The Boston Red Sox have owned their matchup with the Detroit Tigers in recent years and they’ll look to extend that dominance as their four-game series gets underway tonight at Fenway Park.
Despite coming off a 6-1 loss to the Baltimore Orioles, the Red Sox are slight favorites in the latest MLB odds against a Tigers team that split a double-header against the Pirates yesterday.
It’s a tough call with two .500 teams squaring off here, but my MLB picks and Tigers vs. Red Sox predictions see runs being hard to come by no matter how you slice it.
Tigers vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-125 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
With both the Detroit Tigers and the Boston Red Sox serving up erratic performances at the plate this year, it’s no surprise to see the sportsbooks hesitant to make either a big favorite. I’m not quite prepared to go to the moneyline for my best bet, so I’m instead trusting the pitchers tonight in what feels like a low-scoring scrap.
While a Jack Flaherty vs. Nick Pivetta battle may not scream box-office viewing, they’ve put up strong numbers this year. Most importantly, they’ve trended up in their past five starts.
Flaherty is 1-4 in his last five outings, but he’s posted a 2.00 ERA in that span while pitching at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts. He’s looking more like the ace from his Cardinals days than the pitcher who underwhelmed with the Orioles down the stretch last year.
Meanwhile, Pivetta’s ERA sits at 2.60 in his past five games. Though the Boston starter struggled against the Brewers last weekend, he had been steady in his prior two starts.
All of that makes the Under an appealing pick here. Sure, the Tigers have peppered the Over lately — it’s 8-2 in their last 10 contests — but it’s largely been their opponents doing the run-scoring.
Detroit has been held to three runs or fewer in six of its last eight games, and I don’t see an offensive explosion coming here. The trends aren’t much more encouraging for the Boston bats, who’ve only scored more than three runs once in their past six games.
The Under is also 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and that feels like the value play with two starting pitchers in a good rhythm.
Tigers vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Jack Flaherty Over 6.5 strikeouts
Red Sox moneyline
Flaherty has piled up the strikeouts in his first season in Detroit. He’s seventh in the majors so far with 81 Ks in 2024, and I see another big total coming tonight. Don’t get hung up on his win-loss record — his 1.08 WHIP tells a more meaningful story.
The Red Sox hitters have limited experience against Flaherty, and I expect his four-seam fastball and vicious slider to cut through the Boston lineup.
I’m still picking the hosts to walk away with the victory, though. The Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 matchups against the Tigers, and I like their chances of picking up clutch hits against a wobbly Detroit bullpen.
Pivetta has 13 strikeouts over 8 1/3 innings in his career against the Tigers and this is a good spot for a bounce-back outing after giving up five runs against the Brewers on Saturday.
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Tigers vs Red Sox odds
Tigers vs Red Sox live odds
Tigers vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Detroit +1.5 | Boston -1.5
- Moneyline: Detroit +102 | Boston -112
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Tigers vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Tigers are 9-15 in their last 24 contests, but they’ve covered the run line in 15 of their last 23 away games.
- The Red Sox pitching staff has combined for a 3.27 ERA in 2024 — the third-best mark in baseball — while Detroit’s .235 batting average ranks in the bottom half of the league.
- Detroit has dropped four straight games on the road.
Tigers vs Red Sox trend
Despite serving up some high-scoring games this week, Boston has hit the Under in 31 of its 52 games this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Red Sox
Tigers vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSDET, NESN |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Jack Flaherty (1-4, 3.84 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Nick Pivetta (2-3, 4.20 ERA) |
Tigers vs Red Sox latest injuries
Tigers vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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