The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants start a three-game set at Oracle Park tonight. Arizona has been hot at the dish, and righty starter Ryne Nelson has been keeping opposing hitters in check down the stretch.
My Diamondbacks vs. Giants predictions are calling for Arizona to keep the good times rolling against the struggling San Francisco bats in the series opener tonight.
My full MLB picks dig deeper into the matchup below.
Diamondbacks vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Diamondbacks moneyline (-112 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
Arizona Diamondbacks righty Ryne Nelson has been sneaky good across his past 10 starts with a tidy 2.77 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 3.33 xFIP. His 20.4 K-BB% is a high-end mark, and he’s held opposing hitters in check with a .219 batting average, .274 BABIP, and pedestrian 4.9% barrel rate.
The San Francisco Giants aren’t an intimidating opponent, either. San Francisco ranks 24th with a .297 wOBA against right-handed arms for the season, and the Giants are down to a .290 overall mark while sporting the fourth-highest 26.5 K% over the past 30 days. It’s added up to just 3.84 runs per game for The Orange and Black.
It’s been just the opposite for Arizona. The Diamondbacks are dialed in at the dish with an MLB-best .368 wOBA, .364 on-base percentage, .208 ISO, and 6.66 runs per game over the past 30 days.
Additionally, Arizona ranks second in both wOBA (.337) and OBP (.341) against lefties for the season, and it’s southpaw Kyle Harrison’s turn in the rotation today. It just hasn’t been announced if he’ll officially start tonight. Still, I’m confident in the Diamondbacks offense, and Nelson on the hill against the reeling Giants.
I suspect there will be movement to the Arizona side of this moneyline ahead of the opening pitch regardless of who is announced as the Giants starter.
Diamondbacks vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Diamondbacks moneyline
Diamondbacks TT Over 3.5
Ryne Nelson Over 17.5 outs
All three legs are correlated and align with the case for the best bet. Arizona has scored four or more runs in five of its past six games and, as noted, the Diamondbacks have been an elite offense over the past 30 days.
Nelson has also recorded 18 or more outs in six of his past seven starts, including four straight. I also value that he is still well behind last year’s 165 2/3 combined innings across the majors and Triple-A, so I don't anticipate a pitch count or innings cap tonight with just 136 1/3 frames in 2024.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Giants odds
Diamondbacks vs Giants live odds
Diamondbacks vs Giants opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona +100 | San Francisco -120
- Run line: Arizona -1.5 (+145) | San Francisco +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Diamondbacks vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- I’m shocked the Diamondbacks aren’t trading as a larger favorite, and my best guess is it's because of the uncertainty of the San Francisco starting pitcher.
- Regardless of who starts for the Giants, I expect the money to come in on Arizona throughout the day.
- There hasn’t been meaningful movement to this total at either Pinnacle or bet365, and both shops have the number at 7.5.
Diamondbacks vs Giants trend
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the moneyline in 52 of their last 81 games (+21.70 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Giants.
Diamondbacks vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, NBC Sports Bay Area |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Ryne Nelson (9-6, 4.22 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Kyle Harrison (7-6, 4.22 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Giants latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Giants weather
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