The Chicago Cubs head to PNC Park to begin a three-game set with the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 26, with the division rivals both needing to string together wins in bunches to realistically enter the NL Wild Card race.
Pittsburgh will send Mitch Keller to the bump, with our top Cubs vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks calling for the Pittsburgh hurler to issue a pair of free passes to Chicago’s disciplined batters.
Cubs vs Pirates prediction
My best bet
Mitch Keller Over 1.5 walks allowed (-140 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
A quick peek at Mitch Keller’s game log shows an excellent run at PNC Park. He sports a 2.32 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across his past five home starts while also limiting opposing hitters to a pedestrian .217 batting average and .271 wOBA.
I’m anticipating the Pittsburgh Pirates righty having another solid outing against the Chicago Cubs tonight, including pitching deep enough into the ball game to issue two or more free passes.
Keller’s outs total is trading at 17.5, with the Over carrying a huge vig across the board, and he’s also walked two or more in six of his past seven outings for a healthy 8.4% walk rate. For comparison, he had a 5.7% walk rate through his first 18 starts of the season.
A simple explanation for the increase in freebies is he’s generating fewer swinging strikes and enticing batters to swing at fewer pitches outside the strike zone across his latest seven trips to the bump, per FanGraphs. Keller's also throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone.
Finally, the Cubs enter with a 12th-ranked 8.3% overall BB rate in August and a fifth-ranked 9.3% mark against right-handed hurlers for the campaign.
Cubs vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)
Mitch Keller Over 1.5 walks
Jameson Taillon 4+ strikeouts
Ian Happ 2+ hits + runs + RBI
Taillon has recorded four or more punchouts in each of his past five starts, and the Pirates strike out in bunches and rank seventh highest with a 24.2% K rate against righties in addition to an overall 26.8% mark in August. Additionally, Pittsburgh ranks second last with a .288 wOBA against RHP this season.
Cubs outfielder Ian Happ sports a .345 on-base percentage, .344 wOBA, and .216 ISO against righties this season, and he’s 9-for-25 with three homers, seven RBI, and a 1.267 OPS against Keller during his career.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Pirates odds
Cubs vs Pirates live odds
Cubs vs Pirates opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago -106 | Pittsburgh -102
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-224) | Pittsburgh -1.5 (+197)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-104) | Under 8.5 (-108)
Cubs vs Pirates moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This moneyline has moved slightly to the Pittsburgh side at Pinnacle, with the Bucs opening at -102, peaking at -112, and trading at -110 as of Monday afternoon.
- There has been similar back-and-forth action at bet365, except Pittsburgh opened -120 and is down to -110 at the shop.
- The action has been to the Over in this game.
- Pinnacle has moved from an opening Over 8.5 -104 to -111, while bet365 opened with an 8.0 total with the Over priced at -115, and the shop is at Over 8.5 -115 as of Monday afternoon.
Cubs vs Pirates trend
Mitch Keller has walked two or more batters in six of his past seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Pirates.
Cubs vs Pirates game info
| Location: | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Monday, 8-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee Sports Network, SportsNet-Pittsburgh |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jameson Taillon (8-8, 3.77 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Mitch Keller (11-7, 3.76 ERA) |
Cubs vs Pirates latest injuries
Cubs vs Pirates weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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