The Toronto Blue Jays will try to even up their series with the rival Tampa Bay Rays after dropping yesterday’s opener and I like their odds to get off to a good start. Yariel Rodriguez gets the ball for the Blue Jays and he’s been rounding into form, while Rays starter Zach Eflin is in a bit of a slump.
Rays vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays first five innings moneyline (-109 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Things have not gone as expected for the Toronto Blue Jays this season. They enter tonight's affair 10 games below .500 and 10 games out of a postseason spot after dropping yesterday’s opener to the Tampa Bay Rays. Big changes are likely coming to this team, but one guy likely to still be around next season is tonight’s starter Yariel Rodriguez.
The Blue Jays signed Rodriguez out of Cuba this offseason, and after a rocky start to the season which included some injuries, it looks like the right-hander is settling in as a Big League pitcher.
The 27-year-old has made three starts this month and is pitching to a 1.62 ERA while limiting opponents to a .130 batting average. He's racked up 19 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings and now gets a good matchup against the Rays.
It hasn’t been a great season for the Rays either, sitting at 51-50, and producing runs has been arguably the biggest issue. Only the Mariners and White Sox have scored fewer runs than the Rays. Right-handers in particular have been a problem. Tampa Bay ranks 28th in batting average, 26th in OPS, and 21st in wRC+ when facing righties this season.
Meanwhile, the Rays counter Rodriguez with a right-hander of their own in Zach Eflin. The veteran has been solid since joining the Rays last season but he's hit a bit of a slump, pitching to a 5.39 ERA and surrendering a .269 average over his last three starts.
The Blue Jays also have his number this season. Toronto has tagged Eflin for 10 earned runs on 15 hits in 11 2/3 innings over two starts. Current Jays batters have combined for a .265 expected batting average and a .417 expected slugging, with guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer doing a ton of damage.
Once again, you can’t trust the Blue Jays with a full-game moneyline bet thanks to that atrocious bullpen but I believe there's some value with them on the first-five moneyline tonight.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+150 at PROLINE+)
If the Toronto Blue Jays don’t extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr., fire this entire franchise into the sun.
The All-Star first baseman has picked up right where he left off in the first half. Vladdy has come out of the break going 6-15 (.400) with three home runs and five RBI, and has been one of the best hitters in baseball for almost three months now.
He's hitting .324 with a .926 OPS, 14 home runs, and 49 RBI since May 5 and he gets a juicy matchup against Rays starter Zach Eflin. He's 4-for-13 with a double and a dinger in his career against Eflin, good for a .331 xBA and a .664 xSLG.
He's driven at least one run in six of his last eight games and three of four since the All-Star break. At +150, there's value in him to drive in another tonight and our Covers Prop Projections have this as a five-star play.
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Rays vs Blue Jays odds
Rays vs Blue Jays live odds
Rays vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Tampa Bay -1.5 +130 | Toronto +1.5 -155
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay -115 | Toronto -105
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Rays vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as slight -105 home underdogs. There hasn't been much early action but it has come on the Rays, moving the line to Toronto +100.
- The Rays have won five of the eight meetings against the Blue Jays this season but are just 1-1 in the games Zach Eflin started.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and early bettors were quick to hit the Under, moving the number to an even 8 as of Wednesday afternoon.
- The Over/Under is 4-4 in the eight matchups between these AL East rivals this season.
Rays vs Blue Jays trend
The Rays have only cashed the first-five moneyline in 28 of their last 84 games for -23.40 units and a -22% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays
Rays vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, BSN |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Zach Eflin (5-7, 4.14 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yariel Rodriguez (1-3, 3.78 ERA) |
Rays vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Rays vs Blue Jays weather
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