The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians meet for their rubber match tonight, with Detroit holding a decisive pitching advantage.
Leaning into Jack Flaherty leads tonight's Tigers vs. Guardians predictions.
Read on for my full MLB picks before the first pitch at 6:40 ET on Wednesday, July 24.
Tigers vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Tigers first-five innings moneyline (+115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The instinct may be to defer to the Detroit Tigers after winning four of their last six against the Cleveland Guardians despite being underdogs in two of those outright wins. Detroit's recent success extends beyond facing Cleveland, though, as the Tigers are 7-3 in their last 10 while the Guardians have gone 3-7 in that same stretch.
The instinct could be wrong, if not for this pitching matchup.
But with these two starters, getting Detroit at plus-money on the first five innings is a delightful surprise. Right-hander Jack Flaherty has lasted at least five innings in each of his 17 starts this season. In his last seven, he has given up more than two earned runs just once. He gave up more than one run just twice in that span, including holding these same Guardians to one run in six innings two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee threw well in his most recent start, but he had given up multiple earned runs in his three previous starts, in six of his last 10, and in 11 of 20 starts this season, including yielding four runs to these same Tigers in seven innings two weeks ago. All four of those runs came in the first three innings.
Cleveland is better than Detroit in nearly every regard, but this pitching matchup tilts the Tigers’ way.
Tigers vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Tigers F5 ML
Jack Flaherty Over 17.5 outs
Matt Vierling to hit a home run
Flaherty has fallen short of six innings in five of his last six outings, but the exception was indeed that strong start against the Guardians. And for the most part, Detroit has merely been exercising caution as he holds off back tightness first felt in June. Before that, Flaherty had thrown at least six innings in 10 of 11 starts while throwing no fewer than 87 pitches each time.
Flaherty’s pitch count has buoyed of late, since that initial back worry, and thus an efficient showing should propel him well past six innings.
Matt Vierling has 12 home runs this season. In 90 games, his +650 fits that exact rate, as 12 out of 90 is 13.3%, the exact implied odds of a +650.
But there may be some found value in remembering Vierling hit a third-inning home run off Bibee only two weeks ago.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Tigers vs Guardians odds
Tigers vs Guardians live odds
Tigers vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: Detroit +1.5 (-192) | Cleveland -1.5 (+158)
- Moneyline: Detroit +118 | Cleveland -142
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Tigers vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- This run line opened on Tuesday afternoon with the Tigers +1.5 underdogs at -192 juice, but that one-run loss counterintuitively narrowed the juice as low as -176 on Wednesday morning before steadying at -184.
- Bettors appear to be either on the Tigers’ moneyline or the Guardians’ run line, at BetMGM. 69% of tickets and handle were on the former, while 66% of the run line handle had piled in on Cleveland.
- This pitching matchup drove down the total from its opener of 7.5 to an even 7.0 with minimal juice in either direction.
Tigers vs Guardians trend
The Tigers have hit the run line in 16 of their last 19 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Guardians
Tigers vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSN |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Jack Flaherty (7-5, 3.13 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Tanner Bibbe (8-4, 3.58 ERA) |
Tigers vs Guardians latest injuries
Tigers vs Guardians weather
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