The New York Mets will look to book a spot in the NLCS as they host the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 of the NLDS on Wednesday night.
I’ve put together my three best MLB player props for Game 4 below. That includes a look at both starting pitchers, as well as a wager on Mets superstar Francisco Lindor.
Keep reading for more Phillies vs. Mets predictions for Game 4 on Wednesday, October 9.
Phillies vs Mets NLDS Game 4 props
- Quintana Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-135 at DraftKings)
- Ranger Suarez Under 12.5 outs (-120 at BetRivers)
- Franciso Lindor Over 0.5 runs (+110 at BetRivers)
Picks made on 10-9 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Phillies vs Mets props
Prop bet #1: Jose Quintana Under 2.5 earned runs allowed
After an injury to Kodai Senga threatened to leave the New York Mets without depth in their starting rotation, several players stepped up to fill the gap. One of the pitchers who became a critical cog for New York is Wednesday’s starter Jose Quintana, who gave the Mets 170 1/3 innings of work while throwing to a solid 3.75 ERA.
Quintana has been especially good for New York down the stretch. Over his last five starts — including his outing in the Wild Card Series against the Brewers — Quintana has allowed just two runs over 31 innings, good for a 0.58 ERA.
The Philadelphia Phillies have seen Quintana three times this year but haven’t found a whole lot of success. They’ve scored just five runs in 16 innings, recording 13 hits but never leaving the yard against the lefty. That includes one battle down the stretch in which Quintana threw seven innings of three-hit shutout ball in what ended up being an 11-3 Mets win.
The Phillies have been struggling offensively throughout the series, having scored just 11 runs through three games — seven of which came in a single outburst in Game 2. Combine that with Quintana’s recent success and his track record against Philadelphia, and my MLB picks like the Mets starter to stay Under this number tonight.
Prop bet #2: Ranger Suarez Under 12.5 outs
Phillies starter Ranger Suarez hasn’t given the team much length this season, averaging 5.57 innings per start, but that number has come down significantly in recent starts. Since returning from lower back soreness in late August, Suarez has made seven starts, pitching a total of 31 1/3 innings — or 4.48 innings per start.
It isn’t just the lack of length that should have Phillies fans concerned, however. In those seven starts, Suarez has thrown to a 5.74 ERA, allowing five homers and 40 hits while also walking 14 batters. Philadelphia has gone just 3-4 in those seven starts, including losing each of the last three times he’s taken the mound.
Even still, though numbers would suggest that Suarez has a chance of hitting the Over on his outs recorded prop bet, which only requires him to get one out in the fifth inning. The problem is that the Phillies find themselves in a must-win situation, as they face elimination with a Game 4 loss tonight.
Philadelphia will be taking the tournament approach to pitching in this game, as they can’t afford to let things get out of control early. There’s a good chance the Mets will do some damage against Suarez, and Phillies manager Rob Thomson won’t hesitate to change pitchers if it gives him a better chance to win.
Prop bet #3: Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 runs
Francisco Lindor is the engine that powers the Mets offense. Out of the leadoff role, Lindor has hit .303 with a .926 OPS this season, and moving him to the top of the lineup coincided with New York becoming one of the best offensive teams in the majors — a position they’ve held throughout the remainder of the year.
While he’s unlikely to win the NL MVP, Lindor has been absolutely dynamic down the stretch and is playing well in the postseason. The Mets have played six games in the playoffs, and Lindor has already scored five runs, recording at least one run in four different games.
Even when he’s not hitting, Lindor has been getting on base during the playoffs. In six postseason games for New York, he's put up a .379 on-base percentage. With the rest of the lineup humming behind him, there’s every opportunity for him to score.
I talked earlier about Suarez’s recent struggles. Lindor is poised to take advantage of that and set the table for Mark Vientos, Brandon Nimmo, and Pete Alonso, all of whom are capable of driving the ball against a struggling lefty.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
