Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Targeting Profar Against Corbin

Prop bet #1: Riley Greene Over 0.5 RBI

The breakout season for the Detroit Tigers still feels like it’s at least another year away but there's no denying this team has some cornerstone pieces to build around. That includes outfielder Riley Greene.

Following an up-and-down 2023, the former Tigers top prospect appears to be unlocking his potential in 2024, hitting .261 with a .852 OPS. His 15 home runs this season are one away from matching the 16 he had previously in his career while his 40 RBI are two off his career high.

Plus, Greene is raking right now. The 23-year-old centerfielder has hits in 12 of his last 13 games, good for a .367 batting average and a 1.202 OPS. That includes four home runs and 16 RBI and I like his chance to keep that going in tonight’s matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Greene will dig in against Phillies starter Aaron Nola, who has been undoubtedly solid this season with a 3.62 expected ERA. However, the veteran right-hander is allowing opponents to hit for a .252 expected batting average, which ranks well below league average.

He's also in a mini-slump, surrendering 11 runs on 15 hits over his last two starts. Greene, who's hitting .282 with a .917 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers this season, has driven in a run in seven of his last 13 games. On top of the juicy +250 price, Covers Projections has this as a five-star play. 

Riley Greene prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+250 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Freddy Peralta Over 6.5 strikeouts

This season has been a bit of a roller coaster for Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta but through all the ups and downs, one thing has remained — strikeouts. I’m betting he keeps racking up the Ks in tonight’s game against the Texas Rangers.

Peralta enters tonight with a 4.06 ERA but he’s been better than that number, with an expected ERA sitting at 3.75 while limiting opponents to a .228 expected batting average. And like I said, the strikeouts have been there. The 28-year-old is striking out 31% of the batters he’s faced this season, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among MLB pitchers.

The matchup against the Rangers is an interesting one. Texas rode its offense to its first-ever World Series title but it feels like a good portion of this lineup has regressed, particularly when up against right-handed pitchers. The Rangers’ once-potent lineup ranks 20th in batting average and OPS, and 24th in wRC+ vs. righties this season. While they don’t strike out a ton, they have the ninth-highest swing rate and the eighth-lowest barrel rate in baseball.

Their inability to make consistent contact against righties means Peralta has a great opportunity to pitch deep into this ball game and punch out a lot of batters. Peralta's eclipsed this number in five of his last eight starts and 10 times overall this season. The plus-money odds had me quickly firing on the Over.

Freddy Peralta prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (+130 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Jurickson Profar Over 1.5 total bases

Embattled Washington Nationals starter Patrick Corbin has been comically bad for so long now that's sucked all the value out of fading him directly. Luckily, we can usually target at least one opposing player to take advantage of the fact that Corbin remains one of baseball's worst starters. Today, that leads us to San Diego Padres outfielder Jurickson Profar.

But first, a deeper dive into what Corbin calls pitching. The southpaw owns an ugly 6.66 expected ERA while surrendering a .322 expected batting average. Both of those are in the Bottom 1% of the league. Additionally, his average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage are both in the Bottom 5% while his 15.2% strikeout rate ranks in the ninth percentile. He's doing nothing well in terms of getting batters out and Profar has been a tough out all season long.

The 31-year-old comes into this matchup hitting .319 with a .896 OPS, 10 home runs, and 48 RBI. He’s also been a total bases machine lately, hitting .300 over his last 14 games with six extra-base hits. That's helped him go Over 1.5 total bases seven times over that stretch, including the last three in a row.

Profar also has solid numbers against Corbin (who doesn’t?), going 3-for-7 with a double in his career against him. That’s good for a .384 xBA and a .514 xSLG. At this price, there’s definitely value in this play. 

Jurickson Profar prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at bet365)