Red Sox vs Mets Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Mets have won five games in a row and with a reliable David Peterson taking the mound against a quiet Red Sox offense, we love their chances of making it six.

Ryan Gilbert - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Ryan Gilbert • Betting Analyst
Sep 3, 2024 • 12:02 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Francisco Lindor New York Mets MLB
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The New York Mets are looking to stay hot as they host the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night at Citi Field. New York took the first game of the series 4-1 for its fifth straight win and our Red Sox vs. Mets expect that streak to continue tonight.

Find out why in our MLB picks below. 

Red Sox vs Mets prediction

My best bet
Mets moneyline (-134 at FanDuel)

My analysis
David Peterson may not be viewed as an ace around the league but he’s been just that for the New York Mets. The southpaw is 8-1 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 16 starts this season.

He’s giving the Mets a chance to win every time he’s on the mound with his worst outings of the year still allowing just four earned runs in five innings. Outside of two such starts, Peterson has held the opposition to two or fewer earned runs in his other 14 starts.

The Mets have rewarded Peterson with eight wins in his 16 starts, and the team is 13-3 in those games started by the left-hander. He had a particularly good month of August, going 3-0 with eight ER in 38 2/3 IP (1.86 ERA) across six starts — the Mets won his last five outings.

On the flip side, Kutter Crawford hasn’t quite cut it for the Boston Red Sox. After a strong first half (6-7, 3.00 ERA), Crawford has worn down in the second half with a 7.24 ERA. He's nearly allowed as many ER in the second half (33 in 41 IP) as he did in the first half (38 ER in 114 IP).

The right-hander has settled in recently with three earned runs or fewer in three straight starts, but Boston’s offense hasn’t been much help as Crawford was saddled with the loss in all three outings. Boston’s bats are struggling right now with just three runs scored in its last three games and 10 runs in its last five contests — seven came in one game against the Tigers.

Peterson is celebrating his 29th birthday on Tuesday and there’s a good chance he’ll be celebrating his ninth win of the season, too.

Red Sox vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)

Mets moneyline

Francisco Lindor 1+ hits

Under 7.5

Francisco Lindor has been setting the table for the Mets out of the leadoff spot. He’s riding a 13-game hitting streak with 11 extra-base hits. He has a hit in 29 of 31 games since July 31 while batting .328 over that span.

Neither team is hitting the ball well right now with the Mets topping out at a maximum of five runs in their last six games. The Red Sox have scored more than one run in just one of their last five contests.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Red Sox vs Mets odds

Red Sox vs Mets live odds

Red Sox vs Mets opening odds

  • Moneyline: Boston +1.5 (-200) | New York -1.5 (+165)
  • Run line: Boston +105 | New York -130
  • Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Red Sox vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis

  • The Mets opened at -126 but have been bet up to between -138 and -150 as of Tuesday morning.

  • In turn, the Red Sox are as high as +125 underdogs after opening at +108.

  • The total opened at 8 but has moved down to 7.5 at some books.

Red Sox vs Mets trend

The Mets have cashed the moneyline in 50 of their last 79 games (+15.30 units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Mets.

Red Sox vs Mets game info

Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY
Date: Tuesday, 9-3-2024
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: TBS
Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford
(8-12, 4.12 ERA)
Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson
(8-1, 2.83 ERA)

Red Sox vs Mets latest injuries

Red Sox vs Mets weather

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Ryan Gilbert - Covers
Betting Analyst

Ryan Gilbert brings the passion and pain of being a Philadelphia sports fan. After graduating from Monmouth University with a finance degree, he now uses his statistical background to find inefficiencies in betting markets. With past stops at NHL.com, NBC Sports, and currently at Covers, Ryan's hot picks blend well with the cold ice of a hockey rink.

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