After splitting the first two of this mid-week series out west, the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers will do battle in the rubber game on Thursday night where two troubled youngsters will look for an encouraging start.
Cade Povich finally put forth a much-needed outing of quality a couple of weeks ago against the Red Sox but fell flat against the Astros last go around. Bobby Miller, meanwhile, is still searching for that dominant form he flashed a year ago and will be making his third start since being called back up to the Big Leagues.
My Orioles vs. Dodgers predictions are eyeing a moneyline wager. Find out which side to back in my MLB picks below.
Orioles vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Dodgers moneyline (-145 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I’m still not seeing it with Cade Povich. The left-hander likely profiles as a back-end rotation arm if he’s to reach his potential, and so far his rookie season has left a lot to be desired.
Povich is struggling to find the zone with a disastrous 11.2% walk rate, and even though he reigned those issues in when he shined against Boston, he went right back to work in allowing two walks over five frames to a Houston team that rarely draws free passes.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been the most patient team in baseball for three years running and now that they’ve been nursed back to full health, they've begun to turn it on lately at the plate as they work back towards the numbers they posted earlier in the year.
L.A. hasn’t been walking much lately, but we saw in Povich’s start against Houston that it hasn’t seemed to make a difference with the margin in which he’s missing his spots. The Dodgers have also posted a boisterous .201 Isolated Power over the last week, and Povich is fresh off allowing two home runs as his barrel rate continues to sit at a dangerous 10.5%.
The Dodgers are fourth in wRC+ against lefties even with a downturn in production during the middle of the year which was brought on by injuries, and you couldn’t ask for a better matchup considering Povich’s issues in finding the zone and the consistent quality contact against him.
Bobby Miller hasn’t necessarily been much better in his second Big League season, dealing with an injury and then a performance-related demotion. He seemed to return to form in his last outing, where he struck out nine Rays, and it’s really just been home runs that have been the greatest cause for concern.
Well, the Baltimore Orioles have been much worse against ground-ball arms like Miller, ranking 16th in OPS this year, and in the last two weeks, they’ve also hit a snag offensively with a 25th-ranked 84 wRC+. Strikeouts are beginning to be an issue, considering 23.1% of their plate appearances have ended in that fashion, and their powerful offense has mustered up a meek .160 ISO.
That should tip the scale in Miller’s favor and net the Dodgers a win.
Shohei Ohtani player prop
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 runs (-139 at Caesars)
My analysis
Shohei Ohtani has now walked just three times in the last two weeks, so even against a pitcher who’s dealing with control issues, I feel pretty confident that he’ll be swinging the bat.
Ohtani hasn’t hit lefties all that well this year, slashing just .269/.330/.473 with an OPS that’s 300 points lower than it is against right-handers, so the decision here is going to be a tough one when it comes to the best way to bet on the MVP hopeful.
The clear angle here is to take Ohtani to score a run. The Dodgers should have a field day at the plate, and as the leadoff man, Ohtani should not only have a shot to get an extra plate appearance but should reach base.
Despite suppressed numbers against lefties, his performance remains amicable, and he’s now come around to score in each of his last six games, totaling 10 runs in the process.
Orioles vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers moneyline
Shohei Ohtani to record a run
Teoscar Hernandez to hit a home run
Teoscar Hernandez is the premier lefty masher on the Dodgers, owning a team-high 153 wRC+ with a robust .286/.343/.579 slash line. He’s clubbed 10 home runs with a round-tripper in 7.3% of his plate appearances against southpaws as opposed to one in just 4.3% of his matchups with righties, and against fly-ball arms like Povich, he’s slugging .500 with 13 longballs in 227 plate appearances.
It’s always scary to pick someone who just homered in the game prior to do it again, but Hernandez hasn’t recorded a double in his last 14 games and as a result, has gone for 2+ total bases in just three of those contests. You’ll want to take a swing here if you’re going to bet on this team's best lefty bat, but I like this one a lot considering Povich has surrendered nine homers in 10 starts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Dodgers odds
Orioles vs Dodgers live odds
Orioles vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: Baltimore +1.5 (-155) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+130)
- Run line: Baltimore +135 | Los Angeles -160
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Orioles vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers opened up as -164 favorites on the moneyline but have since fallen to -148 after the pitching matchup was set in stone.
- L.A. has accounted for 74% of the moneyline bets at DraftKings but just 58% of the handle.
- The total was initially set at 9.5 runs but fell to 9 early Thursday morning with some steady action towards the Under.
- A firm 62% of bettors are going with the Over here, with 78% of the money headed that way.
Orioles vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers have gone Over the total in 40 of their last 71 games (+8.15 units / 10% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Dodgers.
Orioles vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, SportsNet Los Angeles |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Cade Povich (1-6, 6.10 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Bobby Miller (1-3, 7.49 ERA) |
Orioles vs Dodgers latest injuries
Orioles vs Dodgers weather
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