:BB rate), but has not exceeded 46 pitches in either game and threw just 41 pitches on Tuesday, March 11. It would be surprising to see Dave Roberts give him more than 15 pitches on his spring high.
That would put the right-hander at around 60 pitches. He did record 12 outs on those 41 pitches last week and can be efficient even with a low workload, but to expect him to see a lot of batters is unlikely. He faced just 14 batters in his last start so I wouldn't be surprised if he had a twice-through-the-order limit in his debut.
His outs-recorded prop sits at 13.5, which is a vulnerable number, but his Under 1.5 walks at +132 is the best market to attack.
He does have three walks over seven innings in his warmups, but this is a pitcher who posted a 129:32 K:BB rate last year in Japan (111 innings) and a 135:17 K:BB rate the season before (91 innings). That works out to a 6.2% walk rate vs. 795 batters faced and a near 2.0 BB/9.
THE BAT projects a 7.7% BB% this year but he could finish in the Top 40 of all starting pitchers in terms of BB%. His splitter also has unique arm-side movement that will make it tough on lefties.
For a pitcher who might only see 18 batters, it's tough to say no. Chicago Cubs lefty Justin Steele is an elite command pitcher and is priced at -200 for the same prop.
Pricing pitchers with little to no MLB experience is a tough task and Sasaki has plenty of paths to this Under, which also include pitching well and getting shut down at 55 pitches. The first at-bat with Ian Happ will be the sweatiest as he looks to calm his nerves but he has pitched on giant stages in this same ballpark so that is comforting.
I'd buy this to +110/+115.
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The angle: No bet on Justin Steele as there are a lot of question marks
The move: Stay off
I wish there was a buy-low spot for Steele here. He had an ugly 9.35 ERA in spring but battled the flu, which pushed back his last start. In that first game back from the illness, he threw 64 pitches, gave up 10 hits, and allowed seven runs over 11 outs. I'm not sure how traveling across the globe has helped him get back to 100% health when it looks like other players in Japan are dealing with a similar illness.
It's tough to judge where his pitch count will be as I doubt he would throw more than 75 pitches after Craig Counsell removed Shota Imanaga, who didn't allow a hit or run over his 69 pitches. Steele's out market is at 14.5 paying -130 to the Under, but he has been such an efficient pitcher, and it is tough to bet his Unders.
Steele's range of outcomes is too wide to bet on Wednesday morning due to his illness and Counsell's possible short leash early in the season. In his opener last year, he threw 67 pitches and went 14 outs. The best thing I can come up with is Steele to not record the win and Under 4.5 hits allowed at +100. I'm not putting it on the card, though.
Not intended for use in MA.
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