The Los Angeles Dodgers have been losing ground atop the NL West standings. They’ll look to counteract that slippage as they begin a three-game series with the visiting Seattle Mariners.
My Mariners vs. Dodgers predictions are targeting Gavin Stone as he takes the mound for the home team. Find out why in my MLB picks below.
Mariners vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Gavin Stone Over 5.5 strikeouts (-104 at Caesars)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Seattle Mariners simply cannot avoid striking out this season. They have a 28.2% strikeout rate against right-handers, which is not only the highest number in the league but also 2.5% higher than the next closest team. Seattle stands alone in its penchant for the strikeout.
It’s been a similar story lately as their 29.4% K-rate in the last 15 days is also atop the leaderboard. With Ks up and down the lineup, opposing pitchers have had one field day after another.
Gavin Stone gets the nod for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He's put forth a solid season with a 3.63 ERA, 4.08 xERA, and 4.04 FIP across 121 1/3 IP. The Central Arkansas product isn’t known for being a high-strikeout pitcher but he can certainly take advantage of a favorable matchup.
Stone’s 18.7% K-rate is lower than what all of the major projection systems predict for him, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he bumped that number up over a larger sample. The 25-year-old has a respectable 12% swinging-strike rate in the Big Leagues and ranks in the 83rd percentile in chase rate (31.8%), so there are some reasons to expect improvement.
His most effective pitch has been his changeup, which he throws 26.4% of the time and generates a 35.5% whiff rate. Seattle has been the third-worst team against the changeup and has also posted negative value against Stone’s second and third-most utilized pitches, the fastball and the sinker.
Mariners vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Gavin Stone Over 5.5 strikeouts
Bryan Woo Under 4.5 strikeouts
Under 8.5
Bryan Woo gets the nod for Seattle and he’s been fantastic with a 2.06 ERA, 2.23 xERA, and 2.72 FIP. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in three of his last four starts and excels at limiting hard contact, ranking in the 99th percentile in barrel rate (1.8%) and the 91st percentile in hard-hit rate (31.8%).
Both young starting pitchers have been effective and both bullpens are solid, so I’m playing the Under. I’m also going Under on Woo’s strikeout prop as L .A. is a difficult team to punch out and the Cal Poly product’s 9.9% swinging-strike rate and 20.3% whiff rate don’t inspire much confidence.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mariners vs Dodgers odds
Mariners vs Dodgers live odds
Mariners vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Seattle +1.5 (-170) | Dodgers -1.5 (+145)
- Moneyline: Seattle +120 | Dodgers -140
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Mariners vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mariners are 4-1 in Bryan Woo’s last five starts whereas L.A. is 2-5 in Gavin Stone’s last seven.
- The Dodgers have routinely underperformed offensive expectations at home, hitting its team total Under in 30 of its last 51 games at Dodger Stadium.
- Seattle has covered the run line in just 24 of its last 60 away games.
Mariners vs Dodgers trend
Eight of the last 10 starting pitchers — excluding openers — to face the Mariners have recorded 6+ strikeouts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs Dodgers.
Mariners vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodgers Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Monday, 8-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | RSNW, SportsNet Los Angeles |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Bryan Woo (5-1, 2.06 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Gavin Stone (10-5, 3.64 ERA) |
Mariners vs Dodgers latest injuries
Mariners vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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