We are back. The Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks will get a three-game series going at Wrigley Field as they open the day and bring us back from the All-Star break.
Chicago finished hot before the break winning seven of its last 10 games while Arizona has had a bit of a World Series hangover, heading into the second half of the season one game out of the final NL Wild Card. My Diamondbacks vs. Cubs predictions expect these offenses to start things off with a bang.
Read on for my free MLB picks on Friday, July 19th.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Over 7.5 (+105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Backing runs has been a great bet for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season and this is a Chicago Cubs offense that projects for some positive regression in the second half of the season. Add those up and we like runs here today, and I'd play the Over to 8.0.
Zac Gallen will take the mound for the D-Backs and Zac Gallen at home has been a very different thing than Zac Gallen on the road. Gallen has pitched 11 fewer innings in road games but has allowed more home runs, a higher OPS, and more overall runs. This was a story for Gallen last year as well so I’m more willing to suggest there's something there instead of it being a random data flaw. The Cubs can take advantage of his road issues.
Like most fastball pitchers, Gallen has had trouble with hard contact. However, his issue in particular is the contact has been extreme. This is a place where will have to bet the Cubs expected positive regression more than the actual results. Chicago ranks near the bottom of the league in hard-hit rate, however, the underlying metrics suggest they are much better than that. With bats like Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, and Ian Happ in the lineup, I’m inclined to believe that — at least on the power front.
On the other side, we have Justin Steele, one of my favorite pitchers to bet on. That said, there’s reason to think Arizona can score a few runs.
Steele is one of the heaviest fastball throwing pitchers in baseball and Arizona has been great against that pitch on the season. Anywhere from six to seven players in the lineup have a batting average of over .300 against the pitch, while the majority has some of the highest run value in baseball against heaters. This will ultimately end up being strength on strength, and while Steele will win some battles, so will lose some to Arizona's hitters.
Each pitcher is solid, which has lowered the total to cheaper than it should be because both teams have relatively strong matchups. I’m happily taking this, especially at plus money.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5
Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 bases
Suzuki is a prime candidate to take advantage of the hard hits Gallen coughs up. He’s second overall among Cubs in hard-hit rate and is virtually guaranteed to get at least four at-bats — a nice feather in our cap.
Beyond that, he matches up favorably with the pitch mix he’ll see today. He’ll come into this game leading all Diamondbacks players in slugging percentage against the fastball this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs odds
Diamondbacks vs Cubs live odds
Diamondbacks vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Arizona -1.5 (+145) | Chicago +1.5 (-170)
- Moneyline: Arizona -125 | Chicago +105
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Diamondbacks vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Chicago has been one of the most profitable teams in baseball over the last 10 games with a 7-3 record and bettors are up just over five units
- Arizona has been strong over its last 10 games as well, going 6-4 and yielding bettors a profit of +2.2 units.
- The Diamondbacks have been a great Over team, with it 8-1-1 in their last 10 games.
- Arizona has also dominated this head-to-head series with seven wins in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs trend
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 37 games (+15.00 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Cubs
Diamondbacks vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Friday, 7-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, Marquee |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Zac Gallen (6-5, 3.87 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (2-3, 2.71 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Cubs weather
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