Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Cole Irvin has the daunting task of dealing with the potent New York Yankees offense today when the two AL East rivals meet in the rubber game of their three-game series.
Irvin has made only four quality starts this season, and hot, humid conditions at Yankee Stadium with winds blowing out to left field could become problematic for him.
Read on for my Orioles vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, June 20.
Orioles vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Cole Irvin Under 17.5 outs (-125 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Baltimore Orioles lefty Cole Irvin has the daunting task of slowing a robust New York Yankees offense.
Irvin has twirled his four-seam fastball, curveball, and slider into a solid season. Irvin is striking out a shade below seven with fewer than two walks per nine. Despite his 41% hard-hit rate and high fly-ball rate (40%), the southpaw has surrendered 0.79 home runs per nine.
One thing Irvin hasn’t done much is pitch deep into ball games. The Orioles lefty has only four quality starts this season and the hot weather will work against him vs. a Yankees offense with a BABIP 40 ticks higher than their .241 batting average.
Over the last 30 days, Irvin has seen his ERA regress (3.74), but that still hasn’t caught up to his 4.38 xERA. Opposing lumber is batting .262 against Irvin, but his .304 BABIP suggests the lefty could find trouble early.
Irvin has scattered 10 earned runs across his past five starts but has failed to pitch into the sixth frame in four of his last five. His short leash, paired with his advanced metrics, suggests Irving may be in for further regression. 59% of Irvin’s batted balls end in either line drives or fly balls; the Yankees .270 BABPIP and 21 bombs with 21 extra base hits against lefties will likely mean another short day for Irvin.
Orioles vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Cole Irvin Under 17.5 outs
Luis Gil Under 6.5 strikeouts
DJ LeMahieu 1+ hit
Irving not reaching the sixth inning is my best bet, but I also like Yankees starter Luis Gil to go Under his strikeout total and Yankees IF DJ LeMahieu to get a hit.
Gil has failed to clear 6.5 strikeouts in seven of his past 10 starts. The Orioles boast a 20% strikeout rate against righties, which will make it hard to get seven whiffs today.
LeMahieu has recorded at least one hit in five of his last 10. LeMahieu’s .309 lifetime batting average against southpaws and his small sample size against Irvin (4-for-7) could give the 35-year-old additional confidence today.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Yankees odds
Orioles vs Yankees live odds
Orioles vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 (-165) | New York -1.5 (+140)
- Moneyline: Baltimore +125 | New York -150
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Orioles vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- 90% of the bets and 94% of the cash at FanDuel is on the Yankees.
- Orioles moneyline markets opened as low as +110 but are trading at odds of +120 to +135.
- Over/Under markets are 8.5 across the board. Over 8.5 trades at +100 to -115 while Under 8.5 is trading odds of -105 to -120 with 90% of the wagers and 85% of the bets on the Under at BetMGM.
Orioles vs Yankees trend
Irvin has failed to clear 17.5 outs in five of his past seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees
Orioles vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, 6-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, YES |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Cole Irvin (6-3, 3.03 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (9-1, 2.03 ERA) |
Orioles vs Yankees latest injuries
Orioles vs Yankees weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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