The National League Championship Series returns to the Big Apple all knotted up at one win apiece and the stars on the field have put on a show so far.
Expect more fireworks in Game 3 as Walker Buehler toes the rubber against Luis Severino. So, let’s look at the MLB player props that can take advantage of that.
Here are my MLB picks and Dodgers vs. Mets predictions for Wednesday, Oct. 16.
Dodgers vs Mets NLCS Game 3 props
- Walker Buehler u14.5 outs (+110 at bet365)
- Luis Severino o2.5 ER (+125 at bet365)
- Mookie Betts o1.5 TB (+150 at bet365)
Picks made on 10-16 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Dodgers vs Mets props
Prop bet #1: Walker Buehler Under 14.5 Outs Recorded
I don’t expect Walker Buehler to be as bad as he was in his last start against the San Diego Padres, but that doesn’t mean I think he’ll go Over his outs recorded prop in Game 3 of the National League Championship, either.
The Los Angeles Dodgers righty got tagged for six runs on seven hits over five innings in Game 3 of the NLDS. All of those runs were surrendered in the second inning, and with Dave Roberts knowing he needed his best relievers later in the series, he let Buehler work. I’m not sure that will be the case this time around.
Buehler hasn’t been great this season, which is an understatement. Now, he opened the year on the IL as recovering from Tommy John surgery but then landed on the shelf again with a hip injury that cost him nearly two months.
The 30-year-old posted a 4.93 ERA with a .831 OPS against in his final eight regular season starts, and we know what happened in his first postseason outing.
Overall, he ranked in the 20th percentile in expected ERA and the 16th in opponent expected batting average. Now, he’ll have to deal with a scrappy New York Mets team that ranked 11th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching this season. Current Mets hitters have also gotten to him for a .256 xBA and a .466 xSLG over 87 plate appearances.
The other thing to note is that Buehler hasn’t been throwing a ton of pitches, topping 90 just once over his last nine starts.
Buehler’s outs recorded prop is sitting at 14.5, meaning he needs to go five innings to cash the Over. I believe that is his ceiling, so at plus money I’ll jump on the Under.
Prop bet #2: Luis Severino Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Buehler might not be the only starter in this game primed for a tough outing. Luis Severino gets the ball for the Mets, and while he’s ground out innings recently, it hasn’t been pretty, and the Dodgers' juggernaut lineup could prove too much.
It was a roller-coaster season for Severino and the numbers back that up, as he finished the year ranked in the 53rd percentile in expected ERA and the 45th percentile in opponent expected batting average.
Unfortunately, he ended the season on a bit of a downslope. The 30-year-old right-hander pitched to a 5.63 ERA over his final three starts and that has carried over into the postseason.
Severino surrendered four runs on eight hits over six innings in Game 1 of the Wild-Card Round against the Milwaukee Brewers and followed that up by giving up three runs on six hits over six innings in Game 2 of the NLDS vs. the Philadelphia Phillies.
So, that makes five straight starts where Severino has allowed three or more earned runs and it’s not like he has great numbers against the Dodgers. Current Dodgers batters have combined for a .269 expected batting average and a .540 expected slugging percentage over 108 plate appearances vs. Severino.
The Dodgers have also been super clutch this postseason, ranking first in batting average and OPS with runners in scoring position.
With the Mets’ propensity to let Severino work things out on his own against a tough lineup, I’ll happily take Severino to go Over 2.5 earned runs at plus money.
Prop bet #3: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases
The Dodgers batter who’s given Severino the most problems has been, without a doubt, Mookie Betts.
These two have been battling since back when they were each in the American League East. While it’s been a bit of a slow start to the postseason for Betts, you know the stage isn’t too big for this two-time World Series champion.
Betts is hitting .192 but also has two home runs, six RBI, and a .785 OPS. So, he’s still been dangerous and if there’s anyone he can break out of this pseudo-funk against, it’s Severino.
The Dodgers outfielder is 11-for-34 with four doubles and a home run in his career vs. the Mets starter. That’s good for a .296 expected batting average and a .652 expected slugging percentage.
At the end of the day, Mookie’s low postseason batting average is giving us a solid number on his total bases prop. The Over 1.5 is sitting at a tantalizing +150. Even with that low batting average, Betts has eclipsed this number three times in the last five games, where he has collected three extra-base hits.
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