Bobby Witt Jr. was obviously having a great season prior to the All-Star Game, but he's gone nuclear since and is now second in the MLB odds to win AL MVP.
Royals vs Tigers prediction
My best bet
Royals team total Over 4.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Bobby Witt Jr. has been an impossibly tough out since coming out of the All-Star break. The Kansas City Royals shortstop is hitting a crazy .565 with a 1.528 OPS, including five doubles, three dingers, and 13 RBI over 12 games since the break.
That offensive outburst has helped the Royals put up an impressive 5.83 runs per game over that stretch while ranking second in batting average and eighth in OPS and wRC+. I’m betting they can keep swinging some hot sticks at Comerica Park on Thursday night.
The Detroit Tigers, on the other hand, are seemingly in a perpetual state of being one year away from their breakout and were sellers once again at this year’s trade deadline.
That means they're calling upon prospect Keider Montero to make regular starts, including tonight against KC. The 24-year-old right-hander has had a rough introduction to the Big Leagues. He’s allowed 4+ earned runs in five of his seven appearances and 5+ hits in six of them.
The last three starts have been particularly rough. Montero has been lit up for 16 runs (15 earned) on 23 hits over 15 1/3 innings. Mix in a bullpen that ranks 23rd in xFIP and 24th in strikeouts per nine and I like the odds that the Royals top their team total tonight.
Royals vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)
Royals team total Over 4.5
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 RBI
Hunter Renfroe Over 0.5 RBI
You had to know we were going back to Bobby Witt in our SGP. The Royals superstar looks like he's from another planet right now, with more RBI than games played since the All-Star break.
I like him to add to that by driving in another run against the Tigers' inexperienced right-hander. Witt has a better OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season at .997 and 63 of his 76 RBI have come against righties.
Lost in this Witt madness is the fact veteran Hunter Renfroe has also been a run-producing machine. Renfroe's hitting .306 with a 1.046 OPS and 12 RBI over his last 12 games and has at least one RBI in eight of those games. Make this a Royals-centric SGP and add a Renfroe RBI as well.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Royals vs Tigers odds
Royals vs Tigers live odds
Royals vs Tigers opening odds
- Run line: Kansas City -1.5 (+100) | Detroit +1.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Kansas City -170 | Detroit +145
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Royals vs Tigers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Royals opened this AL Central matchup as sizeable -170 favorites but some early bettors like the value in the home underdogs and KC has moved down slightly to the -160 range.
- It's no surprise the Royals are big favorites here. Seth Lugo has been one of the AL's most reliable starters, while the Tigers are countering with a struggling rookie. KC has also won four of the six meetings between these two this season, scoring 8+ runs in all four wins.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and that's where it sits as of Thursday afternoon.
- The Royals have been one of baseball's best Under bets at 46-60 O/U while the Tigers are the opposite at 59-46 O/U. That said, the Over is 5-1 in the six meetings between these twot this season.
Royals vs Tigers trend
The Royals have gone Over their first-five team total in 17 of their last 26 games for +6.45 units and a 20% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Tigers.
Royals vs Tigers game info
| Location: | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Kansas City, Bally Sports Detroit |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Seth Lugo (12-4, 2.38 ERA) |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Keider Montero (1-4, 6.38 ERA) |
Royals vs Tigers latest injuries
Royals vs Tigers weather
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