The Minnesota Twins have genuine playoff hopes, but they shouldn’t, and the Philadelphia Phillies are likely to remind the Twins of that to start this week.
At the very least, any Minnesota faith should be tempered, which is exactly what my free MLB picks will due in these Phillies vs. Twins predictions for Monday, July 22.
Phillies vs Twins prediction
My best bet
Twins +0.5 first five (-145 at Caesars)
My analysis
Doubt the Minnesota Twins. Do it without hesitation and scoff at them as anything resembling serious contenders.
Only six teams have better records than the Twins, teams Minnesota has gone 2-19 against this season — losing the last 14 games. When facing teams with a current winning percentage of .551 or worse, the Twins are 52-25, a .675 winning percentage.
Doing well against those teams should be forgotten once we recognize this failure against more quality competition. Enter the Philadelphia Phillies, the NL East leaders with a winning percentage of .636. Doubt the Twins.
But why not doubt them through the first five innings? Because there is an overriding doubt in Philadelphia starting LHP Ranger Suarez.
In his last three starts, Suarez has not lasted more than six innings — sporting an ERA of 8.6 — and his WHIP has skyrocketed to 1.85. Minnesota should find some success against Suarez.
The Twins are just too suspect to trust further than five innings tonight.
Phillies vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Twins +0.5 first five innings
Phillies moneyline
Ranger Suarez Over 4.5 strikeouts
Counterintuitive same-game parlays certainly create undue value. Betting on Minnesota not to be losing after five innings but then losing the game is obviously a pair of bets that run against each other, but that’s the point.
Doubting both the Twins and Suarez yields significant value, and both doubts are valid.
Part of Suarez’s struggle is he;s striking out too many batters. He has 13 strikeouts in his last two games, outs that simply raise his pitch count, breaking 90 pitches in each of his last three games despite never throwing more than six innings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Twins odds
Phillies vs Twins live odds
Phillies vs Twins opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+120) | Minnesota +1.5 (-144)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -136 | Minnesota +116
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-110) | Under 8.0 (-110)
Phillies vs Twins spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Twins’ struggles are known enough the market opened with the Phillies at only +120 on the -1.5 run line. But the market moved toward Minnesota for once, that run line rising to +146 through Monday morning.
- In his last five starts, Twins’ starting righthander Bailey Ober has given up seven total runs in the first five innings, a 1.8 ERA.
- The total hit the market at 9.0 and never moved, though some juice came in on the Over.
Phillies vs Twins trend
Minnesota is 2-5 on the moneyline in its last seven games despite being favored in five of those, with five of those games coming against teams below .500. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Twins
Phillies vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Monday, 7-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Philadelphia, Bally Sports North |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Ranger Suarez (10-4, 2.76 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Bailey Ober (8-5, 4.14 ERA) |
Phillies vs Twins latest injuries
Phillies vs Twins weather
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