Bryce Harper smacked three home runs Tuesday night to lift the Philadelphia Phillies to a 9-4 victory over the Cincinnati Reds.
Phillies ace Zack Wheeler takes the hill as a huge MLB odds favorite to win the rubber match of their three-game series, but Reds starter Frankie Montas might have other ideas for today’s outcome.
Can Wheeler hold off Cincy and win this series? Join me as I break this one down with my MLB picks for the Reds vs. Phillies on Wednesday, April 3.
Reds vs Phillies odds
Reds vs Phillies predictions
Philadelphia Phillies hurler Zack Wheeler threw six innings of shutout ball in the home opener, but his team couldn’t score any runs. Wheeler ended up with a no-decision, and Philadelphia lost at home to the Braves.
The 10-year vet still has the good stuff with excellent command, keeps the ball down in the zone, and struck out five Atlanta hitters over six frames. That’s a couple of strikeouts below his career 9.14 punchouts per nine, but the Cincinnati Reds' 24% K rate may help improve those numbers today.
Cincinnati starter Frankie Montas is coming off a strong start over the Nationals. After starring for the Athletics, he’s had a couple of injury-filled seasons with the Yankees but struck out four Nats over six innings, and the Reds won the game.
The respective pitchers will certainly have an edge today as the forecast calls for rain throughout the day, making it difficult to grip and hit the baseball.
The early results for each offense also haven’t been good: both clubs have high strikeout rates, and although Philly scored nine runs last night, its -11-run differential through five games paints a different portrait than last night’s result.
Wheeler is a stud at home facing a decent-hitting Cincinnati side and performance against the Braves on opening day was solid. He fanned 11.2 per nine at home last April and could be in for a big game.
Finally, last night's result was fueled by errors and Harper's heroics. Today's starters are coming off strong outings with past success against the strikeout-prone lumber they’ll face today, which gives both hurlers an edge. It will be an ugly day, with runs coming at a premium and ending Under the total.
My best bet: Under 7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Reds vs Phillies same-game parlay
As you can see, I’m backing the Phillies today in a low-scoring game.
It’s going to be an ugly day dominated by the pitchers. The current collection of Phillies is 15-for-50 lifetime against Montas, and he’s coming off a confidence-building away start.
Wheeler is 43-25 with the Phillies, has a good record against these Reds, and should keep Cincinnati off the scoreboard. Phillies OF Nick Castellanos is 3-for-12 lifetime against Montas and saw his three-game hitting streak broken Tuesday. He’ll get something going today and cash this ticket.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Reds vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Philadelphia opened as a large favorite (-180), and money came in on it, likely as a response to Tuesday’s win. The U.S. markets currently trade as high as -192
- The game total hasn’t budged off its 7.5 opener, with prices ranging from -110 to -115
- The Phillies are 5-0 in Wheelers' last 5 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200
Trend to know
The Phillies are 4-0 in Wheelers' last four starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Phillies
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Reds vs Phillies game info
Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
Date: | Wednesday, April 3, 2024 |
First pitch: | 1:05 p.m. ET |
TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Frankie Montas (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Reds' probable starter Frankie Montas had a tough pair of injury-plagued seasons with the Yankees but opened his season with a gem. He scattered four hits over six innings of shutout ball for his new team against Washington.
Zack Wheeler (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Wheeler pitched shutout ball with six punchouts through six innings in the Phillies home opener against the Braves. He has struck out 200 or more in two of his previous three seasons.