A thrilling interleague series between the Boston Red Sox (53-43) and Los Angeles Dodgers (57-41) moves on with Game 2 on tap for Saturday night.
Freddie Freeman stole the show in Friday’s opener, bonking an eighth-inning grand slam, and my Red Sox vs. Dodgers prediction sees him staying hot tonight.
Check out why I’m backing Freeman with my MLB picks for Saturday, July 20.
Red Sox vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
When the Boston Red Sox front office handed Brayan Bello a six-year, $55 million contract this offseason, they probably expected better than the 5.32 ERA he’d produce through his next 17 starts. Alas, the 25-year-old has regressed a bit this season and will need to turn things around before the contract becomes a worry.
He’s allowing plenty of loud contact, ranking in the 25th percentile in hard-hit rate (41.8%) with a mediocre 8.1% barrel rate. His 4.64 xERA and 4.61 FIP are a tad better than his actual ERA but still don’t inspire confidence.
Bello throws his sinker more than any other pitch (40.2%) but it’s been remarkably ineffective. Opponents are feasting upon the offering to the tune of a .364 BA and .536 SLG.
He throws only two other pitches, and his slider has also been a minus (.291 BA, .465 SLG). It’s hard to find consistent success with only one effective pitch, and Bello throws his changeup just 29% of the time — not enough to offset his other offerings.
Bello has worrisome splits as left-handed batters have posted a .296 BA and 23 home runs against him since 2022. Isolating for this season on the road, he’s posted a 5.35 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while allowing 1.9 home runs per nine innings against lefties.
I’m choosing to fade Bello with one of the star Los Angeles Dodgers lefty bats — Freddie Freeman. He’s positively obliterated RHP this season with a 169 wRC+, .408 wOBA, and .225 ISO.
Combine that with the fact that he’s particularly deadly at home (181 wRC+, .427 wOBA, .256 ISO) and I like his odds of getting the best of this matchup.
The weather also favors hitting, as it’ll be hot with winds of 9.2 mph blowing out to right field.
Red Sox vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases
Tyler O’Neill Over 1.5 total bases
Justin Wrobleski Over 5.5 strikeouts
Rookie Justin Wrobleski makes his third start for the Dodgers. The projection systems think he’ll have an ERA in the mid-to-high 4.00s with a FIP in a similar range, and he’s been hit hard through his first two appearances.
The reason to be bullish on the Oklahoma State product in this matchup is that Boston has the league’s highest K rate against LHP (29.4%) — three and a half percentage points clear of the next-worst team. The Red Sox have been dreadful against southpaws lately with a 68 wRC+ (29th), .270 wOBA (29th), and 31.8% K rate (30th) since June 22.
One of the only Boston hitters with strong numbers against LHP is Tyler O’Neill, who has a blistering 182 wRC+ against them.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Dodgers odds
Red Sox vs Dodgers live odds
Red Sox vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Boston -1.5 (-180) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Boston +120 | Los Angeles -140
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)
Red Sox vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Boston hasn’t had much success against LHP all year, going 12-15 when facing a LHP starting pitcher.
- L.A. has routinely underperformed expectations at home as of late, cashing its team total Under in 19 of its last 26 home games.
- Boston is on a run to the Under, going 0-6 O/U in its last six games.
Red Sox vs Dodgers trend
Freddie Freeman has recorded 2+ total bases in six of his last eight home games against a RHP starting pitcher. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Dodgers
Red Sox vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 7-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Brayan Bello (10-5, 5.32 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Justin Wrobleski (0-1, 6.30 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Dodgers latest injuries
Red Sox vs Dodgers weather
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