The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs meet for Game 2 of their three-game set Tuesday at Wrigley Field, and the Cubbies will be looking for a third consecutive win after topping the Brew Crew 3-1 in the series opener.
Chicago sends veteran righty Jameson Taillon to the hill Tuesday, and my Brewers vs. Cubs predictions expect some of his good luck to run out against Milwaukee.
Check out the best free MLB picks for tonight’s NL Central showdown.
Brewers vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Jameson Taillon Under 17.5 outs (+100 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Chicago Cubs righty Jameson Taillon has outperformed his underlying metrics and been quite lucky with a 3.10 ERA well below his 3.71 xERA and 4.18 xFIP. Additionally, his 19.6 strikeout percentage is distinctly short of last year’s 21.4% mark, and the veteran also has a lower BABIP (.281 vs. .292) and higher strand rate (75.7 LOB% vs. 64.6%).
The good fortune has been even more noticeable across Taillon’s past seven starts, too. He’s spun a 2.68 ERA with an 82.8 LOB% and .252 BABIP to mask his ho-hum 3.84 xFIP. Tallion’s velocity is also down across the board this year, including noticeable dips to his fastball, cutter and sinker, per FanGraphs.
Further, expect to see some statistical correction ahead of his swinging and called strikes moving forward. Taillon’s swinging strike percentage is down from last year (9.6% vs. 8.7%), while his called strikes percentage is up (16.8% vs. 18.2%). Simply put, a smoke-and-mirrors pitch mix only fools hitters for so long, and this will be Taillon’s fourth start against the Milwaukee Brewers this season.
Turning to the Brew Crew, they’ve been better against Taillon in each game they’ve faced him, and Milwaukee sports a third-ranked 9.5 BB% and seventh-ranked .324 wOBA and 109 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. The Brewers have also been even better in July with respective overall 10.7%, .326 and 111 marks.
Brewers vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Jameson Taillon Under 17.5 outs
Milwaukee starter Colin Rea has also been the beneficiary of favorable luck this season, with his 3.77 ERA flying under his 5.07 xERA and 4.47 xFIP. Chicago has been better at the dish in July, too. The Cubs have scored 4.41 runs per game this month, with a respectable .319 wOBA and 107 wRC+, which are all noticeably above their respective 3.66, .304 and 96 June marks.
Finally, I also value the market moving to the Over in this game across the board, and the wind forecasted to be modestly blowing out at Wrigley Field tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Cubs odds
Brewers vs Cubs live odds
Brewers vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 (-205) | Chicago -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +100 | Chicago -120
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Brewers vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- The early betting action has come in on the Brewers, with Pinnacle moving from an opening Milwaukee +109 to -101 as of Tuesday morning. Chicago is listed as a short home favorite at -107.
- While the line movement has been similar at bet365, the two teams are both trading at -110 odds as of Tuesday morning.
- As noted, there has been movement to the Over in this game across shops.
- Both Pinnacle and bet365 opened with an 8.0 total, and they’re both trading at an 8.5 number as of Tuesday morning.
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Brewers vs Cubs trend
The Brewers have hit the Over in 51 of their last 94 games (+9.75 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs
Brewers vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, Marquee |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Colin Rea (9-3, 3.77 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jameson Taillon (7-4, 3.10 ERA) |
Brewers vs Cubs latest injuries
Brewers vs Cubs weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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