If the Tennessee Volunteers have rather genuine national title hopes — and they do — it's because of their defense. Specifically, the Volunteers’ 3-point shooting defense is one of the absolute best in the country.
Or is it? The UCLA Bruins are not the ideal team to test that specific trait, but they will be forced to this evening.
My UCLA vs. Tennessee predictions and March Madness picks will focus on one particular Bruin and his shooting. Tip comes at 9:40 ET on Saturday, March 22.
Who will win UCLA vs Tennessee?
The SEC has largely delivered. All 14 teams were never going to make it out of the first round, simply from a logical perspective, but all six teams seeded higher than the six-line advanced to the second round. The top of the SEC held serve.
Gauging the SEC may be best done by focusing on its top end. The Tennessee Volunteers went 4-2 against that top end since Feb. 1, beating Auburn, Alabama, Texas A&M, and Florida, while losing at Kentucky and to Florida in the SEC Tournament Final.
In that same time span, the UCLA Bruins can claim a 1-3 record against comparable competition, beating only Michigan State back on Feb. 4. The Bruins lack recent results to inspire belief in an upset; they have not pulled an upset since Dec. 28, going 0-5 outright and 1-4 against the spread as underdogs in 2025.
Mick Cronin is a quality coach, but his 2021 Final Four run as a No. 11 seed overshadows the fact that he's overperformed his seed only one other time in 14 total NCAA Tournament appearances. Cronin has been more likely to fall short of his seed’s expectations (four times) than spring an upset.
There will be no upset from Westwood tonight.
UCLA vs Tennessee prediction
My best bet: Kobe Johnson Over 1.5 threes (+140 at bet365)
The mild skepticism around Tennessee’s 3-point shooting defense stems from its conference. In conference play, the SEC shot 33.7% from deep. For context: The national average this year was 33.8%.
Were SEC defenses that great or were there not that many solid shooters in the conference? Which came first, the chicken or the egg? Well, betting on Kobe Johnson to make at least two 3-pointers should be a good way to afford an egg.
He will absolutely shoot a handful of threes tonight. He attempted 3.5 per Big Ten game this season, making 38.4% of them as UCLA’s second-most prolific shooter behind Skyy Clark.
Clark shoots a touch more often (3.9 per game in Big Ten play) and makes just a touch fewer (37.0%); the two biggest reasons to back Johnson instead of Clark are his Over 1.5 prop pays +140 compared to Clark’s +120, and Johnson is more likely to create his own shot because he plays a greater share of minutes and stands three inches taller.
Those inches will be helpful against Tennessee’s defense, which insists that opponents chuck. The Vols forced 3-point attempts on 45.2% of shots this season, with foes making a woeful 28.7% of those. Again, though, that latter rate is skewed by the SEC’s overall bad shooting.
Forcing the threes is a sustainable trait. How opponents fare shooting them may improve.
That improvement could begin with Johnson. He's hit at least two 3-pointers in five of his last nine games, with eight of those games coming against Big Ten opponents that were not as committed to forcing 3-pointers as Tennessee is.
Frankly, anytime someone shooting better than 38% against quality competition is forced to shoot more often from deep, backing their plus-money prop makes sense. Some consideration was given to the 3+ milestone available at +425 at bet365.
UCLA vs Tennessee same-game parlay (SGP)
Kobe Johnson Over 1.5 threes
Tennessee moneyline
Over 132.5
Perhaps some Bruins fans will take umbrage to doubting Cronin in the NCAA Tournament, but in his last 10 appearances, he's outperformed his seed just once.
Sure, that 2021 run to the Final Four was impressive as a No. 11 seed, but it also required overtime simply to escape the first round. Furthermore, some of the 2020-21 season should probably be discounted, given its truncated and pandemic-impacted nature.
And to repeat an earlier thought, UCLA is 0-5 outright in its last five games as an underdog, which is hardly an encouraging thought, though the Over did cash in the last four such moments and by an average of 8.5 points.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UCLA vs Tennessee odds
UCLA vs Tennessee live odds
UCLA vs Tennessee opening odds
- Spread: UCLA +4.5 (-110) | Tennessee -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: UCLA +165 | Tennessee -200
- Over/Under: Over 133 (-110) | Under 133 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
UCLA vs Tennessee betting trend to know
After starting the season by cashing only nine Overs in its first 26 games, Tennessee has brought home the Over in seven of its last nine games, doing so by an average of 7.4 points even when including the pair of exceptions. Find more college basketball betting trends for UCLA vs. Tennessee.
How to watch UCLA vs Tennessee
| Region | Midwest |
| Location | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date | Saturday, 3-22-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS, truTV |
UCLA vs Tennessee key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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