The Philadelphia Phillies are heavy favorites to win the finale of their three-game interleague series against the Minnesota Twins.
Aaron Nola will make the start, and my Phillies vs. Twins predictions like his strikeout prowess to win out this afternoon.
Nola has seen a rise in velocity on his four-seam heater, and these MLB picks believe he'll have the upper hand on Wednesday, July 24.
Phillies vs Twins prediction
My best bet
Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts (+126 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies look for their first away series win since July 3, and they’ve got a good chance to accomplish this with righty Aaron Nola on the bump.
Nola has been throwing well this season. His knuckle-curve and four-seam fastball combo has been especially lethal vs. lefties, and he could see as many as seven left-handed bats strolling out of the home dugout.
Nola is coming off a tough start at Pittsburgh, but that was his first start off the All-Star break, and eight days of rest may have been too much. He whiffed four Pirates across five frames but struck out at least eight in each of his three previous starts, and that’s the Nola I expect to see today.
According to The BAT, Nola has seen an uptick in velocity on the heater across his past three starts. Nola’s four-seamer is popping, and he’s seen a 25% strikeout rate against lefties on the pitch, but the added velo has made his favored knuckle curve even deadlier, which will be a problem for the Minnesota Twins offense.
Nola should have a big day against the Twinkies. The Twins boast an above-average 21% strikeout rate against righties, and they’ve already whiffed 19 times during this series. Minnesota’s team strikeout rate has risen to 23% across the last 14 days, which should further open the door for the veteran righty, and his exceptional command, to rack up a bunch of Ks.
If Nola pitches into the sixth inning, and I believe he will, he will clear his strikeout prop number today.
Phillies vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts
Bryce Harper Over 0.5 RBI
Nola should get the whiffs, and we’ll also ride the hot bat of Bryce Harper for the second leg.
Harper is the straw that stirs Philly's drink. He’s riding a five-game hitting streak and has recorded at least one RBI in three of his last four. He’ll meet a collection of Twins relievers with 21 hits and 17 earned runs allowed across their past six games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Twins odds
Phillies vs Twins live odds
Phillies vs Twins opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+110) | Minnesota +1.5 (-130)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -150 | Minnesota +125
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Phillies vs Twins spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Phillies opened as low as -150, but their ML markets are trading odds from -148 to -156 with DraftKings reporting 96% of the bets, and 94% of the money on Philly.
- Twins ML markets are reporting markets at +124 to +132 with 14% of the wagers and 2% of the cash at FanDuel on Minnesota.
- Over/Under markets have seen some trading from the 8.0 run opener. Over 8.0 (-112) is the best Over market while one US betting market reports Under 8.5 (-120).
Bet on baseball at FanDuel, Get MLB.TV free!
Opt-in place a bet of $5+ on any MLB market until July 30 — and get a free subscription to MLB.TV until September 1!
FanDuel T&Cs
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).
Phillies vs Twins trend
Aaron Nola has 7+ strikeouts in three of his last four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Twins.
Tailing our best bet from the Keystone State? Pennsylvania bet365 bonus code "CVRSBONUS" nets new bettors $150 in bonus bets!
Phillies vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC10, BSN |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Aaron Nola (11-4, 3.54 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Steven Okert (3-1, 4.40 ERA) |
Phillies vs Twins latest injuries
Phillies vs Twins weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
