Looking for World Series Game 5 analysis? Check out our Dodgers vs. Yankees predictions for Wednesday, October 30.
It could all end tonight when the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers meet for Game 4 of the World Series.
It's been utter domination in the series by L.A. in their three straight wins to open the series including last night's comprehensive win, as the Dodgers held the Yankees scoreless for eight innings.
Whether the brooms come out this evening remains to be seen, but my Dodgers vs. Yankees predictions have eyes on a player prop.
Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, October 29 below, with first pitch at 8:08 p.m. ET on FOX.
Make sure to also check out Andrew Caley's Dodgers vs. Yankees prop picks ahead of game time!
Dodgers vs Yankees prediction
Who will win Dodgers vs Yankees Game 4?
At this point, it's hard to rationalize any other outcome than a Los Angeles Dodgers win. While I'm not betting a side here, that would be my pick.
The New York Yankees have had the head-to-head pitching advantage in at least two of three games, but it hasn't mattered. If they couldn't hit a post-injury Walker Buehler last night, it's reasonable to ask how they'll hit anything that comes out of one of the best bullpens in baseball.
My Dodgers vs Yankees best bet
Luis Gil Under 3.5 hits allowed
(-125 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
New York Yankees starter Luis Gil will enter some elite territory when he becomes the first Yankees rookie pitcher to start in a World Series since 1998.
Given the context of the matchup and his historical performances against L.A., there's plenty of reason to suggest he performs, but it's optional to cash this best bet. That's part of the reason we love it so much.
Aaron Boone was particularly cautious with Gil in his only postseason start. He pitched only four innings against the Guardians and allowed three hits. His pitch count (79) was one of the lowest of the season (not including a few post-injury starts).
While that's now priced into this market, it's not enough. The natural question is, what would happen in an elimination game if Boone exercised that caution in a playoff series in which the Yankees had control?
Relatively speaking, New York's arms are rested. Given the circumstances, anything is on the table, including bringing Game 1 starter Gerrit Cole out of the bullpen in an emergency situation.
That leash being so short plays a major part here, but it's not the only part. I'm high on Gil having some success in this matchup.
He's a strikeout-reliant pitcher, but unlike many, he's not reliant on a chase to get those strikeouts, and that's where the Dodgers become gettable. Even though they've seemingly hit everything in this series, this is still in a team that was average in contact on the season and similar in whiff rate.
It's the same type of team Gil has dominated this season. While dominance may be a bit big of an ask for a young pitcher, this coinciding with his likely limited pitch count makes this my favorite bet on the board.
Will Freddie Freeman hit another home run in Game 4?
How can we doubt Freddie Freeman now? He's played three straight games, hit three straight homers, and has had multiple consecutive plate appearances in which New York has thrown him favorable pitches.
The Freddie Freeman odds have gone up from last night to now +600 here. The logic is pretty straightforward, suggesting there's no way he can homer for a fourth straight game. I don't necessarily subscribe to that, but I worry about him getting many opportunities. If the Yankees can afford to do it, they'll likely pitch around the now World Series MVP odds favorite.
Dodgers vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Luis Gil Under 3.5 hits allowed
Alex Verdugo Over 0.5 hits
While it would be foolish to suggest Alex Verdugo has a good matchup tonight, given it's a bullpen game for L.A., we can safely assume this is solid value.
That's because Verdugo has been making great contact in this series, and many of the bullpen options for the Dodgers will be throwing a ton of pitches into the zone.
He's had three straight games in this series with at least one instance of a triple-digit exit velocity on a ball he's put into play. That includes a two-run homer last night in the bottom of the ninth. I expect him to make that four this evening.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Yankees odds
Dodgers vs Yankees live odds
Dodgers vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +110 | New York -130
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-185) | New York -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Dodgers vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers have had a decisive advantage over the Yankees recently, with five wins in the last five meetings.
- Of those five meetings, the Over has hit four times.
- The Dodgers now enter this game with five wins in its last five postseason games.
- Although the Yankees have lost three straight in this series, New York has still won bettors nearly a unit of profit over the last ten games.
- Our Covers Consensus tool is showing 58% of users are picking the Yankees to win Game 4 outright while 67% of users expect the game to go Over 8.5 runs.
Dodgers vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have cashed their team total Over in 18 of their last 28 home games (+6.15 units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Yankees.
How to watch Dodgers vs Yankees Game 4
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 10-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Live stream: | Hulu, DirectTV, Fubo, Sling TV, YouTube TV, FoxSports.com |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Bullpen game |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (2024 postseason: 0-0, 4.50 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Yankees latest injuries
Dodgers vs Yankees weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
