The New York Yankees will look to escape with a split of a four-game series as they host the Tampa Bay Rays this afternoon.
The Rays have won the last two games in a row, but the Yankees remain the favorites. My Rays vs. Yankees predictions expect plenty of runs whichever way the game goes.
Tampa Bay has been hitting enough to match New York’s power this weekend, and I’ll look further into these bats with my MLB picks for Monday, July 22.
Rays vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The New York Yankees have been one of the most productive offenses in baseball this year, averaging 4.95 runs per game on the season. Aaron Judge (.307, 34 HR, 1.107 OPS) is having a season for the ages, but Juan Soto (.303, 23 HR, 1.003 OPS) has been nearly as productive, and that 1-2 punch has been far too much for most opposing pitchers to deal with.
Yet, the Tampa Bay Rays offense has shown out in this series. The Rays have hit eight home runs over the last two games, outscoring the Yankees 15-5, allowing Tampa Bay to take advantage of a struggling New York team that is 9-20 in its last 29 games.
Today, both offenses will have an excellent chance of putting up impressive numbers in what could be a slugfest.
New York will start Carlos Rodon, who has been nothing short of a disappointment since joining the Yankees in 2023. After two consecutive outstanding seasons, Rodon has gone 12-15 with a 5.46 ERA in 34 starts with the Yankees. The lefty has surrendered an inordinate amount of home runs and lost his status as one of the league’s premier strikeout pitchers in the process.
Rodon has been even worse as of late, going 0-5 with a 9.67 ERA over his last six starts. Yet it’s arguable that the Yankees still have the best of today's pitching matchup, as they’ll face off against Zack Littell.
Littell leads the American League in one unfortunate category, having allowed a league-high 120 hits in just 101.1 innings of work. His 1.37 WHIP doesn’t inspire much confidence, particularly since it seems to come mainly on the back of hard contact. And like Rodon, Littell has been especially poor recently, pitching to a 6.00 ERA and allowing a .913 OPS to opposing hitters in his last six starts.
With the star power in the Yankees lineup and the recent resurgence from Tampa Bay’s offense, it’s hard to see either pitcher making it deep into today’s game, and certainly not without allowing plenty of damage along the way.
Rays vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Yankees moneyline
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
This should be a high-scoring game, and that plays right into the hands of a powerful Yankees offense. As such, I’m tying the Over to a Yankees victory, as New York is a clear favorite to walk away with the win this afternoon.
For my third leg, I’m taking Soto to go Over his prop of 1.5 total bases. Soto has been somewhat overshadowed by Judge, but his props are much more reasonable — Judge’s Over/Under is a much tougher 2.5 bases — making him a better target. Soto has gotten at least two total bases in six of his last seven games and should continue that streak this afternoon opposite Littelle.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rays vs Yankees odds
Rays vs Yankees live odds
Rays vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-55)| New York -1.5 (+130)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +130 | New York -155
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Rays vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees are up about 2.5 units on the moneyline this year, while the Rays have dropped 5.5 bets for backers on the season.
- New York has gone 11-9 in Rodon’s starts this year. Tampa Bay has a 9-10 record when Littell has pitched.
- The Over holds a 52-44 advantage in Yankees games and has gone an ever 47-47 in Rays games.
- New York games have averaged 8.88 runs per game in 2024, with Tampa Bay contests averaging a total of 8.51 runs on the season.
Rays vs Yankees trend
The Over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between the Rays and the Yankees. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees
Rays vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Monday, 7-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, YES |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Zack Littell (3-6, 4.26 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (9-7, 4.63 ERA) |
Rays vs Yankees latest injuries
Rays vs Yankees weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
