The Chicago Cubs' inability to score before the sixth inning has plagued them through the first two games of their four-game series with the Cincinnati Reds.
Chicago is a slight underdog today, but my Cubs vs. Reds predictions are cutting the game in half and focusing on why the Cubbies will win the first five innings. Read all about it in my MLB picks for this June 8 showdown.
Cubs vs Reds prediction
My best bet
Cubs F5 moneyline (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Chicago Cubs have only scored six runs through the first two games, with just two coming before the fifth stanza. The lack of early production has plagued the Cubbies, but they can turn things around today against Cincinnati Reds southpaw Andrew Abbott.
Abbott is primarily a flyball pitcher with a weak fastball. He’s also pitched much better away from home than at GABP — he coughed up a pair of bombs in his last start here against the Cardinals, and he's served up five HR across 27 1/3 home frames.
The Cubs lineup has belted a dozen bombs off lefties this season, and its .311 on-base percentage and .290 BABIP suggest if they can drive a couple of fastballs, they'll make Abbott pay.
Cincy tagged Ben Brown for five earned runs in his last start, but this kid is whiffing nearly 11 hitters per nine with a 3.38 xFIP. He meets a sometimes-sluggish Cincinnati lineup with a 26.5% strikeout rate and 26th in creating runs (wRC+ 88 against righties).
This is a game Chicago needs to win. The Cubbies have dropped four of their last five on the road, and they don’t want to lose another series to the Reds.
They can get to Abbott early, and Brown has electric stuff that can keep Cincinnati's bats quiet enough for Chicago to lead after five frames.
Cubs vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs F5 moneyline
Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 strikeouts
Ben Brown Over 5.5 strikeouts
Abbott has cleared his strikeout total once across his last five and meets a Cubs offense that doesn’t strike out much (20%) and makes plenty of contact.
Brown has cleared his strikeout number across his last three starts including six last Sunday against the Reds. Cincy has the second-worst strikeout rate against righties and has whiffed 14 times in this series.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Reds odds
Cubs vs Reds live odds
Cubs vs Reds opening odds
- Run line: Chicago - 1.5 (-146) | Cincinnati +1.5 (-190)
- Moneyline: Chicago (-102) | Cincinnati (-116)
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-110) | Under 9.0 (-110)
Cubs vs Reds spread and Over/Under analysis
- Some cash has come in on the Cubs, driving their opening +100 price to a high of -102. Cincinnati markets are trading from -116 to -120.
- Over/Under markets opened at 9.0, and that number has held steady. Over markets are trading from -110 to -115, while Under 9.0 has odds from -105 to -112.
- 61% of the bets and 54% of the money at BetMGM is on Over markets.
- Just 21% of the bets are on Chicago at BetMGM, but 45% of the cash is.
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Cubs vs Reds trend
The Cincinnati Reds have only hit the first five innings (F5) moneyline in 22 of their last 61 games (-8.30 Units / -11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Reds
Cubs vs Reds game info
| Location: | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 6-8-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, BSOH |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Ben Brown (1-2, 3.33 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Andrew Abbott (4-5, 3.39 ERA) |
Cubs vs Reds latest injuries
Cubs vs Reds weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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