The Philadelphia Phillies have gone from England to New England for a matchup against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on June 11.
Zack Wheeler will be handed the ball and tasked with slowing down Boston, but my Phillies vs. Red Sox predictions expect him to hand out more free passes than intended. Find out why in my MLB picks below.
Phillies vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Zack Wheeler Over 1.5 walks allowed (-115 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Zack Wheeler has been the ace of the staff since joining the Philadelphia Phillies in 2020. He’s once again off to a great start this year — as are most of the Phillies’ starting pitchers — but it’s Wheeler on the mound tonight, and we’re fading him in a way.
Wheeler consistently goes deep into games with six starts of at least seven innings, along with four six-inning outings. However, that also sets up Wheeler to hand out a few free passes.
The veteran RHP started off the year with just two walks in his first three starts, but he’s been shakier with his command since then. Wheeler has issued 24 walks across 61.2 innings in his last 10 appearances — including 13 walks in his last five starts.
In fact, not only has Wheeler allowed more than two walks in each of his last five starts, he’s issued three free passes in three of those outings. That includes his last start in Milwaukee. The Boston Red Sox sit in the middle of the pack in terms of walks per game at 3.11, so there’s not much to worry about there.
Phillies vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Zack Wheeler 2+ walks
Wheeler 6+ strikeouts
Phillies moneyline
I'm keeping this same-game parlay Wheeler-focused by adding him to have at least six strikeouts along with my best bet of two-plus walks. His strikeout line is set a bit high at 6.5, but I'm playing it safer here with six-plus strikeouts — a mark he's hit in nine of his 13 starts.
I'm closing out the parlay with the Phillies to win this one. The Red Sox have been struggling as of late and just split against the lowly White Sox. Philadelphia should get it done.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Red Sox odds
Phillies vs Red Sox live odds
Phillies vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+100) | Boston +1.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -165 | Boston +140
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Phillies vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Philadelphia Phillies odds are between -160 and -170 after opening at that lower number.
- The Boston Red Sox are as high as +145 home underdogs after opening around +135.
- The total has moved down from 8.5 at opening to a flat eight at most books.
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Phillies vs Red Sox trend
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the moneyline in 37 of their last 49 games (+18.45 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Red Sox
Phillies vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Philadelphia, NESN |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Zack Wheeler (7-3, 2.23 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Kutter Crawford (2-5, 3.51 ERA) |
Phillies vs Red Sox latest injuries
Phillies vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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