As the ALCS starts in the Bronx, the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians will begin the battle to determine the World Series representative out of the American League this evening.
My Guardians vs. Yankees predictions expect an offensive explosion in prime time. The Guardians had to work to get here, seeing off a young, gritty Detroit Tigers team in five games. Things were smoother for the Yankees, who took care of business against the Kansas City Royals in four games. So now the stage is set with two vulnerable pitchers on the mound in game one.
Read on for my MLB picks, and be sure to check out our Guardians vs. Yankees props.
Guardians vs Yankees prediction
Who will win Guardians vs Yankees Game 1?
I'll take the New York Yankees, although it comes with minimal conviction because these are two starting pitchers who I expect will surrender runs and put their teams in poor positions. However, it's hard for me to pass up the opportunity to back the Yankees against Alex Cobb, a starting pitcher in the bottom 20th percentile of baseball in hard-hit rate.
My Guardians vs Yankees best bet
Pick
Over 7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Let's start with Cobb, the more unpredictable pitcher on the mound today.
The Cleveland Guardians right-hander pitched twice since September 1, with one of those games coming in the postseason. The first was against one of the worst offenses in baseball, the Pittsburgh Pirates. He looked sharp and went six innings while allowing zero runs. The second came in the previous series against the Detroit Tigers — a team that had the worst offense in the postseason. He looked wobbly, lasting four innings while allowing two earned runs.
The question today becomes, what are we going to get? And that question ranges from production, all the way to how many pitches the injury-riddled hurler is allowed. " (They've) seen me plenty over the years; most of the guys have at least," Cobb said of the Yankees. "I think the positive is that you've gone through all these adversities throughout the year, and you're sitting here and getting the ball in Game 1 of the ALCS."
That's one way to frame it. Another is if there's one game in this series you can afford to take a risk and allow several runs, it's probably Game 1. Even though this outing is littered with unpredictability, it is certainly reasonable to expect Cobb to struggle.
Cobb's hard-hit rate has followed an upward trend over the last three seasons, from 41% in 2022 to 43% in 2023 to now over 44%. All of those place him in the Bottom 20% of the sport. This is a lineup with some ridiculous power, and I expect them to take advantage. With four starts this year, he mostly has no valuable data, but his career progression points to this being an overall issue, and that's the vital point of this handicap.
On the other hand, Carlos Rodon has been average to poor across every major metric. He's a decent starting pitcher, but he's also very hittable. In this matchup, Cleveland should have a few advantages. Like his counterpart, he's also had issues with hard contact, ranking in the 30th percentile in hard-hit rate and even worse in barrel rate. In addition to that, Cleveland finishing seventh in slugging percentage against lefties should be helpful against an inconsistent southpaw.
Each pitcher has struggled this season, and both offenses fit the bill of teams that should be able to make them pay. Expect runs. I'd play this up to a flat 8.
Guardians vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5
Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 total bases
Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 total bases
Let's continue our process of fading two pitchers with two players to go over their total bases props.
The first is Jose Ramirez. He's been a little too quiet this postseason but did seem to get things going in the last two games against Detroit, with a homer in one game and an RBI in the other. He's going to see a heavy dosage of fastballs tonight, which he hits as well as any Guardian player, and he's also the best suited to attack Rodon's barrel issues.
The second is Gleyber Torres. There's not much data on what Yankees players do against the split-finger fastball because they don't see it much. However, it's Cobb's preferred pitch, and Torres has hit nearly .300 with a strong hard-hit rate against it in his career.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Yankees odds
Guardians vs Yankees live odds
Guardians vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Cleveland +135 | New York -160
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-160) | New York -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Guardians vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees have dominated this series recently with seven wins in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including two straight.
- Despite advancing to this stage, the Guardians are just 5-5 over their last 10 games, losing bettors just over a unit.
- The same is true for the Yankees, who have lost bettors almost two units with a 5-5 record over the last 10 games.
- So far, these two teams have gone a combined 7-3 to the Under in the postseason.
Guardians vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games at home (+14.65 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Yankees.
Guardians vs Yankees Game 1 info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, New York, NY |
| Date: | Monday, 10-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Alex Cobb (2-1, 2.76 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (16-9, 3.96 ERA) |
Guardians vs Yankees latest injuries
Guardians vs Yankees weather
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