This NL Central series concludes this afternoon as the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Milwaukee Brewers at PNC Park.
Lineup disparity has my Brewers vs. Pirates prediction bullish on the road favorites.
Read on for my MLB picks for Thursday, September 26
Brewers vs Pirates prediction
My best bet
Brewers -1.5 (+134 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Milwaukee Brewers have the obvious hitting advantage in this matchup, besting the Pittsburgh Pirates in virtually every meaningful hitting category this season. The Brewers have scored 112 more runs than the Pirates this season as a result.
However, the starting pitching matchup between Aaron Civale and Mitch Keller is much closer, though I still give the former a slight edge. The right-hander outranks Keller in xERA, xBA, and strikeout rate.
Even if you want to call the starting pitching matchup a wash, you can’t say the same about the bullpen. Milwaukee’s relief staff paces Pittsburgh’s in ERA (3.17 to 4.56), FIP (3.82 to 3.98), and xFIP (3.93 to 4.38). Those gaps are significant, as Milwaukee is consistently among the league's best relief corps while the Pirates are plundering the bottom of the barrel.
The only advantage one could argue for the Pirates is they're playing at home. However, the Brewers’ road win percentage outweighs Pittsburgh’s home win percentage. At 45-35 away from American Family Field, only the Padres have a better record on the highway in the NL.
Finally, there is more value in backing Milwaukee on the run line at +134 rather than laying -116 on the moneyline. The Pirates have lost by two or more runs in each of Keller’s past five starts.
Brewers vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)
Brewers -1.5
Mitch Keller Under 5.5 strikeouts
William Contreras Over 0.5 hits
Keller ranks in MLB's bottom half in chase, whiff, and strikeout rates. You can find his strikeout prop at 5.5, which he has failed to clear in seven of his past 12 starts.
We'll need some offense if we're backing the Brewers to win by two or more runs. Enter William Contreras, who boasts a .385 BA and .492 xBA through 14 career plate appearances against Keller.
Contreras has recorded 18 hits over his past 15 games, posting a .360 BA in the process.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Pirates odds
Brewers vs Pirates live odds
Brewers vs Pirates opening odds
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -120 | Pittsburgh +100
- Run line: Milwaukee -1.5 (+135) | Pittsburgh +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Brewers vs Pirates moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a -116 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- The total has remained at its opening number of 8.0.
- It's more likely that this total moves to 8.5 rather than 7.5, given that both starting pitchers rank in the bottom half of the league in xERA.
Brewers vs Pirates trend
Pittsburgh has lost by two or more runs in each of Keller’s past five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Pirates.
Brewers vs Pirates game info
| Location: | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 12:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSWI, SNP |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Aaron Civale (7-9, 4.53 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Mitch Keller (11-11, 4.21 ERA) |
Brewers vs Pirates latest injuries
Brewers vs Pirates weather
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