Reds vs Phillies Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Wheeler Shines Despite Little Run Support

The Phillies' offense looked sharp last night on the back of Harper's three home runs, but aside from that they haven't looked great. With Wheeler taking the mound for them plus their shaky offense, our MLB picks expect a low-scoring affair.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Apr 3, 2024 • 09:07 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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ZacK Wheeler Philadelphia Phillies MLB
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Bryce Harper smacked three home runs Tuesday night to lift the Philadelphia Phillies to a 9-4 victory over the Cincinnati Reds.

Phillies ace Zack Wheeler takes the hill as a huge MLB odds favorite to win the rubber match of their three-game series, but Reds starter Frankie Montas might have other ideas for today’s outcome.

Can Wheeler hold off Cincy and win this series? Join me as I break this one down with my MLB picks for the Reds vs. Phillies on Wednesday, April 3. 

Reds vs Phillies odds

Reds vs Phillies predictions

Philadelphia Phillies hurler Zack Wheeler threw six innings of shutout ball in the home opener, but his team couldn’t score any runs. Wheeler ended up with a no-decision, and Philadelphia lost at home to the Braves.

The 10-year vet still has the good stuff with excellent command, keeps the ball down in the zone, and struck out five Atlanta hitters over six frames. That’s a couple of strikeouts below his career 9.14 punchouts per nine, but the Cincinnati Reds' 24% K rate may help improve those numbers today.

Cincinnati starter Frankie Montas is coming off a strong start over the Nationals. After starring for the Athletics, he’s had a couple of injury-filled seasons with the Yankees but struck out four Nats over six innings, and the Reds won the game.

The respective pitchers will certainly have an edge today as the forecast calls for rain throughout the day, making it difficult to grip and hit the baseball.

The early results for each offense also haven’t been good: both clubs have high strikeout rates, and although Philly scored nine runs last night, its -11-run differential through five games paints a different portrait than last night’s result.

Wheeler is a stud at home facing a decent-hitting Cincinnati side and performance against the Braves on opening day was solid. He fanned 11.2 per nine at home last April and could be in for a big game.

Finally, last night's result was fueled by errors and Harper's heroics. Today's starters are coming off strong outings with past success against the strikeout-prone lumber they’ll face today, which gives both hurlers an edge. It will be an ugly day, with runs coming at a premium and ending Under the total.

My best bet: Under 7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Reds vs Phillies same-game parlay

Under 7.5

Phillies moneyline

Nick Castellanos Over 0.5 hits

As you can see, I’m backing the Phillies today in a low-scoring game.

It’s going to be an ugly day dominated by the pitchers. The current collection of Phillies is 15-for-50 lifetime against Montas, and he’s coming off a confidence-building away start. 

Wheeler is 43-25 with the Phillies, has a good record against these Reds, and should keep Cincinnati off the scoreboard. Phillies OF Nick Castellanos is 3-for-12 lifetime against Montas and saw his three-game hitting streak broken Tuesday. He’ll get something going today and cash this ticket.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Reds vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis

  • Philadelphia opened as a large favorite (-180), and money came in on it, likely as a response to Tuesday’s win. The U.S. markets currently trade as high as -192
  • The game total hasn’t budged off its 7.5 opener, with prices ranging from -110 to -115
  • The Phillies are 5-0 in Wheelers' last 5 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200

Trend to know

The Phillies are 4-0 in Wheelers' last four starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Phillies

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Reds vs Phillies game info

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Date: Wednesday, April 3, 2024
First pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: MLB Network

Starting pitchers

Frankie Montas (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Reds' probable starter Frankie Montas had a tough pair of injury-plagued seasons with the Yankees but opened his season with a gem. He scattered four hits over six innings of shutout ball for his new team against Washington. 

Zack Wheeler (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Wheeler pitched shutout ball with six punchouts through six innings in the Phillies home opener against the Braves. He has struck out 200 or more in two of his previous three seasons.

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Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu Greece. He’s the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the tennis betting podcast, This Week in Tennis.

Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications including SB Nation, FanSided and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports. Phil curates the Chip and Charge Tennis Newsletter and pens a weekly tennis column called “10 Things About the ATP Tour," for Passing Shot Productions. 

His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro men’s and women’s hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.

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