The Chicago Cubs continue their short roadie on June 11 with the start of a three-game inter-league series against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Zach Eflin is making his second start since a short stint on the IL, and my Cubs vs. Rays predictions believe the Tampa hurler will have trouble stacking up Ks against this Chicago lineup. Find out why in the MLB picks below.
Cubs vs Rays prediction
My best bet
Zach Eflin Under 4.5 strikeouts (-105 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Tampa Bay Rays starter Zach Eflin is making his second start since returning from a stint on the IL with back issues. Eflin’s low walk has always been his saving grace — allowing him to pitch deeper into games than he probably should — but this season, his sinker-cutter duo isn’t getting swings and misses.
That’s resulted in Eflin’s lowest strikeout total across his past seven seasons, and he won’t rack up many today against the Chicago Cubs.
The Cubbies are in a scoring funk, plating only 13 runs across this current four-game road swing. They've struggled to score runs early and have been miserable with runners in scoring position. That changed on Sunday when Chicago chased RHP Frankie Montas after 1 1/3 frames, thanks to more aggression at the plate.
Montas doesn’t have the same type of command as Eflin does, but they are similar pitchers. Like Montas, Eflin doesn’t have the heat to blow the Cubbies' sticks away, and he could be in for a similar day.
Eflin has cleared his strikeout prop twice across his last 10 starts. His low walk rate means he’s always around the plate, and I expect the Cubs to continue being aggressive early in the count because of Eflin's lack of a heater.
He’s only struck out 17% of his batters faced this season and meets a Chicago offense with a lower strikeout rate on the road (22%) than at the Friendly Confines.
Cubs vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Zach Eflin Under 4.5 strikeouts
Dansby Swanson to get a hit
Jose Siri to get a hit
I don’t expect Eflin to last long enough to clear his number, and Cubs SS Dansby Swanson is one reason why.
Swanson is riding a three-game hitting streak and is starting to heat up. The 30-year-old infielder has cleared his hits prop in eight of his past 10 and is 12-for-31 lifetime with a couple of bombs against Eflin.
Rays OF Jose Siri has hit safely in six of his past 10 games, but his small sample size of 2-for-6 size against Cubs starter Jameson Taillon is good, and Taillon has allowed six hits or more in each of his last five starts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Rays odds
Cubs vs Rays live odds
Cubs vs Rays opening odds
- Run line: Chicago + 1.5 (-180) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Chicago (+120) | Tampa Bay (-142)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-118) | Under 7.5 (-102)
Cubs vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Tampa Bay Rays opened up in the -140 range just about everywhere, and little movement has happened as of writing.
- Over/Under markets haven’t budged from the 7.5 opener. Over 7.5 markets are trading odds of -115 to -120, while Under 7.5 are priced from +100 to -105.
- The Rays have a 34-30 O/U mark this season, while Chicago sits at 30-33.
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Cubs vs Rays trend
Zac Eflin has failed to clear his strikeout prop in eight of his past 10 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Rays
Cubs vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:50 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, Bally Sports Sun |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jameson Taillon (3-2, 3.47 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Zach Eflin (3-4, 4.14 ERA) |
Cubs vs Rays latest injuries
Cubs vs Rays weather
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